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A Regression Model derived from Proxy Data for the 11-year Solar Cycle

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  25 April 2016

J.O. Murphy ,
T.T. Veblen  and
H. Sampson
J.O. Murphy
Affiliation:
Department of Mathematics, Monash University, Clayton, Vic 3168
T.T. Veblen
Affiliation:
Department of Geography, University of Colorado, Boulder, USA
H. Sampson
Affiliation:
Department of Mathematics, Monash University, Clayton, Vic 3168
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Abstract

Ring-width time series obtained from Engelmann Spruce trees growing at high altitude sites in the Rocky Mountains, Colorado, exhibit dominant 11-year spectral periodicities. A significant linear cross-correlation also exists between these series and the Zurich series of annual sunspot numbers. A regression model based on these proxy data has been developed for the annual variation of the 11-year solar cycle. It is established that over the calibration period a very high percentage of the variance (40%) in growth patterns, contributed by a single source, can be explained by solar variation. The model correlates with the Zürich series of sunspot numbers at the 99% significance level post 1870 AD. However, over the total period 1700–1870 AD the comparison was found to be not statistically significant at lag 0. Some possible reasons for this are considered.

Type
Solar and Solar System
Information
Publications of the Astronomical Society of Australia , Volume 10 , Issue 3 , 1993 , pp. 196 - 199
Copyright
Copyright © Astronomical Society of Australia 1993

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