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The Predicted and Observed Effect of Chance Success on Multiple-Choice Test Validity

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 January 2025

Lynnette B. Plumlee
Lynnette B. Plumlee*
Affiliation:
Educational Testing Service
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Abstract

Assuming chance to be fully operative, the predicted effect of chance success on test validity when answer options are supplied depends on the number of options, the difficulty of the test and the variance of test scores. Predicted validity values are compared with empirical validity values in an experiment which used the same mathematics test items with and without answer options.

Type
Original Paper
Information
Psychometrika , Volume 19 , Issue 1 , March 1954 , pp. 65 - 70
Copyright
Copyright © 1954 Psychometric Society

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Footnotes

*

Part of a paper presented at the 1952 meetings of the APA. The author acknowledges with appreciation the helpful advice of Professor Harold Gulliksen and the joint support of the project by the College Entrance Examination Board and the Educational Testing Service.

References

Carroll, J. B.. The effect of difficulty and chance success on correlations between items or between tests. Psychometrika, 1945, 10, 1–19CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Guilford, J. P.. The determination of item difficulty when chance success is a factor. Psychometrika, 1936, 1, 259–264CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Plumlee, L. B.. The effect of difficulty and chance success on item-test correlation and on test reliability. Psychometrika, 1952, 17, 69–86CrossRefGoogle Scholar