Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-4rdpn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-05T03:51:57.707Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The Sure Thing Principle

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 February 2022

Richard Jeffrey
Richard Jeffrey*
Affiliation:
Princeton University
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Extract

Here is the example that L. J. Savage (1954, p. 21) uses to adumbrate the principle:

A businessman contemplates buying a certain piece of property. He considers the outcome of the next presidential election relevant to the attractiveness of the purchase. So, to clarify the matter for himself, he asks whether he would buy it if he knew that the, Republican candidate were going to win, and decides that he would do so. Similarly, he considers whether he would buy if he knew that the Democratic candidate were going to win, and again finds that he would do so. Seeing that t he would buy in either, event, he decides that he should buy, even though he does not know which event obtains, or will obtain, as we would ordinarily say.

Type
Part XVII. The Sure-Thing Principle
Information
PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association , Volume 1982 , Issue 2: Volume Two: Symposia and Invited Papers 1982 , 1982 , pp. 718 - 730
Copyright
Copyright © 1983 Philosophy of Science Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Alchian, Armen A. (1953). “The Meaning of Utility Measurement.” American Eoonomic Review 43: 26-50.Google Scholar
Jeffrey, R.C. (1965). The Logic of Decision. New York: McGraw-Hill.Google Scholar
Jeffrey, R.C. (1977). “Savage's Omelet.” In PSA 1976. Volume 2. Edited by Suppe, F. and Asquith, P.D.. East Lansing: Philosophy of Science Association. Pages 361-371.Google Scholar
Jeffrey, R.C. (1983). The Logic of Decision. 2nd reviseded. Chicago: University.of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Machina, Mark. (1981). “Review of Allais and Hagen 1979.” Journal of Mathematical Psychology 24: 163-175.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Machina, Mark. (1982). “‘Expected Utility’ Analysis Without the Independence Axiom.” Econometrica 50: 277-323.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Markowitz, Harry. (1952). “The Utility of Wealth.” Journal of Political Economy 60: 151-158.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Markowitz, Harry. (1959). Portfolio Selection. (Cowles Foundation Monograph #16.) New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Savage, L.J. (1954). The Foundations of Statistics. New York: John Wiley & Sons.Google Scholar