Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-fscjk Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-26T19:09:30.419Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

On the Reality of Chance

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  31 January 2023

John M. Vickers
John M. Vickers*
Affiliation:
Claremont Graduate School
Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Extract

Core share and HTML view are not available for this content. However, as you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

In this paper I consider the question of the reality of chance. This is not what divides contemporary probabilists into the objective and subjective schools. That division is accomplished by the question whether there are objective grounds for the correctness of probability judgments. The subjectivists say that there need not be such grounds, and that probability judgments thus need not be empirically meaningful in the verificationist sense, or perhaps that they are not judgments at all, but rather expressions of attitude. (See [11], pp. 156-198). The objectivists say that the truth conditions for probability judgments are such as the frequencies of traits in populations or the existence of propensities. Objectivists and subjectivists are, however, agreed that there are no objective chances. (See [2], pp. 141, 142; and [12], §16).

There is a Humean argument against the reality of chance which depends mainly upon the premise that we have no experience of it.

Type
Part XIII. Conditionals
Information
PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association , Volume 1978 , Issue 2: Volume Two: Symposia and Invited Papers 1978 , 1978 , pp. 563 - 578
Copyright
Copyright © 1981 Philosophy of Science Association

Footnotes

1

It is a pleasure to acknowledge the careful and helpful advice and criticism of Gordon Brittan.

References

[1] Brittan, Gordon G. Kant’s Theory of Science. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1978.Google Scholar
[2] de Finetti, Bruno. “Foresight: Its Logical Laws, Its Subjective Sources.” (trans.) Kyburg, Henry In Studies in Subjective Probability. Edited by Kyburg, Henry and Smokler, Howard New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1964. Pages 93–158. (Originally published as “La Prévision: Ses lois logigue, ses sources subjectives.” Annales de L’Institut Henri Poincaré 7(1937): 1-68.)Google Scholar
[3] de Finetti, Bruno. Probability, Induction and Statistics. New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1972.Google Scholar
[4] Freud, Sigmund. “Repression.” (trans.) Baines, Cecil M. In Sigmund Freud: Collected Papers. Volume 4. New York: Basic Books, 1959. Pages 84–97. (Originally published as “Die Verdrängung.” Internationale Zeitschrift für ärztliche Psychoanalyse 3(1915): 129-138.)Google Scholar
[5] Hintikka, Jaakko. Logic, Language Games and Information. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1973.Google Scholar
[6] Hume, David. A Treatise of Human Nature, (ed.) Selby-Bigge, L.A. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1888. (Originally published London: John Noone, 1739.)Google Scholar
[7] Husserl, Edmund. Logical Investigations, (trans.) Findlay, J.N. New York: Humanities Press, 1970. (Originally published as Logische Untersuchungen. Halle: M. Niemeyer, 1900.)Google Scholar
[8] Kant, Immanuel. Immanuel Kant’s Critique of Pure Reason. (trans.) Kemp Smith, Norman New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1965. (Originally published as Kritik der reinen Vernunft. 2nd ed., Riga: J.F. Hartknoch, 1787.)Google Scholar
[9] Kant, Immanuel. Critique of Judgment, (trans.) Bernard, J.H. New York: Hafner Publishing Co., 1951. (Originally published as Kritik der Urteilskraft. Berlin & Libau: Lagarde und Friederich, 1790.)Google Scholar
[10] Kant, Immanuel. Logic, (trans.) Hartman, Robert S. and Schwarz, Wolfgang New York: Bobbs-Merrill Company, 1974. (Originally published as Vorlesungen Kants Über Logik. (ed.) G.B. Jäsche. Königsberg: Friedrich Nicolovius, 1800.)Google Scholar
[11] Ramsey, Frank Plumpton. The Foundations of Mathematics and Other Essays, (ed.) Braithwaite, R.B. London: Routledge and Kegan Paul Ltd., 1931.Google Scholar
[12] Reichenbach, Hans. The Theory of Probability, (trans.) Hutten, E.H. and Reichenbach, M. Berkeley: University of California Press, 1949. (Originally published as Wahrscheinlichkeitslehre. Leiden: Sijthoff, 1935.)Google Scholar
[13] Savage, Leonard J. The Foundations of Statistics. New York: John Wiley and Sons, 1954.Google Scholar
[14] Suppes, Patrick. A Probabilistic Theory of Causality. Amsterdam: North Holland Publishing Co., 1970.Google Scholar
[15] Vickers, John M. “On the Phenomenology of Partial Judgment.” Grazer Philosophische Studien 2(1976): 105–132.Google Scholar
[16] Vickers, John M. Belief and Probability. Dordrecht: D. Reidel Publishing Co., 1976.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
[17] Vickers, John M. “On Understanding de Finetti’s Theorem.” In Profile Series: Volume on Donald Davidson. Edited by Hintikka, M. and Vermazen, B. Dordrecht: D. Reidel Publishing Co., 1980.Google Scholar
[18] Walsh, W.H. Kant’s Criticism of Metaphysics. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1975.Google Scholar