Was the 2000 Presidential Election Predictable?

Extract

In late August 2000, at APSA's Annual Meeting, a panel of political scientists offered forecasts for the 2000 presidential election. Although they differed in particulars, most of the forecasters' models incorporated a measure of economic growth plus the president's approval rating. Because the economy was prospering and President Clinton enjoyed phenomenal approval numbers for the eighth year of office, the consensus prediction was a Democratic (Gore) victory by upwards of 6 percentage points. Although political scientists had offered forecasts before previous presidential elections, these political scientists' predictions for 2000 attracted more interest than usual. Their predictions drew exceptional interest both during the campaign, when nobody knew for sure how the election would turn out, and after, when the forecasters had to account for their mistakes.