Hostname: page-component-669899f699-8p65j Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-04-24T22:26:08.028Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

THE PRIMARY MODEL IN 2008

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  08 January 2009

Helmut Norpoth
Helmut Norpoth
Affiliation:
Stony Brook University
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Extract

The October 2008 issue of PS published a symposiumof presidential and congressional forecasts made in the summerleading up to the election. This article is an assessment of theaccuracy of their models.

The Primary Model predicted that Barack Obama would win a narrowvictory with 50.1% of the major-party vote. Obama surpassed thatforecast by just a little more than one standard error (2.5). Howcome the model came as close as it did with a forecast issued asearly as January? What prevented it from coming even closer? Andwhat might be done to improve the model?

Type
Forecasting Recap
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 42 , Issue 1 , January 2009 , pp. 20 - 21
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2009

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Article purchase

Temporarily unavailable