In contemporary parliamentary research, the impact of external economic factors was linked primarily to electoral outcomes or even to the change of power relations within national political systems, whereas attempts to link them to the duration or early termination of the mandates of parliaments and governments were rare. The impact of economic downturns on the survival of national parliaments and governments, as witnessed in recent years, warrants more attention. It is even more intriguing to attempt to relate economic conditions to the survival of parliaments, especially in new democratic countries such as Slovenia, where the process of democratization implied the transformation of the entire economic system—which has remained particularly sensitive and vulnerable to external economic shocks (Mansfeldova Reference Mansfeldova2011, 127).
This article is based on the hypothesis that economic crises have had a particular effect on the social conditions of large groups of population and, consequently, on the political stability manifested by great shifts of support to political parties. The impact of economic shocks is further linked to the stability of parliaments and coalition governments, whereby stability is understood as a parliament’s or a government’s capacity to complete its mandate. Political instability frequently reduces the possibility of regularly scheduled elections and increases the probability of conflictual cabinet termination and early elections.
To evaluate the impact of the economic crisis in Slovenia from 2008 to 2016, we used statistical data from the World Bank (2016) showing time trends in main economic indicators—namely, the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate and changes in the unemployment rate during this period. We compared these data with those from seven other Central European countries: Italy, Hungary, Czech Republic, Austria, Germany, Spain, and Croatia. Until 2008, positive trends were evident in GDP growth in all seven countries. The negative effects of the economic crisis in Slovenia first became clearly evident in 2009, when the Slovenian GDP declined by 7.8%. Within the comparison countries, a similar decline was observed only in Hungary (−6.6%) and Croatia (−7.4%). The second indicator that had the most significant direct effect on social conditions of Slovenian citizens was the unemployment rate. It showed a drastic change, dramatically increasing after 2009 from 4.4%, to 8.8% in 2012, and to 10.1% in 2013. Similar changes were observed during the same period in Hungary, Czech Republic, and Croatia.
Our research confirmed the results of previous investigations indicating that prolonged weak economic conditions have a strong impact on political stability, survival of governments, and early termination of parliaments in Western Europe (Warwick Reference Warwick1992, 885).
These basic time trends in the main economic indicators are strongly connected to rates of the Slovene National Assemblies’ and governments’ terminations. In 2008–2016, there were two early elections and one change of government by a constructive no-confidence vote. The Slovene experience illustrates that the effects of an economic crisis on the stability of the National Assembly and the governments were not direct and immediate. The worsening of social conditions for many citizens had a significant impact on their support for traditional political parties, which were unable to find efficient measures to exit the crisis. These shifts in the support for political parties were demonstrated by high electoral volatility in comparison with previous elections and with other states of the region. Whereas the electoral volatility in Slovenia from 1992 to 2000 was 22% (Bielasiak Reference Bielasiak2005, 331), it increased to 40% from 2004 to 2014. As a consequence, several new and insufficiently consolidated parties entered the National Assembly. New coalitions were formed among old and new political parties, and governments formed on the basis of ad hoc anti-crisis programs. Subject to pressure from the EU, these governments used constitutional provisions to exert influence on the legislative process. They did so by prioritizing specific matters on the agenda and using fast-track procedures. This process brought the National Assembly into a subservient position. A particular characteristic of this period of economic crisis was the absence of legislative-strengthening projects and expert counseling. This lack was especially unfortunate given that the National Assembly had no previous experience in dealing with an economic crisis or countering its effects. Our research confirmed the results of previous investigations indicating that prolonged weak economic conditions have a strong impact on political stability, survival of governments, and early termination of parliaments in Western Europe (Warwick Reference Warwick1992, 885). It also contributes new knowledge to existing theory by attempting to explain the effects of an economic crisis on a country that has been especially vulnerable to external economic shocks. At the same time, our analysis shows the key influence of the EU in the economic and financial policy areas of a member country, especially when the EU recommends a number of national policy goals and austerity measures (Olson and Ilonszki Reference Olson and Ilonszki2011, 250).
