Iowa: The Most Representative State?

Extract

There are perhaps many good arguments for Iowa maintaining its “firstin the nation” status, in terms of the presidential nominationprocess. The strongest, however, would seem to be an argument thatit is representative of the nation as a whole. That is, somehow,Iowa is a microcosm of the national political forces, faithfullymirroring the relevant electoral structures and choices of themacro-stage. This belief is certainly held by some. Palo AltoCounty, in northwestern Iowa, has long been considered apresidential bellwether, faithfully voting with the winningcandidate in a series beginning in 1916. But as media worthy as thatfact might be, it seems most likely a product of chance, for itsheavily rural, northern European-descended population make it farfrom demographically representative of contemporary America(Lewis-Beck and Rice 1992,4–6). A similar charge is commonly made today against the state as awhole, by political commentators across the land. But is it true? IsIowa really unrepresentative? That is the question we seek toanswer.