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Forecasting the 2012 US Presidential Election: Lessons from aState-by-State Political Economy Model

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  27 September 2012

Bruno Jerôme  and
Véronique Jerôme-Speziari
Bruno Jerôme
Affiliation:
University of Paris 2
Véronique Jerôme-Speziari
Affiliation:
University of Paris Sud 11
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Extract

Since 2008, the economic fallout from the subprime mortgage crisis has led to thedefeat of a number of incumbents in the world's major democracies. For instance, inthe former EU-15, eight countries (including France) have ousted their incumbents infavor of new leaders. The United States is no exception, and the 2012 USpresidential election will see Barack Obama running for a second term duringdifficult economic times. After hitting a high of 10% in October 2009, the nation'sunemployment rate decreased to 8.2% in May 2012. Nonetheless, this is still 0.7percentage point higher than what Ronald Reagan faced in 1984 or what confrontedGeorge H.W. Bush in 1992 as they ran for their second terms. Looking at measures ofpresidential popularity for the month of May since 1980, Barack Obama's approvalrating is at 46% in the Gallup polls, which is the third-worst rating after GeorgeW. Bush (30% in 2008) and George H.W. Bush (39.4% in 1992). Given Barack Obama'sapproval rating and the current national unemployment level, must we conclude thatBarack Obama is irremediably on the ropes against Mitt Romney in 2012?

Type
Symposium: Forecasting the 2012 American National Elections
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 45 , Issue 4 , October 2012 , pp. 663 - 668
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2012 

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