Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-dlnhk Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-27T20:46:16.439Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Forecasting the 2012 French Presidential Election

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 March 2012

Martial Foucault  and
Richard Nadeau
Martial Foucault
Affiliation:
University of Montreal
Richard Nadeau
Affiliation:
University of Montreal
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Who will win the next French presidential election? Forecasting electoral results from political-economy models is a recent tradition in France. In this article, we pursue this effort by estimating a vote function based on both local and national data for the elections held between 1981 and 2007. This approach allows us to circumvent the small N problem and to produce more robust and reliable results. Based on a model including economic (unemployment) and political (approval and previous results) variables, we predict the defeat, although by a relatively small margin, of the right-wing incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy in the second round of the French presidential election to be held in May 2012.

Type
Special to PS
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 45 , Issue 2 , April 2012 , pp. 218 - 222
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2012

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Auberger, Antoine. 2010. “Popularity and Vote: Forecasting the 2007 French Presidential Election.” Canadian Journal of Political Science 43: 123–36.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Campbell, James E. 1992. “Forecasting the Presidential Vote in the States.” American Journal of Political Science 36: 386–407.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dubois, Éric, and Fauvelle-Aymar, Christine. 2004. “Vote Functions in France and the 2002 Election Forecast.” In The French Voter: Before and After the 2002 Elections, ed. Lewis-Beck, M.S.. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.Google Scholar
Jérôme, Bruno, and Jérôme-Speziari, Véronique. 2004. “Forecasting the 2002 Elections: Lessons from a Political Economy Model.” In The French Voter: Before and After the 2002 Elections, ed. Lewis-Beck, M.S.. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.Google Scholar
Greene, William H., 2008. Econometric Analysis. 6th edition. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall.Google Scholar
Lafay, Jean-Dominique, Facchini, François, and Auberger, Antoine. 2007. “Modèles politico-économétriques et prévisions électorales pour mai 2007.” Revue Française d'Economie 21: 5–23.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S. 2005. “Election Forecasting: Principles and Practice.” British Journal of Politics and International Relations 7: 145–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., Bélanger, Éric, and Fauvelle-Aymar, Christine. 2008. “Forecasting the 2007 French Presidential Election: Ségolène Royal and the Iowa Model.” French Politics 6: 106–15.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Rice, Tom W.. 1992. Forecasting Elections. Washington, DC: CQ Press.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Stegmaier, Mary. 2007. “Economic Models of Voting.” In The Oxford Handbook of Political Behavior, ed. Dalton, R. and Klingemann, H.-D., 518–37. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Nadeau, Richard, Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Bélanger, Éric. 2010. “Electoral Forecasting in France: A Multi-Equation Solution.” International Journal of Forecasting 26: 11–18.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nannestad, Peter, and Paldam, Martin. 1994. “The VP-function: A Survey of the Literature on Vote and Popularity Functions after 25 Years.” Public Choice 79: 213–45.CrossRefGoogle Scholar