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FORECASTING THE 2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WITH THEFISCAL MODEL: THE CHALLENGE MET

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  08 January 2009

Alfred G. Cuzán  and
Charles M. Bundrick
Alfred G. Cuzán
Affiliation:
University of West Florida
Charles M. Bundrick
Affiliation:
University of West Florida
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Extract

The October 2008 issue of PS published a symposiumof presidential and congressional forecasts made in the summerleading up to the election. This article is an assessment of theaccuracy of their models.

The presidential election forecast made with the Fiscal Model threemonths before Election Day put the incumbents' share of thetwo-party vote (VOTE2) at 48% (Cuzán and Bundrick 2008). As of the time ofthis writing, it appears the incumbent-party ticket of John McCainand Sarah Palin took a little less than that (around 46.5%). At1.5%, the error is less than 2.3%, which is Campbell's (2008, 680) “benchmark” for a“quite accurate” forecast. This is the second time in a row that theFiscal Model ranks among the best performers (Campbell 2005,23).

Type
Forecasting Recap
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 42 , Issue 1 , January 2009 , pp. 23
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2009

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References

Campbell, James E. 2008. “Editor's Introduction: Forecasting the 2008 National Elections.” PS: Political Science and Politics 41 (October): 679–81.Google Scholar
Campbell, James E. 2005. “Introduction—Assessments of the 2004 Presidential Vote Forecasts.” PS: Political Science and Politics 38 (January): 23.Google Scholar
Cuzán, Alfred G., and Bundrick, Charles M.. 2008. “Forecasting the 2008 Presidential Election: A Challenge for the Fiscal Model.” PS: Political Science and Politics 41 (October): 717–22.Google Scholar
Fair, Ray. 2006. “The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 2004 Update.” http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/RAYFAIR/PDF/2006CHTM.HTM.Google Scholar