Forecasting in a Polarized Era: The Time for Change Model and the 2012Presidential Election

Extract

The 2012 presidential campaign takes place at a time of deep political division inthe United States. Democrats and Republicans differ sharply over Barack Obama'sperformance in office as well as a wide range of issues ranging from governmentspending and health care to immigration and gay marriage. These divisions areshaping the strategies of the candidates and the outlook for November. Overwhelmingmajorities of Democrats and Republicans, including overwhelming majorities ofindependents who lean toward a party, can be expected to support their own party'snominee. As a result, the outcome will depend on which party does a better job ofmobilizing its supporters and appealing to a small group of swing voters in 10 or 12battleground states.