Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-tf8b9 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-30T19:40:22.301Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The Campbell Collection of Presidential Election Forecasts, 1984–2016: A Review

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 October 2020

Alfred G. Cuzán Open the ORCID record for Alfred G. Cuzán [Opens in a new window]
Alfred G. Cuzán*
Affiliation:
University of West Florida
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. Please use the Get access link above for information on how to access this content.
Image of the first page of this content. For PDF version, please use the ‘Save PDF’ preceeding this image.'
Type
Forecasting the 2020 US Elections
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 54 , Issue 1 , January 2021 , pp. 99 - 103
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2020. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the American Political Science Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Campbell, James E. 1994. “Forecasts of the 1992 Presidential Election.” Political Methodologist 5 (2): 5–9.Google Scholar
Campbell, James E. 2001. “The Referendum that Didn’t Happen: The Forecasts of the 2000 Presidential Election.” PS: Political Science & Politics 34 (1): 33–38.Google Scholar
Campbell, James E. 2004. “Introduction—The 2004 Presidential Election Forecasts.” PS: Political Science & Politics 37 (4): 733–35.Google Scholar
Campbell, James E. 2008. “Editor’s Introduction: Forecasting the 2008 National Elections.” PS: Political Science & Politics 41 (4): 679–82.Google Scholar
Campbell, James E. 2012. “Forecasting the 2012 American National Elections.” PS: Political Science & Politics 45 (4): 610–13.Google Scholar
Campbell, James E. 2016. “Forecasting the 2016 American National Elections.” PS: Political Science & Politics 49 (4): 649–54.Google Scholar
Campbell, James E., and Garand, James C.. 2000. Before the Vote: Forecasting American National Elections. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.Google Scholar
Campbell, James E., and Mann, Thomas E.. 1992. “Forecasting the 1992 Election: A User’s Guide to the Models.” Brookings Review 10 (4) 22–27.Google Scholar
Cuzán, Alfred G., and Bundrick, Charles M.. 2005. “Deconstructing the 2004 Presidential Election Forecasts: The Fiscal Model and the Campbell Collection Compared.” PS: Political Science & Politics 35 (2): 255–62.Google Scholar
Cuzán, Alfred G., and Heggen, Richard J.. 1984. “A Fiscal Model of Presidential Elections in the United States: 1880–1980.” Presidential Studies Quarterly 14 (1): 98–108.Google Scholar
Graefe, Andreas. 2018. “Predicting Elections: Experts, Polls, and Fundamentals.” Judgment and Decision Making 13 (4): 334–44.Google Scholar
Graefe, Andreas, Armstrong, J. Scott, Jones, Randall J. Jr., and Cuzán, Alfred G.. 2014. “Combining Forecasts: An Application to Elections.” International Journal of Forecasting 30 (1): 43–54.Google Scholar
Graefe, Andreas, Armstrong, J. Scott, Jones, Randall J. Jr., and Cuzán, Alfred G.. 2017. “Assessing the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Popular Vote Forecasts.” In The 2016 Presidential Election: The Causes and Consequences of a Political Earthquake, eds. Cavari, A., Powell, R, and Mayer, K., 137–58. Lanham, MD: Lexington Books.Google Scholar
Jerôme, Bruno, and Jerôme-Speziari, Véronique. 2016. “State-Level Forecasts for the 2016 US Presidential Elections: Political Economy Model Predicts Hillary Clinton Victory.” PS: Political Science & Politics 50 (2): 680–86.Google Scholar
Jones, Randall J. Jr., and Cuzán, Alfred G.. 2013. “Expert Judgment in Forecasting American Presidential Elections: A Preliminary Evaluation.” Paper presented at the 2013 meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2303052.Google Scholar
Klarner, Carl E. 2012. “State-Level Forecasts of the 2012 Federal and Gubernatorial Elections.” PS: Political Science & Politics 45 (4): 655–62.Google Scholar
Leip, David. 2020. “United States Presidential Election Results.” Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections. https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/ (accessed August 19, 2020).Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S. 1985. “Elections Forecasts in 1984: How Accurate Were They?” PS: Political Science & Politics 18 (1): 53–62.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Stegmaier, Mary. 2014. “Weather, Elections, Forecasts: After Richardson.” PS: Political Science & Politics 47 (2): 322–25.Google Scholar
PollyVote Project. “Evidence-Based Election Forecasting since 2004: Combining Forecasts.” https://pollyvote.com/en/ Google Scholar
Wink, Kenneth A. 2018–19. “Forecasting Models and the Presidential Vote.” Political Research Quarterly 134 (2): 193–216.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Cuzán supplementary material

Data Appendix

Download Cuzán supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 94.9 KB