Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-gvvz8 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-25T19:34:26.205Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

The PollyVote Forecast for the 2016 American Presidential Election

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  12 October 2016

Andreas Graefe
Affiliation:
Columbia University
Randall J. Jones Jr.
Affiliation:
University of Central Oklahoma
J. Scott Armstrong
Affiliation:
Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania
Alfred G. Cuzán
Affiliation:
University of West Florida

Abstract

Image of the first page of this content. For PDF version, please use the ‘Save PDF’ preceeding this image.'
Type
Symposium: Forecasting the 2016 American National Elections
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2016 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Armstrong, J. Scott. 2001. “Combining Forecasts.” In Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners. Armstrong, J. Scott, Editor. New York: Springer, 417–39.Google Scholar
Armstrong, J. Scott and Cuzán, Alfred G.. 2006. “Index Methods for Forecasting: An Application to the American Presidential Elections.” Foresight: International Journal of Applied Forecasting 3: 1013.Google Scholar
Armstrong, J. Scott and Graefe, Andreas. 2011. “Predicting Elections from Biographical Information about Candidates: A Test of the Index Method.” Journal of Business Research 64 (7): 699706.Google Scholar
Armstrong, J. Scott, Green, Kesten C., and Graefe, Andreas. 2015. “Golden Rule of Forecasting: Be Conservative.” Journal of Business Research 68 (8): 1717–31.Google Scholar
Campbell, James E. 2013 “Recap: Forecasting the 2012 Election,” PS: Political Science & Politics 46 (1): 37.Google Scholar
Cuzán, Alfred G., Armstrong, J. Scott, and Jones, Randall J. Jr. 2005a. “How we Computed the PollyVote.” Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting 1 (1): 51–2.Google Scholar
Cuzán, Alfred G., Armstrong, J. Scott, and Jones, Randall J. Jr.. 2005b. “The PollyVote: Applying the Combination Principle in Forecasting to the 2004 Presidential Election.” Paper presented at the 2005 International Symposium on Forecasting, San Antonio.Google Scholar
Cuzán, Alfred G. and Bundrick, Charles M.. 2009. “Predicting Presidential Elections with Equally Weighted Regressors in Fair’s Equation and the Fiscal Model.” Political Analysis 17 (3): 333–40.Google Scholar
Franklin, Benjamin. 1956. “Benjamin Franklin’s 1772 letter to Joseph Priestley.” Available: http://www.procon.org/view.background-resource.php?resourceID=1474.Google Scholar
Graefe, Andreas. 2013. “Issue and Leader Voting in US Presidential Elections.” Electoral Studies 32 (4): 644–57.Google Scholar
Graefe, Andreas. 2014. “Accuracy of Vote Expectation Surveys in Forecasting Elections.” Public Opinion Quarterly 78 (S1): 204–32.Google Scholar
Graefe, Andreas. 2015a. “Accuracy Gains of Adding Vote Expectation Surveys to a Combined Forecast of US Presidential Election Outcomes.” Research & Politics 2 (1): 15.Google Scholar
Graefe, Andreas. 2015b. “Improving Forecasts Using Equally Weighted Predictors.” Journal of Business Research 68 (8): 1792–99.Google Scholar
Graefe, Andreas. 2016. “Political Markets.” Forthcoming (subject to changes) in the SAGE Handbook of Electoral Behavior. Available: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/292615991_Political_markets.Google Scholar
Graefe, Andreas, Armstrong, J. Scott, Jones, Randall J. Jr., and Cuzán, Alfred G.. 2014a. “Combining Forecasts: An Application to Elections.” International Journal of Forecasting 30 (1): 4354.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Graefe, Andreas, Armstrong, J. Scott, Jones, Randall J. Jr., and Cuzán, Alfred G.. 2014b. “Accuracy of Combined Forecasts for the 2012 Presidential Elections: The PollyVote.” PS: Political Science & Politics 47 (2): 427–31.Google Scholar
Graefe, Andreas, Armstrong, J. Scott, Jones, Randall J. Jr., and Cuzán, Alfred G.. 2009. “Combined Forecasts of the 2008 Election: The PollyVote.” Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting 12: 4142.Google Scholar
Graefe, Andreas, Küchenhoff, Helmut, Stierle, Veronika, and Riedl, Bernard. 2015. “Limitations of Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging for Forecasting Social Science Problems,” International Journal of Forecasting 31 (3): 943951.Google Scholar
Jones, Randall J. Jr. 2008. “The State Of Presidential Election Forecasting: The 2004 Experience.” International Journal of Forecasting 24 (2): 310–21.Google Scholar
Jones, Randall J. Jr. and Cuzán, Alfred G.. 2013. “Expert Judgment in Forecasting American Presidential Elections: A Preliminary Evaluation.” Presented at the 2013 meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S. and Skalaban, Andrew. 1989. “Citizen Forecasting: Can Voters See into the Future?” British Journal of Political Science 19 (1): 146153.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lichtman, Alan J. 2005. “The Keys To The White House: An Index Forecast For 2008.” International Journal of Forecasting 24 (2): 301–09.Google Scholar