Hostname: page-component-669899f699-rg895 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-05-03T05:35:57.116Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Forecasting the 2012 Presidential Election with the FiscalModel

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  27 September 2012

Alfred G. Cuzán
Alfred G. Cuzán*
Affiliation:
University of West Florida
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Extract

In March 2009, at a time when President Obama was basking in the glow of thehoneymoon with the public every new president enjoys, I asked, “Will Barack Obama bea one-term president?” What prompted me to pose so impertinent a question at sohopeful a time was that the Office of Management and Budget was projecting that thatyear the federal government would spend 28% of gross domestic product (GDP). Thisamounted to a 7% point increase compared to the previous year, the largest peacetimeone-year jump since 1930. The most recent estimate for 2012 is that federal outlayswill take up 24.3% of GDP, up 3.5% points since 2008. This is the second-largestpeacetime increase from one election year to the next since 1880, edged out only byFranklin D. Roosevelt's first-term surge of 3.6% points.

Type
Symposium: Forecasting the 2012 American National Elections
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 45 , Issue 4 , October 2012 , pp. 648 - 650
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2012 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Article purchase

Temporarily unavailable

References

Cuzán, Alfred G., and Budrick, Charles M.. 2004. “Fiscal Effects on Presidential Elections: A Forecast for 2004.” Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago, September.Google Scholar
Cuzán, Alfred G., and Budrick, Charles M.. 2008. “Forecasting the 2008 Presidential Election: A Challenge for the Fiscal Model.” PS: Political Science and Politics 41 (4): 717–22.Google Scholar
Cuzán, Alfred G., Heggen, Richard J., and Budrick, Charles M.. 2009. “Fiscal Policy in American Presidential Elections: A Simulation.” Simulation 85 (1): 5–15.Google Scholar
Fair, Ray C. 2012. Vote-Share Equations: Predictions. http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/vote2012/index2.htm.Google Scholar
Lichtman, Allan. 2010. “The Keys to the White House: Forecast for 2012.” Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Issue 18, 33–37.Google Scholar