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Ensemble Predictions of the 2012 US PresidentialElection

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  27 September 2012

Jacob M. Montgomery ,
Florian M. Hollenbach  and
Michael D. Ward
Jacob M. Montgomery
Affiliation:
Washington University, St. Louis
Florian M. Hollenbach
Affiliation:
Duke University
Michael D. Ward
Affiliation:
Duke University
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Extract

For more than two decades, political scientists have created statistical modelsaimed at generating out-of-sample predictions of presidential elections. In 2004 and2008, PS: Political Science and Politics published symposia of thevarious forecasting models prior to Election Day. This exercise serves to validatemodels based on accuracy by garnering additional support for those that mostaccurately foretell the ultimate election outcome. Implicitly, these symposia assertthat accurate models best capture the essential contexts and determinants ofelections. In part, therefore, this exercise aims to develop the “best” model of theunderlying data generating process. Scholars comparatively evaluate their models bysetting their predictions against electoral results while also giving some attentionto the models' inherent plausibility, parsimony, and beauty.

Type
Symposium: Forecasting the 2012 American National Elections
Information
PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 45 , Issue 4 , October 2012 , pp. 651 - 654
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2012 

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