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Published online by Cambridge University Press: 28 September 2023
We carry out the first statistical study that investigates the flare-coronal mass ejections (CMEs) association rate as function of the flare intensity and the total unsigned magnetic flux (ΦAR) of ARs that produces the flare. Our results show that flares of the same GOES class but originating from an AR of larger ΦAR, are much more likely confined. This implies that ΦAR is a decisive quantity describing the eruptive character of a flare, as it provides a global parameter relating to the strength of the background field confinement. We also calculated the mean twist values α in regions close to the polarity inversion line and proposed a new parameter α / ΦAR to measure the probability for a large flare to be associated with a CME. We find that the new parameter α/ ΦAR is well able to distinguish eruptive flares from confined flares.