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Sandpile Models and Solar Flares: Eigenfunction Decomposition for Data Assimilation

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  24 July 2018

Antoine Strugarek Open the ORCID record for Antoine Strugarek [Opens in a new window] ,
Allan S. Brun ,
Paul Charbonneau  and
Nicole Vilmer
Antoine Strugarek
Affiliation:
Laboratoire AIM Paris-Saclay, CEA/Irfu Université Paris-Diderot CNRS/INSU, F- 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette email: [email protected] Département de physique, Université de Montréal, C.P. 6128 Succ. Centre-Ville, Montréal, QC H3C-3J7, Canada
Allan S. Brun
Affiliation:
Laboratoire AIM Paris-Saclay, CEA/Irfu Université Paris-Diderot CNRS/INSU, F- 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette email: [email protected]
Paul Charbonneau
Affiliation:
Département de physique, Université de Montréal, C.P. 6128 Succ. Centre-Ville, Montréal, QC H3C-3J7, Canada
Nicole Vilmer
Affiliation:
LESIA, Observatoire Paris, CNRS, UPMC, Universite Paris-Diderot, 5 place Jules Janssen, 92195 Meudon, France
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Abstract

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The largest solar flares, of class X and above, are often associated with strong energetic particle acceleration. Based on the self-similar distribution of solar flares, self-organized criticality models such as sandpiles can be used to successfully reproduce their statistics. However, predicting strong (and rare) solar flares turns out to be a significant challenge. We build here on an original idea based on the combination of minimalistic flare models (sandpiles) and modern data assimilation techniques (4DVar) to predict large solar flares. We discuss how to represent a sandpile model over a reduced set of eigenfunctions to improve the efficiency of the data assimilation technique. This improvement is model-independent and continues to pave the way towards efficient near real-time solutions for predicting solar flares.

Keywords

Sun: flares
Type
Contributed Papers
Information
Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union , Volume 13 , Symposium S335: Space Weather of the Heliosphere: Processes and Forecasts , July 2017 , pp. 250 - 253
Copyright
Copyright © International Astronomical Union 2018 

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