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The Role of Empirical Space-Weather Models (in a World of Physics-Based Numerical Simulations)

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  24 July 2018

Mathew J. Owens Open the ORCID record for Mathew J. Owens [Opens in a new window] ,
Pete Riley  and
Tim Horbury
Mathew J. Owens
Affiliation:
Space and Atmospheric Electricity Group, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Earley Gate, PO Box 243, Reading RG6 6BB, UK email: [email protected]
Pete Riley
Affiliation:
Predictive Science Inc., 9990 Mesa Rim Rd, Suite 170, San Diego, CA 92121, USA email: [email protected]
Tim Horbury
Affiliation:
Blackett Laboratory, Imperial College London, London SW7 2BZ, UK email: [email protected]
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Abstract

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Advanced forecasting of space weather requires prediction of near-Earth solar-wind conditions on the basis of remote solar observations. This is typically achieved using numerical magnetohydrodynamic models initiated by photospheric magnetic field observations. The accuracy of such forecasts is being continually improved through better numerics, better determination of the boundary conditions and better representation of the underlying physical processes. Thus it is not unreasonable to conclude that simple, empirical solar-wind forecasts have been rendered obsolete. However, empirical models arguably have more to contribute now than ever before. In addition to providing quick, cheap, independent forecasts, simple empirical models aid in numerical model validation and verification, and add value to numerical model forecasts through parameterization, uncertainty estimation and ‘downscaling’ of sub-grid processes.

Keywords

solar windsolar-terrestrial relations
Type
Contributed Papers
Information
Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union , Volume 13 , Symposium S335: Space Weather of the Heliosphere: Processes and Forecasts , July 2017 , pp. 254 - 257
Copyright
Copyright © International Astronomical Union 2018 

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