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Nonlinear Prediction of Solar Cycle 25

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  27 November 2018

Volkan Sarp  and
Ali Kılçık
Volkan Sarp
Affiliation:
Faculty of Science, Department of Space Science and Technologies, Akdeniz University, Antalya, Turkey email: [email protected]; [email protected]
Ali Kılçık
Affiliation:
Faculty of Science, Department of Space Science and Technologies, Akdeniz University, Antalya, Turkey email: [email protected]; [email protected]
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Abstract

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Solar activity is a chaotic process and there are various approximations to forecast its long term and short term variations. But there is no prediction method that predicts the solar activity exactly. In this study, a nonlinear prediction approach was applied to international sunspot numbers and performance of predictions was tested for the last 5 solar cycles. These predictions are in good agreement with observed values of the tested solar cycles. According to these results, end of cycle 24 is expected at February, 2020 with 7.7 smoothed monthly mean sunspot number and maximum of cyle 25 is expected at May, 2024 with 119.6 smoothed monthly mean sunspot number.

Keywords

Sun: sunspotsSun: activitymethods: data analysis
Type
Contributed Papers
Information
Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union , Volume 13 , Symposium S340: Long-term Datasets for the Understanding of Solar and Stellar Magnetic Cycles , February 2018 , pp. 321 - 322
Copyright
Copyright © International Astronomical Union 2018 

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