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Global evolution of solar magnetic fields and prediction of activity cycles

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  24 September 2020

Irina N. Kitiashvili Open the ORCID record for Irina N. Kitiashvili [Opens in a new window]
Irina N. Kitiashvili*
Affiliation:
NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, MS 258-6, Mountain View, USA email: mailto:[email protected]
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Abstract

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Prediction of solar activity cycles is challenging because physical processes inside the Sun involve a broad range of multiscale dynamics that no model can reproduce and because the available observations are highly limited and cover mostly surface layers. Helioseismology makes it possible to probe solar dynamics in the convective zone, but variations in differential rotation and meridional circulation are currently available for only two solar activity cycles. It has been demonstrated that sunspot observations, which cover over 400 years, can be used to calibrate the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmaikin dynamo model, and that the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method can be used to link the modeled magnetic fields to sunspot observations and make reliable predictions of a following activity cycle. However, for more accurate predictions, it is necessary to use actual observations of the solar magnetic fields, which are available only for the last four solar cycles. In this paper I briefly discuss the influence of the limited number of available observations on the accuracy of EnKF estimates of solar cycle parameters, the criteria to evaluate the predictions, and application of synoptic magnetograms to the prediction of solar activity.

Keywords

Sun: interiormagnetic fieldssunspotsstars: activitymethods: data analysisstatistical
Type
Contributed Papers
Information
Proceedings of the International Astronomical Union , Volume 15 , Symposium S354: Solar and Stellar Magnetic Fields: Origins and Manifestations , June 2019 , pp. 147 - 156
Copyright
© International Astronomical Union 2020

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