Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-r5fsc Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-24T15:33:18.005Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Forecasting the Number of End-of-Life Vehicles: State of the Art Report

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 May 2022

H. Xia ,
J. Han  and
J. Milisavljevic-Syed
H. Xia*
Affiliation:
University of Liverpool, United Kingdom
J. Han
Affiliation:
University of Liverpool, United Kingdom
J. Milisavljevic-Syed
Affiliation:
University of Liverpool, United Kingdom
*
[email protected]

Abstract

Core share and HTML view are not available for this content. However, as you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

Academics and practitioners have shown a growing interest in automobile reverse supply chain (RSC) management as a result of the rise of circular economy and the development of Industry 4.0. Accurate quantity prediction enhances the efficiency of all decision levels in automobile RSC, not only the recovery of end-of-life vehicles (ELVs). Therefore, a comprehensive state-of-the-art review, evaluating ELVs quantity forecasting methodologies and summarizing the main variables influencing forecasting outcomes, is conducted to throw shed light on future research directions.

Keywords

sustainabilitydesign reviewcircular economychange prediction
Type
Article
Information
Proceedings of the Design Society , Volume 2: DESIGN2022 , May 2022 , pp. 1169 - 1178
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BYCreative Common License - NCCreative Common License - ND
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is unaltered and is properly cited. The written permission of Cambridge University Press must be obtained for commercial re-use or in order to create a derivative work.
Copyright
The Author(s), 2022.

References

Alwaeli, M. (2016), “End-of-life vehicles recovery and recycling and the route to comply with eu directive targets”, Environment Protection Engineering, Vol. 42 No. 1, pp. 191–202. 10.37190/epe160114CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Andersen, F. M., Larsen, H. V. and Skovgaard, M. (2007), “A European model for the number of End-of-Life Vehicles”, International Journal of Automotive Technology and Management, Vol. 7 No. 4, pp. 343–355. 10.1504/ijatm.2007.017065CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Azmi, M. and Tokai, A. (2017), “Electric vehicle and end-of-life vehicle estimation in Malaysia 2040”, Environment Systems and Decisions, Vol. 37, pp. 451–464. 10.1007/s10669-017-9647-4Google Scholar
D'Adamo, I., Gastaldi, M. and Rosa, P. (2020), “Recycling of end-of-life vehicles: Assessing trends and performances in Europe”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 152, pp. 119887–119900. 10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119887CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Demirel, E., Demirel, N. and Gökçen, H. (2016), “A mixed integer linear programming model to optimize reverse logistics activities of end-of-life vehicles in Turkey”, Journal of Cleaner Production, Vol. 112, pp. 2101–2113. 10.1016/j.jclepro.2014.10.079CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Despeisse, M., Kishita, Y., Nakano, M. and Barwood, M. (2015), “Towards a Circular Economy for End-of-Life Vehicles: A Comparative Study UK – Japan”, Procedia CIRP, Vol. 29, pp. 668–673. 10.1016/j.procir.2015.02.122CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ene, S. and Öztürk, N. (2017), “Grey modelling based forecasting system for return flow of end-of-life vehicles”, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 115, pp. 155–166. 10.1016/j.techfore.2016.09.030CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hamilton, J. D. (2020) Time series analysis, Princeton university press, Princeton.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hao, H., Zhang, Q., Wang, Z. and Zhang, J. (2018), “Forecasting the number of end-of-life vehicles using a hybrid model based on grey model and artificial neural network”, Journal of Cleaner Production, Vol. 202, pp. 684–696. 10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.08.176CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hu, S. and Kurasaka, H. (2013), “Projection of end-of-life vehicle (ELV) population at provincial level of China and analysis on the gap between the future requirements and the current situation of ELV treatment in China”, Journal of Material Cycles and Waste Management, Vol. 15 No. 2, pp. 154–170. 10.1007/s10163-012-0102-9CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hu, S. and Wen, Z. (2015), “Why does the informal sector of end-of-life vehicle treatment thrive? A case study of China and lessons for developing countries in motorization process”, Resources, Conservation and Recycling, Vol. 95, pp. 91–99. 10.1016/j.resconrec.2014.12.003CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Julong, D. (1989), “Introduction to grey system theory”, The Journal of Grey System, Vol. 1, pp. 1–24.Google Scholar
Kanari, N., Pineau, J. L. and Shallari, S. (2003), “End-of-life vehicle recycling in the european union”, Journal of The Minerals, Metals and Materials Society, Vol. 55 No. 8, pp. 15–19. 10.1007/s11837-003-0098-7CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kilde, N. A. and Larsen, H. V. (2001) Scrapping of passenger cars in 16 accession countries to the European Union until 2015, Risø National Laboratory, Denmark.Google Scholar
Kosacka-Olejnik, M. J. I.-P. (2019), “How manage waste from End-of-Life Vehicles?-method proposal”, IFAC-PapersOnLine, Vol. 52 No. 13, pp. 1733–1737. 10.1016/j.ifacol.2019.11.451CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Li, Y.-y. and Wang, L.-h. (2015), “Prediction and recovery of end-of-life vehicles of China”, Ecological Economy, Vol. 6, pp. 342–349.Google Scholar
Li, Y., Fujikawa, K., Wang, J., Li, X., Ju, Y., et al. . (2020), “The Potential and Trend of End-Of-Life Passenger Vehicles Recycling in China”, Sustainability, Vol. 12 No. 4, pp. 1455–1467. 10.3390/su12041455CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Li, Y., Miao, L., Chen, Y. and Hu, Y. J. S. (2019), “Exploration of sustainable urban transportation development in China through the forecast of private vehicle ownership”, Vol. 11 No. 16, pp. 4259–4276. 10.3390/su11164259CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lin, H.-T., Nakajima, K., Yamasue, E. and Ishihara, K. (2018), “Recycling of End-of-Life Vehicles in Small Islands: The Case of Kinmen, Taiwan”, Sustainability, Vol. 10 No. 12, pp. 4377–4390. 10.3390/su10124377CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ochotnicky, P., Kacer, M. and Alexy, M. (2017), “Sustainability of the ELV processing system in the Slovak Republic and forecasting of waste streams from the operation of passenger motor vehicles”, Waste Forum, Vol. 5, pp. 452–467.Google Scholar
Phornprapha, J., Fukuda, A. and Arimura, M. (2010), “Optimization of reverse logistics network for end-of-life/second hand motorcycle in Thailand”, Infrastructure Planning Review, Vol. 27, pp. 683–692. 10.2208/journalip.27.683Google Scholar
Roozbeh Nia, A., Awasthi, A. and Bhuiyan, N. (2021), “Industry 4.0 and demand forecasting of the energy supply chain: A literature review”, Computers and Industrial Engineering, Vol. 154, pp. 107128–107149. 10.1016/j.cie.2021.107128CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shankar, V. (2018), “How Artificial Intelligence (AI) is Reshaping Retailing”, Journal of Retailing, Vol. 94 No. 4, pp. vi–xi. 10.1016/s0022-4359(18)30076-9Google Scholar
Sokić, M., manojlović, V., Marković, B. and Štrbac, N. (2016), “Modeling and Prediction of the end of Life Vehicles Number Distribution in Serbia”, Acta Polytechnica Hungarica, Vol. 13 No. 4, pp. 159–172. 10.12700/aph.13.4.2016.4.10Google Scholar
Tian, G., Zhou, M., Chu, J. and Wang, B. (2013), “Prediction models of the number of end-of-life vehicles in China”, 2013 International Conference on Advanced Mechatronic Systems : September 25-27, 2013, Luoyang, China, IEEE, Luoyang, pp. 357–362. 10.1109/icamechs.2013.6681808Google Scholar
Tian, J. and Chen, M. (2014), “Sustainable design for automotive products: dismantling and recycling of end-of-life vehicles”, Waste Management, Vol. 34 No. 2, pp. 458–467. 10.1016/j.wasman.2013.11.005CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Toktay, L. B., Laan, v. d., A., E. and de Brito, M. P. (2004), “Managing product returns: the role of forecasting”, In: Dekker, R., Fleischmann, M., Inderfurth, K. and Wassenhove, L. V. (Eds.), Reverse Logistics: Quantitative Models for Closed-Loop Supply Chains, Springer, Berlin, pp. 45–64. 10.1007/978-3-540-24803-3_3Google Scholar
Wang, L., Feng, J., Sui, X., Chu, X. and Mu, W. (2020a), “Agricultural product price forecasting methods: research advances and trend”, British Food Journal, Vol. 122 No. 7, pp. 2121–2138. 10.1108/bfj-09-2019-0683CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wang, P., Zhang, H., Qin, Z. and Zhang, G. (2017), “A novel hybrid-Garch model based on ARIMA and SVM for PM 2.5 concentrations forecasting”, Atmospheric Pollution Research, Vol. 8 No. 5, pp. 850–860. 10.1016/j.apr.2017.01.003CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wang, S., Yu, J. and Okubo, K. (2019), “Scenario Analysis on the Generation of End-of-Life Hybrid Vehicle in Developing Countries—Focusing on the Exported Secondhand Hybrid Vehicle from Japan to Mongolia”, Recycling, Vol. 4 No. 4, pp. 41–52. 10.3390/recycling4040041CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wang, S., Yu, J. and Okubo, K. (2020b), “Estimation of End-of-Life Hybrid Vehicle number in Japan considering secondhand vehicle exportation”, Waste Manag, Vol. 104, pp. 198–206. 10.1016/j.wasman.2020.01.022Google Scholar
Wong, Y. C., Al-Obaidi, K. M. and Mahyuddin, N. (2018), “Recycling of end-of-life vehicles (ELVs) for building products: Concept of processing framework from automotive to construction industries in Malaysia”, Journal of Cleaner Production, Vol. 190, pp. 285–302. 10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.04.145CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Xin, F., Ni, S., Li, H. and Zhou, X. (2018), “General Regression Neural Network and Artificial-Bee-Colony Based General Regression Neural Network Approaches to the Number of End-of-Life Vehicles in China”, IEEE Access, Vol. 6, pp. 19278–19286. 10.1109/access.2018.2814054CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Xu, G., Yano, J. and Sakai, S. I. (2019), “Recycling Potentials of Precious Metals from End-of-Life Vehicle Parts by Selective Dismantling”, Environmental Science and Technology, Vol. 53 No. 2, pp. 733–742. 10.1021/acs.est.8b04273CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Yano, J., Hirai, Y., Okamoto, K. and Sakai, S.-i. (2013), “Dynamic flow analysis of current and future end-of-life vehicles generation and lead content in automobile shredder residue”, Journal of Material Cycles and Waste Management, Vol. 16 No. 1, pp. 52–61. 10.1007/s10163-013-0166-1CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Yano, J., Muroi, T. and Sakai, S.-i. (2015), “Rare earth element recovery potentials from end-of-life hybrid electric vehicle components in 2010–2030”, Journal of Material Cycles and Waste Management, Vol. 18 No. 4, pp. 655–664. 10.1007/s10163-015-0360-4CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Yu, L., Chen, M. and Yang, B. (2019), “Recycling policy and statistical model of end-of-life vehicles in China”, Waste Management and Research, Vol. 37 No. 4, pp. 347–356. 10.1177/0734242X19833150Google ScholarPubMed
Zhou, F., Lim, M. K., He, Y., Lin, Y. and Chen, S. (2019), “End-of-life vehicle (ELV) recycling management: Improving performance using an ISM approach”, Journal of Cleaner Production, Vol. 228, pp. 231–243. 10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.04.182CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zhou, F. and Ma, P. (2020), “End-of-life Vehicle Amount Forecasting based on an Improved GM (1, 1) Model”, Engineering Letters, Vol. 28 No. 3, pp. 777–782.Google Scholar