The Most Vulnerable Populations: Exploring the FEMA National Risk Index by Racial/Ethnic Group

Abstract

Introduction:

The US Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has created a publicly available National Risk Index (NRI) using natural disaster and community risk factor data to provide numeric and visual representations of communities’ disaster risk. Of particular interest is the index’s use of the social vulnerability and community resilience variables. This study’s purpose was to identify and explore differences in vulnerability and resilience based on racial demographic data at the census tract level. By identifying communities at the highest risk, we can address modifiable risk factors to improve natural disaster outcomes for vulnerable populations.

Method:

This project used merged data from the US Census Bureau’s 2019 American Community Survey and source data for the FEMA NRI. Using Microsoft Excel, we created scatter plots of the social vulnerability and community resilience variables by census tract and predominant racial group, and calculated the mean, standard deviation, and statistical difference between those variables by race.

Results:

In census tracts where Native Americans made up ≥50% of the population:

1) There was a positive linear association between percent of Native Americans and increased social vulnerability.

2) The average social vulnerability score (ASV) was significantly higher (ASV = 55.74) than for predominantly White tracts (ASV = 31.43) (p < 0.001).

3) The average risk score (ARS) was significantly higher (ARS = 30.18) compared to predominantly White tracts (ARS = 16.98) (p < 0.001).

4) The average resilience index score (ARIS) was significantly lower (ARIS = 51.83) than predominantly White tracts (ARIS = 55.08) (p < 0.001).

Conclusion:

Results show that census tracts with predominantly Native American populations face significantly higher natural disaster risk and social vulnerability, and have significantly lower resilience scores compared to predominantly White tracts. Using modifiable factors to improve community resilience and decrease social vulnerability, the US can better protect communities at high natural disaster risk.