(A30) Risking It All on Risk Assessment – Why Risk Assessment is broken in Disaster Medicine and How We Can Fix it

Abstract

Why did we predict Y2K, but not 911? Why did we predict dirty bombs for much of the past decade, but failed to predict the Asian Tsunami, Hurricane Katrina, and the Haiti Earthquake? Rational disaster preparedness depends on rational risk assessment – but does this really occur? This presentation will explore why risk assessment in disaster medicine is broken, including (1) type I and type II errors in risk assessment; (2) limitations of human neurophysiology; (3) cognitive biases in risk assessment; (4) impact of the media; (5) lack of harmonization of the language of risk; (6) deference to so-called risk experts; (7) risk innumeracy; (8) flaws in risk assessment matrices; (9) black swan events; and (10) managing risk based on extreme events. Concomitantly, this presentation will explore how we can fix risk assessment in disaster medicine, proffering practical solutions to each of these common yet surmountable barriers.