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Religion, Rational Political Theory, and the 2008 Presidential Election

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 March 2013

Jungyun Gill  and
James DeFronzo
Jungyun Gill*
Affiliation:
Stonehill College
James DeFronzo*
Affiliation:
University of Connecticut
*
Address correspondence and reprint requests to: Jungyun Gill, Sociology and Criminology Department, Stonehill College, 320 Washington Street, Easton, MA 02357. E-mail: [email protected]
James DeFronzo, University of Connecticut. E-mail: [email protected]
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Abstract

States of the United States differ significantly in terms of politically salient religious culture. But prior to the 2008 presidential election several studies inspired by rational political theory that found that during war time voting districts with high rates of military fatalities were more likely to vote against incumbent candidates and for anti-war candidates failed to control for variation in religious culture. In the present study, multivariate analyses that controlled for local differences in religious culture found that Iraq War military fatalities had an overall positive effect on the difference in the percent of the vote received in the 50 states and the District of Columbia by the anti-war Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama in the 2008 election and the pre-war Democratic presidential candidate Al Gore in the 2000 election. Tests for interaction, however, also found that the magnitude and ultimately the direction of this effect were conditioned by religious culture. In states with very high percentages of evangelical Protestants, the military fatality rate actually appeared to have a negative effect.

Type
Articles
Information
Politics and Religion , Volume 6 , Issue 2 , June 2013 , pp. 303 - 316
Copyright
Copyright © Religion and Politics Section of the American Political Science Association 2013 

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