No CrossRef data available.
Article contents
A duration estimator for a continuous time war of attrition game
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 06 July 2020
Abstract
We developed a maximum likelihood estimator corresponding to the predicted hazard rate that emerges from a continuous time game of incomplete information with a fixed time horizon (i.e., Kreps and Wilson, 1982, Journal of Economic Theory27, 253–279). Such games have been widely applied in economics and political science and involve two players engaged in a war of attrition contest over some prize that they both value. Each player can be either a strong or weak competitor. In the equilibrium of interest, strong players do not quit whereas weak players play a mixed strategy characterized by a hazard rate that increases up to an endogenous point in time, after which only strong players remain. The observed length of the contest can therefore be modeled as a mixture between two unobserved underlying durations: one that increases until it abruptly ends at an endogenous point in time and a second involving two strong players that continues indefinitely. We illustrate this estimator by studying the durations of Senate filibusters and international crises.
- Type
- Original Article
- Information
- Copyright
- Copyright © The European Political Science Association 2020
References
Banks, JS (1990) Equilibrium behavior in crisis bargaining games. American Journal of Political Science 34, 599–614.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bawn, K and Koger, G (2008) Effort, intensity and position taking: reconsidering obstruction in the pre-cloture Senate. Journal of Theoretical Politics 20, 67–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beth, RS (1994) Filibusters in the Senate, 1789–1993. Memorandum, Government Division, Congressional Research Service.Google Scholar
Binder, SA (1997) Minority Rights, Majority Rule. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Binder, SA and Smith, SS (1997) Politics or Principle? Filibustering in the United States Senate. Washington, DC: Brookings.Google Scholar
Binder, SA, Lawrence, ED and Smith, SS (2002) Tracking the filibuster, 1917 to 1996. American Politics Research 30, 406–422.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brecher, M and Wilkenfeld, J (2000) A Study of Crisis. Ann Arbor: The University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Carmignani, F (2001) Cabinet formation in coalition systems. Scottish Journal of Political Economy 48, 313–329.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
DeRouen, KR Jr and Goldfinch, S (2005) Putting the numbers to work: implications for violence prevention. Journal of Peace Research 42, 27–45.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dion, D, Boehmke, FJ, MacMillan, W and Shipan, CR (2016) The filibuster as a war of attrition. Journal of Law and Economics 59, 569–595.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, JD (1994) Domestic political audiences and the escalation of international disputes. American Political Science Review 88, 577–592.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, J (1995) Rationalist explanations for war. International Organization 49, 379–414.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Granato, J, Lo, M and Wong, MCS (2010) A framework for unifying formal and empirical analysis. American Journal of Political Science 54, 783–797.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
King, G (1998) Unifying Political Methodology: The Likelihood Method of Statistical Influence. Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Klarner, CE, Phillips, JH and Muckler, M (2012) Overcoming fiscal gridlock: institutions and budget bargaining. The Journal of Politics 74, 992–1009.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Koger, G (2010) Filibustering: A Political History of Obstruction in the House and Senate. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kreps, DM and Wilson, R (1982) Reputation and imperfect information. Journal of Economic Theory 27, 253–279.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Krugman, P (1991) Increasing returns and economic geography. Journal of Political Economy 99, 483–499.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maller, RA and Zhou, S (1995) Testing for the presence of immune or cured individuals in censored survival data. Biometrics 51, 1197–1205.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Maynard Smith, J (1974) The theory of games and the evolution of animal conflicts. Journal of Theoretical Biology 47, 209–221.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morrow, JD (1989) Capabilities, uncertainty, and resolve: a limited information model of crisis bargaining. American Journal of Political Science 33, 941–972.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morrow, JD (2014) Order within Anarchy: The Laws of War as an International Institution. NY: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morton, RB (1999) Methods and Models: A Guide to the Empirical Analysis of Formal Models in Political Science. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Obstfeld, M (1996) Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features. European Economic Review 40, 1037–1047.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Powell, R (2017) Taking sides in wars of attrition. American Political Science Review 111, 219–236.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Riley, JG (1980) Strong evolutionary equilibrium and the war of attrition. Journal of Theoretical Biology 82, 383–400.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Schmidt, P and Witte, AD (1989) Predicting criminal recidivism using ‘split population’ survival time models. Journal of Econometrics 40, 141–159.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shapiro, A (1988) Towards a unified theory of inequality constrained testing in multivariate analysis. International Statistical Review/Revue Internationale de Statistique 56, 49–62.Google Scholar
Signorino, CS (1999) Strategic interaction and the statistical analysis of international conflict. American Political Science Review 93, 279–297.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tyson, SA and Smith, A (2018) Dual-layered coordination and political instability: repression, co-optation, and the role of information. Journal of Politics 80, 44–58.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wawro, GJ and Schickler, E (2006) Filibuster: Obstruction and Lawmaking in the U.S. Senate. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Will, GF (1982) Our government reflects our confusion. The Washington Post December 23, p. A17.Google Scholar
Boehmke et al. Supplementary Materials
Boehmke et al. Supplementary Materials
PDF
119.7 KB