Hostname: page-component-6dbcb7884d-g628x Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-02-14T08:28:12.298Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

In defense of a divided opposition: programmatic distribution and ethnic minor party support

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 October 2020

Elizabeth Carlson Open the ORCID record for Elizabeth Carlson [Opens in a new window]
Elizabeth Carlson*
Affiliation:
Political Science, North Dakota State University, North Dakota, USA
*
Corresponding author. Email: [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Why do so many voters in African countries vote for minor ethnic parties instead of unifying into a powerful multi-ethnic opposition coalition? I present a model that demonstrates that as the incumbent devotes more resources to programmatic goods, which voters can access regardless of how they voted, the opportunity cost of voting for a sincerely preferred, but losing, candidate decreases. I provide experimental and cross-national observational evidence that voters are more likely to support a minor party as they perceive more or more valuable goods being distributed programmatically. Those who perceive poor distribution, or only clientelist distribution, instead vote strategically for a major opposition party. In general, support for minor parties increases along with positive outcomes and approval of the incumbent.

Keywords

African politicscomparative political economycomparative politics: political behaviorempirical implcations of theoretical modelsexperimental research
Type
Original Article
Information
Political Science Research and Methods , Volume 9 , Issue 4 , October 2021 , pp. 745 - 759
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2020. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the European Political Science Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Arriola, LR (2013) Capital and opposition in Africa: coalition building in multiethnic societies. World Politics 65, 233–272.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Birnir, JK and Van Cott, DL (2007) Disunity in diversity: party system fragmentation and the dynamic effect of ethnic heterogeneity on Latin American legislatures. Latin American Research Review 42, 99–125, 253–255, 258.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blais, A (2002) Why is there so little strategic voting in Canadian plurality rule elections?. Political Studies 50, 445–454.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bleck, J and van de Walle, N (2013) Valence issues in African elections: navigating uncertainty and the weight of the past. Comparative Political Studies 46, 1394–1421.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bratton, M, Dulani, B and Masunungure, E (2016) Detecting manipulation in authoritarian elections: survey-based methods in Zimbabwe. Electoral Studies 42, 10–21.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Burgess, R, Jedwab, R, Miguel, E, Morjaria, A, Padró i Miquel, G (2015) The value of democracy: evidence from road building in Kenya. American Economic Review 105, 1817–1851.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carlson, E (2016a) Finding partisanship where we least expect it: evidence of partisan bias in a new african democracy. Political Behavior 38, 129–154.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carlson, E (2016b) Identifying and interpreting the sensitivity of ethnic voting in africa. Public Opinion Quarterly 80, 837–857.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Conroy-Krutz, J and Lewis, D (2011). Mapping Ideologies in African Landscapes. Afrobarometer Working Paper No. 129. Available at: http://afrobarometer.org/publications/wp129-mapping-ideologies-african-landscapes.Google Scholar
Ejdemyr, S, Kramon, E and Robinson, AL (2017) Segregation, ethnic favoritism, and the strategic targeting of local public goods. Comparative Political Studies 51, 1111–1143.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Franck, R and Rainer, I (2012) Does the leader's ethnicity matter? Ethnic favoritism, education, and health in Sub-Saharan Africa. American Political Science Review 106, 294–325.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Harding, R and Stasavage, D (2014) What democracy does (and doesn't do) for basic services: school fees, school inputs, and African elections. The Journal of Politics 76, 229–245.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hillygus, DS (2007) The dynamics of voter decision making among minor-party supporters: the 2000 Presidential Election in the United States. British Journal of Political Science 37, 225–244.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Horowitz, J and Long, J (2016) Strategic voting, information, and ethnicity in emerging democracies: evidence from Kenya. Electoral Studies 44, 351–361.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ichino, N and Nathan, N (2013) Crossing the line: local ethnic geography and voting in Ghana. American Political Science Review 107, 344–361.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Madrid, R (2005) Indigenous voters and party system fragmentation in Latin America. Electoral Studies 24, 689–707.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Moser, RG and Scheiner, E (2009) Strategic voting in established and new democracies: Ticket splitting in mixed-member electoral systems. Electoral Studies 28, 51–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mozaffar, S, Scarritt, J and Galaich, G (2003) Electoral institutions, ethnopolitical cleavages, and party systems in Africa's emerging democracies. American Political Science Review 97, 379–390.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Myatt, DP (2017) A theory of protest voting. The Economic Journal 127, 1527–1567.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ordeshook, PC and Shvetsova, OV (1994) Ethnic heterogeneity, district magnitude, and the number of parties. American Journal of Political Science 38, 100–123.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Peli, G. (2011). Ethnic party fragmentation versus unity: a niche-based explanation research note. ACED Working Papers. Available at: https://econpapers.repec.org/paper/antacedwp/2011012.htm.Google Scholar
Peterka, T (2016) Traditional Chiefs and Opposition Party Fragmentation in Africa. Presented to the 2016 Southern California Political Institutions Conference. Available at: http://www.scpi.politicaldata.org/SCPIXI/Peterka.pdf.Google Scholar
Piombo, J (2005) Political parties, social demographics and the decline of ethnic mobilization in South Africa, 1994–99. Party Politics 11, 447–470.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Posner, D (2004) The political salience of cultural difference: why Chewas and Tumbukas are allies in Zambia and Adversaries in Malawi. American Political Science Review 98.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Riedl, R (2014) Authoritarian Origins of Democratic Party Systems in Africa. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Southall, R (1998) The centralization and fragmentation of South Africa's dominant party system. African Affairs 97, 443–469.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stroschein, S (2011) Demography in ethnic party fragmentation: Hungarian local voting in romania. Party Politics 17, 189–204.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
van de Walle, N (2003) Presidentialism and clientelism in Africa's emerging party systems. The Journal of Modern African Studies 41, 297–321.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weghorst, K (2011). Political Attitudes and Response Bias in Semi-Democratic Regimes: A Survey Experiment Comparing the List Experiment and Randomized Response in Tanzania. Available at https://www.keithweghorst.com/uploads/9/0/4/7/9047071/weghorst_lerrt_2015.pdf.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Carlson supplementary material

Appendix

Download Carlson supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 196.1 KB
Supplementary material: Link

Carlson Dataset

Dataset

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/VGZHYO
Link