Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-dlnhk Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-27T19:08:57.717Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Subjective and Objective Confirmation

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 April 2022

Patrick Maher
Patrick Maher*
Affiliation:
Department of Philosophy University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
*
†Send reprint requests to the author, 105 Gregory Hall, 810 S. Wright Street, Urbana, IL 61801.
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Confirmation is commonly identified with positive relevance, E being said to confirm H if and only if E increases the probability of H. Today, analyses of this general kind are usually Bayesian ones that take the relevant probabilities to be subjective. I argue that these subjective Bayesian analyses are irremediably flawed. In their place I propose a relevance analysis that makes confirmation objective and which, I show, avoids the flaws of the subjective analyses. What I am proposing is in some ways a return to Carnap's conception of confirmation, though there are also important differences between my analysis and his. My analysis includes new accounts of what evidence is and of the indexicality of confirmation claims. Finally, I defend my analysis against Achinstein's criticisms of the relevance concept of confirmation.

Type
Research Article
Information
Philosophy of Science , Volume 63 , Issue 2 , June 1996 , pp. 149 - 174
Copyright
Copyright © 1996 by the Philosophy of Science Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Achinstein, Peter (1978), “Concepts of Evidence”, Mind 87: 22–45.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Achinstein, Peter (1981), “On Evidence: A Reply to Bar-Hillel and Margalit”, Mind 40: 108–112.10.1093/mind/XC.357.108CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Achinstein, Peter (1983), “Concepts of Evidence”, in Achinstein, Peter (ed.), The Concept of Evidence. Oxford: Oxford University Press, pp. 145–174. A modified version of Achinstein 1978.Google Scholar
Achinstein, Peter (1992), “The Evidence Against Kronz”, Philosophical Studies 67: 169–175.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bar-Hillel, Maya and Margalit, Avishai (1979), “In Defense of the Classical Notion of Evidence”, Mind 88: 576–583.10.1093/mind/LXXXVIII.1.576CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carnap, Rudolf (1950), Logical Foundations of Probability. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Second edition 1962.Google Scholar
Carnap, Rudolf (1952), The Continuum of Inductive Methods. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Carnap, Rudolf (1971a), “Inductive Logic and Rational Decisions”, in Carnap, Rudolf and Jeffrey, Richard C. (eds.), Studies in Inductive Logic and Probability, volume 1. Berkeley: University of California Press, pp. 5–31.10.1525/9780520334250-002CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carnap, Rudolf (1971b), “A Basic System of Inductive Logic, Part I”, in Carnap, Rudolf and Jeffrey, Richard C. (eds.), Studies in Inductive Logic and Probability, volume 1. Berkeley: University of California Press, pp. xx–xx.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chihara, Charles S. (1987). “Some Problems for Bayesian Confirmation Theory”, British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 38: 551–560.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Earman, John (1992), Bayes or Bust? Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Eells, Ellery (1985), “Problems of Old Evidence”, Pacific Philosophical Quarterly Pacific Philosophical Quarterly: 66–283. Reprinted as “Bayesian Problems of Old Evidence” in Savage 1990.Google Scholar
Garber, Daniel (1983), “Old Evidence and Logical Omniscience in Bayesian Confirmation Theory”, in Earman, John (ed.), Testing Scientific Theories. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.Google Scholar
Gärdenfors, Peter (1988), Knowledge in Flux. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Gibbard, Allan (1990), Wise Choices, Apt Feelings. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Glymour, Clark (1980), Theory and Evidence. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Grice, Paul (1989), Studies in the Way of Words. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Hempel, Carl G. (1945), “Studies in the Logic of Confirmation”, Mind 54. Page references are to the reprint in Hempel (1965).10.1093/mind/LIV.214.97CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hempel, Carl G. (1965), Aspects of Scientific Explanation. New York: The Free Press.Google Scholar
Horwich, Paul (1982), Probability and Evidence. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Howson, Colin (1984), “Bayesianism and Support by Novel Facts”, British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 35: 245–251.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Howson, Colin (1985), “Some Recent Objections to the Bayesian Theory of Support”, British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, xxxx.10.1093/bjps/36.3.305CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Howson, Colin (1991), “The ‘Old Evidence’ Problem”, British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 42: 547–555.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jeffrey, Richard C. (1965), The Logic of Decision. New York: McGraw-Hill. Second edition, University of Chicago Press 1983.Google Scholar
Kronz, Frederick M. (1992), “Carnap and Achinstein on Evidence”, Philosophical Studies 67: 151–167.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis, David (1979), “Scorekeeping in a Language Game”, Journal of Philosophical Logic 8: 339–359.10.1007/BF00258436CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maher, Patrick (1993), Betting on Theories. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pearl, Judea (1990), “Jeffrey's Rule, Passage of Experience, and Neo-Bayesianism”, in Henry, E. Jr. Kyburg, Ronald P. Loui and Carlson, Greg N. (eds.), Knowledge Representation and Defeasible Reasoning. Dordrecht: Kluwer, pp. 245–265.10.1007/978-94-009-0553-5_10CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rosenkrantz, Roger D. (1977), Inference, Method and Decision. Dordrecht: D. Reidel.10.1007/978-94-010-1237-9CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Salmon, Wesley C. (1988), “Dynamic Rationality: Propensity, Probability, and Credence”, in Fetzer, James H. (ed.), Probability and Causality. Dordrecht: Reidel, pp. 3–40.10.1007/978-94-009-3997-4_1CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Savage, C. Wade (ed.) (1990), Scientific Theories. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.Google Scholar
Van Fraassen, Bas C. (1988), “The Problem of Old Evidence”, in Austin, David F. (ed.), Philosophical Analysis. Dordrecht: D. Reidel, pp. 153–165.10.1007/978-94-009-2909-8_10CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Will, C. M. (1986), Was Einstein Right? New York: Basic Books.Google Scholar