Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-ndw9j Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-02T22:07:10.281Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Probabilistic Causal Interaction

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 April 2022

Ellery Eells*
Affiliation:
Department of Philosophy, University of Wisconsin-Madison

Abstract

It is possible for a causal factor to raise the probability of a second factor in some situations while lowering the probability of the second factor in other situations. Must a genuine cause always raise the probability of a genuine effect of it? When it does not always do so, an “interaction“ with some third factor may be the reason. I discuss causal interaction from the perspectives of Giere's counterfactual characterization of probabilistic causal connection (1979, 1980) and the “contextual unanimity” model developed by, among others, Cartwright (1979) and Skyrms (1980). I argue that the contextual unanimity theory must exercise care, in a new way that seems to have gone unnoticed, in order to adequately accommodate the phenomenon, and that the counterfactual theory must be substantially revised; although it will still, pending clarification of a second kind of revision, be unable to accommodate a kind of interaction exemplified in cases like those described by Sober (1982).

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © The Philosophy of Science Association 1986

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

I thank Elliott Sober and an anonymous referee of this journal for useful comments on earlier drafts of this paper, and the University of Wisconsin-Madison Graduate School for financial support.

References

Cartwright, N. (1979), “Causal Laws and Effective Strategies”, Noûs 13: 419–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Collier, J. (1983), “Frequency-Dependent Causation: A Defense of Giere”, Philosophy of Science 50: 618–25.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eells, E., and Sober, E. (1983), “Probabilistic Causality and the Question of Transivity”, Philosophy of Science 50: 3557.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Giere, R. (1979), Understanding Scientific Reasoning. New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston.Google Scholar
Giere, R. (1980), “Causal Systems and Statistical Hypotheses”, in Applications of Inductive Logic, Cohen, L. Jonathan (ed.). New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Giere, R. (1984), “Causal Models with Frequency Dependence”, Journal of Philosophy 81: 384–91.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Skyrms, B. (1980), Causal Necessity. New Haven and London: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Sober, E. (1982), “Frequency-Dependent Causation”, Journal of Philosophy 79: 247–53.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sober, E. (1984a), The Nature of Selection. Cambridge: The MIT Press/A Bradford Book.Google Scholar
Sober, E. (1984b), “Discussion: What Would Happen If Everyone Did It?”, Philosophy of Science 52: 141–50.Google Scholar
Suppes, P. (1970), A Probabilistic Theory of Causality. Amsterdam: North-Holland.Google Scholar