Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-t8hqh Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-02T23:42:32.307Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

A Novel Solution to the Problem of Old Evidence

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 January 2022

Jan Sprenger
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

One of the most troubling and persistent challenges for Bayesian Confirmation Theory is the Problem of Old Evidence (POE). The problem arises for anyone who models scientific reasoning by means of Bayesian Conditionalization. This article addresses the problem as follows: First, I clarify the nature and varieties of the POE and analyze various solution proposals in the literature. Second, I present a novel solution that combines previous attempts while making weaker and more plausible assumptions. Third and last, I summarize my findings and put them into the context of the general debate about POE and Bayesian reasoning.

Type
Research Article
Information
Philosophy of Science , Volume 82 , Issue 3 , July 2015 , pp. 383 - 401
Copyright
Copyright © The Philosophy of Science Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

†

The author wishes to thank the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) for support of his research through Vidi grant 276-20-023. Peter Brössel, Clark Glymour, Branden Fitelson, Stephan Hartmann, Jonah Schupbach, participants of the Tilburg Center for Logic, Ethics and Philosophy of Science research seminars, and audiences in Dubrovnik and London improved the article with their helpful feedback.

References

Berger, J. O., and Wolpert, R. L.. 1984. The Likelihood Principle. Hayward, CA: Institute of Mathematical Statistics.Google Scholar
Bovens, L., and Hartmann, S.. 2003. Bayesian Epistemology. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Brush, S. G. 1989. “Prediction and Theory Evaluation: The Case of Light Bending.” Science 246:1124–29.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Chihara, C. 1987. “Some Unresolved Problems in Bayesian Confirmation Theory.” British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 38:551–60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Christensen, D. 1999. “Measuring Confirmation.” Journal of Philosophy 96:437–61.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Crupi, V. 2013. “Confirmation.” In Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy, ed. Zalta, E.. Stanford, CA: Stanford University. http://plato.stanford.edu/entries/confirmation/#BayConThe.Google Scholar
Dawid, R., Hartmann, S., and Sprenger, J.. 2015. “The No Alternative Argument.” British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 66 (1): 213–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Earman, J. 1992. Bayes or Bust? Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Eells, E. 1985. “Problems of Old Evidence.” Pacific Philosophical Quarterly 66:283–302.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eells, E. 1990. “Bayesian Problems of Old Evidence.” In Scientific Theories, ed. Savage, C. W., 205–23. Minnesota Studies in the Philosophy of Science 14. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.Google Scholar
Eells, E., and Fitelson, B.. 2000. “Measuring Confirmation and Evidence.” Journal of Philosophy 97:663–72.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fitelson, B. 1999. “The Plurality of Bayesian Measures of Confirmation and the Problem of Measure Sensitivity.” Philosophy of Science 66:S362–S378.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fitelson, B. 2008. “A Decision Procedure for Probability Calculus with Applications.” Review of Symbolic Logic 1:111–25.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fitelson, B. 2014. “Earman on Old Evidence and Measures of Confirmation.” Unpublished manuscript, University of California, Berkeley. http://fitelson.org/research.htm.Google Scholar
Garber, D. 1983. “Old Evidence and Logical Omniscience in Bayesian Confirmation Theory.” In Testing Scientific Theories, ed. Earman, J., 99–132. Minnesota Studies in the Philosophy of Science 10. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.Google Scholar
Glymour, C. 1980. Theory and Evidence. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Hájek, A., and Hartmann, S.. 2010. “Bayesian Epistemology.” In A Companion to Epistemology, ed. Dancy, J. et al., 93–106. Oxford: Blackwell.Google Scholar
Hartmann, S., and Sprenger, J.. 2010. “Bayesian Epistemology.” In Routledge Companion to Epistemology, ed. Bernecker, S. and Pritchard, D., 609–20. London: Routledge.Google Scholar
Howson, C. 1984. “Bayesianism and Support by Novel Facts.” British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 35:245–51.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Howson, C. 1985. “Some Recent Objections to the Bayesian Theory of Support.” British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 36:305–9.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Howson, C. 1991. “The ‘Old Evidence’ Problem.” British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 42:547–55.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Howson, C., and Urbach, P.. 2006. Scientific Reasoning: The Bayesian Approach. 3rd ed. La Salle, IL: Open Court.Google Scholar
Jeffrey, R. 1983. “Bayesianism with a Human Face.” In Testing Scientific Theories, ed. Earman, J., 133–56. Minnesota Studies in the Philosophy of Science 10. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.Google Scholar
Lele, S. 2004. “Evidence Functions and the Optimality of the Law of Likelihood.” In The Nature of Scientific Evidence, ed. Taper, M. and Lele, S., 191–216. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Niiniluoto, I. 1983. “Novel Facts and Bayesianism.” British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 34:375–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Popper, K. R. 1959/1959. Logic of Scientific Discovery. London: Routledge.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ramsey, F. P. 1926. “Truth and Probability.” In Philosophical Papers, ed. Mellor, D. H., 52–94. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Royall, R. 1997. Scientific Evidence: A Likelihood Paradigm. London: Chapman & Hall.Google Scholar
Sprenger, J. 2010. “Statistical Inference without Frequentist Justifications.” In EPSA Epistemology and Methodology of Science: Launch of the European Philosophy of Science Association, Vol. 1, ed. Suárez, M. et al., 289–97. Berlin: Springer.Google Scholar
Suárez, M. 2015. “Confirmation and Induction.” In Oxford Handbook of the Philosophy of Science, ed. Humphreys, P.. Oxford: Oxford University Press, forthcoming.Google Scholar
Wiles, A. 1995. “Modular Elliptic Curves and Fermat’s Last Theorem.” Annals of Mathematics 142:443–551.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: File

Sprenger supplementary material

Sprenger supplementary material

Download Sprenger supplementary material(File)
File 9.2 KB