Hostname: page-component-745bb68f8f-lrblm Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-01-27T16:34:30.267Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Leitgeb and Pettigrew on Accuracy and Updating

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 January 2022

Benjamin Anders Levinstein
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Leitgeb and Pettigrew argue that (1) agents should minimize the expected inaccuracy of their beliefs and (2) inaccuracy should be measured via the Brier score. They show that in certain diachronic cases, these claims require an alternative to Jeffrey Conditionalization. I claim that this alternative is an irrational updating procedure and that the Brier score, and quadratic scoring rules generally, should be rejected as legitimate measures of inaccuracy.

Type
Research Article
Information
Philosophy of Science , Volume 79 , Issue 3 , July 2012 , pp. 413 - 424
Copyright
Copyright © The Philosophy of Science Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

†

I wish to thank Alex Anthony, Nick Beckstead, Branden Fitelson, Irwin Levinstein, Richard Pettigrew, Brian Weatherson, and two anonymous referees for their helpful comments and discussion.

References

Brier, Glenn W. 1950. ‘‘Verification of Forecasts Expressed in Terms of Probability.’’ Monthly Weather Review 78:1–3.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
de Finetti, Bruno. 1974. Theory of Probability. vol. 1. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Greaves, Hillary, and Wallace, David. 2006. ‘‘Justifying Conditionalization: Conditionalization Maximizes Expected Epistemic Utility.’’ Mind 115 (632): 607–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jeffrey, Richard C. 1983. The Logic of Decision. 2nd ed. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Joyce, James M. 1998. ‘‘A Nonpragmatic Vindication of Probabilism.’’ Philosophy of Science 65:575–603.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Joyce, James M.. 2009. ‘‘Accuracy and Coherence: Prospects for an Alethic Epistemology of Partial Belief.’’ In Degrees of Belief, ed. Huber, F. and Schmidt-Petri, C., 263–97. Synthese Library 342. Dordrecht: Springer.Google Scholar
Kierland, Brian, and Monton, Bradley. 2005. ‘‘Minimizing Inaccuracy for Self-Locating Beliefs.’’ Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 70 (2): 384–95.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leitgeb, Hannes, and Pettigrew, Richard. 2010a. ‘‘An Objective Justification of Bayesianism I: Measuring Inaccuracy.’’ Philosophy of Science 77:201–35.Google Scholar
Leitgeb, Hannes, and Pettigrew, Richard. 2010b. ‘‘An Objective Justification of Bayesianism II: The Consequences of Minimizing Inaccuracy.’’ Philosophy of Science 77:236–72.Google Scholar
Oddie, Graham. 1997. ‘‘Conditionalization, Cogency, and Cognitive Value.’’ British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 48 (4): 533–41.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Savage, Leonard J. 1971. ‘‘Elicitation of Personal Probabilities.’’ Journal of the American Statistical Association 66:783–801.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Selten, Reinhard. 1998. ‘‘Axiomatic Characterization of the Quadratic Scoring Rule.’’ Experimental Economics 1 (1): 43–62.CrossRefGoogle Scholar