Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-l7hp2 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-29T18:58:13.691Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Big Numbers and Induction in the Case for Extraterrestrial Intelligence

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 April 2022

Roy Mash
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Arguments favoring the existence of extraterrestrial intelligence nearly always contain an overt appeal to big numbers, often combined with a covert reliance on generalization from a single instance. In this paper I examine both motifs, and consider whether big numbers might actually make palatable otherwise implausible single-case inductions. In the end, the dispute between believers and skeptics is seen to boil down to a conflict of intuitions which can barely be engaged, let alone resolved, given our present state of knowledge.

Type
Research Article
Information
Philosophy of Science , Volume 60 , Issue 2 , June 1993 , pp. 204 - 222
Copyright
Copyright © Philosophy of Science Association 1993

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

†

For conversation and comment I thank Kent Bach, Bob Bardell, Kevin Brooks, John Burke, Hal Forsey, Don Provence, Peter Radcliff, and two anonymous referees from this journal.

‡

Send reprint requests to the author, 2100 Danberry Lane, San Rafael, CA 94903, USA.

References

Baird, J. C. (1987), The Inner Limits of Outer Space. Hanover: University Press.Google Scholar
Barrow, J. D. and Tipler, F. J. (1988), The Anthropic Cosmological Principal. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Bracewell, R. N. (1974), The Galactic Club: Intelligent Life in Outer Space. San Francisco: San Francisco Book Company.Google Scholar
Chow, Y. S. and Teicher, H. (1978), Probability Theory: Interdependence Interchange-ability Martingales. New York: Springer-Verlag.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clarke, A. C. (1973), Report on Planet Three. New York: Signet.Google Scholar
Crick, F. (1981), Life Itself. New York: Simon & Schuster.Google Scholar
Dyson, F. (1979a), “Extraterrestrials”, in Disturbing the Universe. New York: Harper & Row, pp. 205–217.Google Scholar
Dyson, F. (1979b), “Time Without End: Physics and Biology in an Open Universe”, Reviews of Modern Physics 51: 447–460.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Edelson, E. (1979), Who Goes There?: The Search for Intelligent Life in the Universe. Garden City: Doubleday.Google Scholar
Feinberg, G. and Shapiro, R. (1982), “Possible Forms of Life in Environments Very Different From the Earth”, in M. H. Hart and B. Zuckerman (eds.), Extraterrestrials, Where are They? New York: Pergammon Press, pp. 113–120.Google Scholar
Goldsmith, D. (1987), “Who Will Speak for Earth: An Essay on Extraterrestrial Intelligence and Contact”, in Preiss, B. (ed.), The Universe. New York: Bantam, pp. 302–314.Google Scholar
Hart, M. H. (1982), “Atmospheric Evolution, The Drake Equation, and DNA: Sparse Life in an Infinite Universe”, in Hart, M. H. and Zuckerman, B. (eds.), Extraterrestrials, Where are They? New York: Pergammon Press, pp. 152–164.Google Scholar
Islam, J. N. (1983), The Ultimate Fate of the Universe. Cambridge, England: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jones, H. S. (1940), Life on Other Worlds. New York: Mentor.Google Scholar
Lucretius (1951), On the Nature of the Universe. Translated by R. E. Latham. London: Penguin Books.Google Scholar
McDonough, T. R. (1987), The Search For Extraterrestrial Intelligence: Listening for Life in the Cosmos. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
McMullin, E. (1980), “Persons in the Universe”, Zygon 15: 69–89.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Miller, S. L. and Urey, H. C. (1959), “Organic Compound Synthesis on the Primitive Earth”, Science 130: 83–116.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Puccetti, R. (1968), Persons. London: Macmillan.Google Scholar
Rescher, N. (1985), “Extraterrestrial Science”, in Regis, E., Jr, . (ed.), E. Regis, Jr. London: Cambridge University Press, pp. 83–116.Google Scholar
Rood, R. T. and Trefil, J. S. (1981), Are We Alone?: The Possibility of Extraterrestrial Civilizations. New York: Scribners.Google Scholar
Shklovskii, I. S. and Sagan, C. (1966), Intelligent Life in the Universe. San Francisco: Holden Day.Google Scholar
Tartar, J. (1985), “Searching For Extraterrestrials”, in Regis, E., Jr, . (ed.), E. Regis, Jr. London: Cambridge University Press, pp. 167–190.Google Scholar
Tipler, F. J. (1985), “Extraterrestrial Intelligent Beings Do Not Exist”, in Regis, E., Jr, . (ed.), E. Regis, Jr. London: Cambridge University Press, pp. 133–150.Google Scholar