Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-4rdpn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-02T20:15:26.352Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Retreating from the Brink: Theorizing Mass Violence and the Dynamics of Restraint

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  25 May 2012

Scott Straus
Scott Straus
Affiliation:
University of Wisconsin, Madison. E-mail: [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

The research problem driving this paper is the absence of a strong theory that accounts for variation among cases that have similar probabilities of escalating to genocide and similar forms of organized (usually state-led) mass violence against civilians. Much of the existing theory on genocide focuses on explaining under what conditions and by what processes regimes commit large-scale violence against civilians. I argue that a critical missing dimension to studies of genocide, but also more generally to the study of political violence, is a methodological recognition of negative cases and a theoretical recognition of the dynamics of restraint that helps to explain such negative cases. That is, in addition to asking what causes leaders to choose to escalate violence, I argue that scholars should emphasize conditions that prompt moderation, de-escalation, or non-escalation. I propose an alternative framework for how to conceptualize the process of political violence and review the literature to identify key restraint mechanisms at micro, meso, and macro levels of analysis. I further articulate a provisional theory of genocide using this new analytical framework. I illustrate my argument with an empirical analysis of mass violence cases in Sub-Saharan Africa since independence, and with a more in-depth analysis of comparable crises in Rwanda and Côte d'Ivoire, where the trajectories of violence differed significantly. While this paper draws on extensive empirical research, my primary purpose is not to advance a developed new theory or to test particular hypotheses, but rather to outline a research agenda that promises to draw from and contribute to recent work on the comparative politics of violence.

Type
Research Article
Information
Perspectives on Politics , Volume 10 , Issue 2 , June 2012 , pp. 343 - 362
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2012

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Acemoglu, Daron, and Robinson, James. 2006. Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
African Development Bank [AfDB]. 2011. “The Middle of the Pyramid: Dynamics of the Middle Class in Africa” (AfDB Market Brief, April 20).Google Scholar
Akindès, Francis. 2004 The Roots of the Military-Political Crises in Côte d'Ivoire. Uppsala: Nordiska Afrikainstitutet.Google Scholar
Amnesty International. 2004. “Mali: Ethnic Conflict and Killings of Civilians.” (http://www.amnesty.org/en/library/info/AFR37/008/1994/en), accessed February 17, 2012.Google Scholar
Autesserre, Séverine. 2010. The Trouble with Congo: Local Violence and the Failure of International Peacebuilding. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bellamy, Alex. 2011. “Mass Atrocities and Armed Conflict: Links, Distinctions, and Implications for the Responsibility to Protect” (Stanley Foundation Policy Analysis Brief, January).Google Scholar
Bloxham, Donald. 2005. The Great Game of Genocide: Imperialism, Nationalism, and the Destruction of the Ottoman Armenians. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bringa, Tone. 1995. Being Muslim The Bosnian Way: Identity and Community in a Central Bosnian Village. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Browning, Christopher. 1991. Ordinary Men: Reserve Police Battalion 101 and the Final Solution in Poland. New York: HarperPerennial.Google Scholar
Browning, Christopher. with Jurgen Matthaus. 2004. The Origins of the Final Solution: The Evolution of Nazi Jewish Policy, September 1939–1942. Lincoln/Jerusalem: University of Nebraska Press/Yad Vashem.Google Scholar
Chambers, Simone, and Kopstein, Jeffrey. 2001. “Bad Civil Society.” Political Theory 29(6): 837–865.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chirot, Daniel, and McCauley, Clark. 2006. Why Not Kill Them All? The Logic and Prevention of Mass Political Murder. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Claudot-Hawad, Hélene. 1995. “'Négrafricanisme' et racism.” Le Monde Diplomatique (April): 30.Google Scholar
Collier, Paul. 2007. The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries Are Failing and What Can Be Done about It. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Collins, Randall. 2008. Violence: A Micro-Sociological Theory. Princeton: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Coloroso, Barbara. 2007. Extraordinary Evil: A Short Walk to Genocide. New York: Nation Books.Google Scholar
Costa, Dora, and Kahn, Matthew. 2008. Heroes and Cowards: The Social Face of War. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Des Forges, Alison. 1999. Leave None to Tell the Story: Genocide in Rwanda. New York: Human Rights Watch.Google Scholar
Dozon, Jean-Pierre. 2000. “La Côte d'Ivoire au péru de l'ivoirité': Genèse d'un coup d'Etat.” Afrique Contemporaine 193: 13–23.Google Scholar
Economic Intelligence Unit [EIU]. 2008. Côte d'Ivoire: Country Profile. (country.ein.com/Côte%20d'Ivoire), accessed February 17, 2012.Google Scholar
Fearon, James, and Laitin, David. 1996. “Explaining Interethnic Cooperation.” American Political Science Review 90(4): 715–735.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, James D., Humphreys, Macartan, and Weinstein, Jeremy M.. 2009. “Can Development Aid Contribute to Social Cohesion after Civil War? Evidence from a Field Experiment in Post-Conflict Liberia.” American Economic Review 99(2): 287–292.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fein, Helen. 1979. Accounting for Genocide: National Responses and Jewish Victimization during the Holocaust. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Fortna, Virginia Page. 2008. Does Peacekeeping Work? Shaping Belligerents' Choices after Civil War. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Fujii, Lee Ann. 2009. Killing Neighbors: Webs of Violence in Rwanda. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Gagnon, V.P. 2006. The Myth of Ethnic War: Serbia and Croatia in the 1990s. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Genocide Prevention Project. 2008. Mass Atrocity Crimes Watch List. (http://www.preventorprotect.org/overview/watch-list.html), accessed April 23, 2012.Google Scholar
Genocide Watch. 2002. “Crisis in Côte d'Ivoire.” (www.genocidewatch.org/images/FC_te_d_Ivoire_02_12_11_Crisis_in_C_te_d_Ivoire.doc), accessed February 17, 2012.Google Scholar
Gerlach, Christian. 2000. “The Wannsee Conferences, the Fate of German Jews, and Hitler's Decision in Principle to Exterminate All European Jews.” In The Holocaust: Origins, Implementation, Aftermath, ed. Bartov, Omer. London: Routledge.Google Scholar
Gerlach, Christian. 2010. Extremely Violent Societies: Mass Violence in the Twentieth-Century World. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goldhagen, Daniel. 2009. Worse than War: Genocide, Eliminationism, and the Ongoing Assault on Humanity. New York: PublicAffairs.Google Scholar
Harff, Barbara. 1987. “The Etiology of Genocides.” In Genocide and the Modern Age: Etiology and Case Studies of Mass Death, eds. Walliman, Isidor and Dobkowski, Michael. Westport: Greenwood Press.Google Scholar
Harff, Barbara. 2003. “No Lessons Learned from the Holocaust? Assessing Risks of Genocide and Political Mass Murder since 1955.” American Political Science Review 97(1): 57–73.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hathaway, Oona. 2002. “Do Human Rights Treaties Make a Difference? Yale Law Review 111(8): 1935–2042.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Horowitz, Irving Louis. 1976. Genocide: State Power and Mass Murder. New Brunswick: Transaction Books.Google Scholar
Howard, Lise Morjé. 2008. UN Peascekeeping in Civil Wars. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Humphreys, Macartan, and Weinstein, Jeremy. 2006. “Handling and Manhandling Civilians in Civil War.” American Political Science Review 100(3): 429–447.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Institut National de la Statistique (Côte d'Ivoire) [INS]. 2001. Recensement Général de la Population et de l'Habitation de 1998, Volume IV: Analyses des Résultats, Tome 7: Activités Économiques.Google Scholar
International Cocoa Organization [ICO]. 1998–2010. Annual Report (multiple years). (www.icco.org/about/anualreport.aspx), accessed February 17, 2012.Google Scholar
International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda [ICTR]. 2008. The Prosecutor vs. Théoneste Bagosora et al. (ICTR-98-41-T), “Judgement and Sentence.” (www.unhcr.org/cgi-bin/texis/vtx/refworld/rwmain?docid=494fb4ff2), accessed February 17, 2012.Google Scholar
International Crisis Group. 2011. “Open Letter to the UN Security Council on the Situation in Côte d'Ivoire.” (www.crisisgroup.org/en/publication-type/media-releases/2011/open-letter-unsc-cote-divoire.aspx), accessed February 17, 2012.Google Scholar
Jacob Blaustein Institute for the Advancement of Human Rights with Special Adviser on the Prevention of Genocide, United Nations [JBIAHR]. 2011. Compilation of Risk Factors and Legal Norms for the Prevention of Genocide. New York: JBIAHR.Google Scholar
Jha, Saumitra. 2008. “Trade, Institutions, and Religious Tolerance: Evidence from India” (Research Paper No. 2004, Palo Alto, Stanford Graduate School of Business).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kaldor, Mary. 1999. New and Old Wars: Organized Violence in a Global Era. Palo Alto: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Kalyvas, Stathis. 2006. The Logic of Violence in Civil War. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Keck, Margaret, and Sikkink, Kathryn. 1998. Activists beyond Borders: Activist Networks in International Politics. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Kershaw, Ian. 2000. The Nazi Dictatorship: Problems and Perspectives of Interpretation, 4ed. London: Arnold.Google Scholar
Kiernan, Ben. 2007. Blood and Soil: A World History of Genocide and Extermination from Sparta to Darfur. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Krain, Matthew. 1997. “State-Sponsored Mass Murder: The Onset and Severity of Genocides and Politicides.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 41(3): 331–360.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kuper, Leo. 1981. Genocide: Its Political Use in the Twentieth Century. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
LeBor, Adam. 2006. The United Nations in the Age of Modern Genocide. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Leonard, David, and Straus, Scott. 2003. Africa's Stalled Development: International Causes and Cures. Boulder: Lynne Rienner.Google Scholar
Longerich, Peter. 2010. Holocaust: The Nazi Persecution and Murder of the Jews. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Longman, Timothy. 2010. Christianity and Genocide in Rwanda. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Mahoney, James, and Goertz, Gary. 2004. “The Possibility Principle: Choosing Negative Cases in Qualitative Research.” The American Political Science Review 98(4): 653–670.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mann, Michael. 2005. The Dark Side of Democracy: Explaining Ethnic Cleansing, New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Marshall-Fratani, Ruth. 2006. “The War of ‘Who Is Who’: Autochtony, Nationalism, and Citizenship in the Ivoirian Crisis.” African Studies Review 49(2): 9–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McMahon, Patrice. 2007. Taming Ethnic Hatred: Ethnic Cooperation and Transnational Networks in Eastern Europe. Syracuse: Syracuse University Press.Google Scholar
Melson, Robert. 1992. Revolution and Genocide: On the Origins of the Armenian Genocide and the Holocaust. Chicago: Chicago University Press.Google Scholar
Mendeloff, David. 2009. “Trauma and Vengeance: Assessing the Psychological and Emotional Effects of Post-Conflict Justice.” Human Rights Quarterly 31(3): 592–623.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Midlarsky, Manus. 2005. The Killing Trap: Genocide in the Twentieth Century. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Miguel, Edward, Satyanath, Shanker, and Sergenti, Ernest. 2004. “Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach.” Journal of Political Economy 112(4): 725–753.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Milgram, Stanley. 1974. Obedience to Authority: An Experimental View. New York: Harper and Row.Google Scholar
Monroe, Kristen Renwick. 2011. Ethics in an Age of Terrorism and Genocide: Identity and Moral Choice. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Moses, A. Dirk, ed. 2008. Empire, Colony, Genocide: Conquest, Occupation, and Subaltern Resistance in World History. New York: Bergahn.Google Scholar
Odendaal, Andries. 2010. An Architecture for Building Peace at the Local Level: A Comparative Study of Local Peace Committees. New York: United Nations Development Program.Google Scholar
Pape, Robert. 2003. “The Strategic Logic of Suicide Bombing.” American Political Science Review 97(3): 343–361.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Petersen, Roger. 2002. Understanding Ethnic Violence: Fear, Hatred, and Resentment in Twentieth Century Eastern Europe. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Power, Samantha. 2002. “A Problem from Hell”: America and the Age of Genocide. New York: PublicAffairs.Google Scholar
Reno, Will. 2011. Warfare in Independent Africa. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Robinson, Geoffrey. 2010. “If You Leave Us Here, We Will Die”: How Genocide Was Stopped in East Timor. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Ross, Michael. 2004. “How Does Natural Resource Wealth Influence Civil War?” International Organization 58(1): 35–67.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rummel, Rudolph. 1994. Death by Government. New Brunswick: Transaction Publishers.Google Scholar
Semelin, Jacques. 2007. Purify and Destroy: Political Uses of Massacres and Genocide. New York: Columbia University Press.Google Scholar
Shaw, Martin. 2003. War and Genocide: Organized Killing in Modern Society. Cambridge, UK: Polity.Google Scholar
Smith, David Livingstone. 2011. Less Than Human: Why We Demean, Enslave, and Exterminate Others. New York: St. Martin's Press.Google Scholar
Smith, Stephen. 2002. “En Côte d'Ivoire, le Spectre du Rwanda,” Le Monde (October 24).Google Scholar
Staub, Ervin. 1989. The Roots of Evil: The Origins of Genocide and Other Group Violence. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Straus, Scott. 2006. The Order of Genocide: Race, Power, and War in Rwanda. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Straus, Scott. 2007. “Second-Generation Comparative Research on Genocide.” World Politics 59(3): 476–501.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Straus, Scott. 2011. “‘It's Sheer Horror Here’: Patterns of Violence during the First four Months of Côte d'Ivoire's Post-Electoral Crisis.” African Affairs 110(140): 481–489.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Straus, Scott. 2012. “Wars Do End! Changing Patterns of Political Violence in Sub-Saharan Africa.” African Affairs (forthcoming).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Su, Yang. 2011. Collective Killings in Rural China during the Cultural Revolution. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tilly, Charles. 2003. The Politics of Collective Violence. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Totten, Samuel, and Parsons, Williams, eds. 2009. Century of Genocide: Critical Essays and Eyewitness Accounts, 3ed. New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
Ulfelder, Jay, and Valentino, Benjamin. 2008. “Assessing the Risks of State-Sponsored Mass Killing,” Political Instability Task Force, Washington, DC. http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1703426CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ungor, Ugor. 2006. “When Persecution Bleeds into Mass Murder: The Processive Nature of Genocide.” Genocide Studies and Prevention 1(2): 173–176.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
United Nations Development Program [UNDP]. 2011. “It Was Not How We Imagined It”: A Story of Dialogue, Conflict, and Peacebuilding in Bolivia. New York: UNDP.Google Scholar
United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights [UNHCHR]. 2003. Report of an Urgent Human Rights Mission to Côte d'Ivoire,” S/2003/90, Geneva.Google Scholar
United Nations Human Rights Council [UNHRC]. 2011. “Report of the Independent, International Commission of Inquiry on Côte d'Ivoire” (June 9).Google Scholar
United Nations Office of the Special Advisor on the Prevention of Genocide [UNOSAPG]. 2004. “Statement by the Special Advisor on the Prevention of Genocide.” (www.un.org/News/dh/infocus/westafrica/mendez-15nov2004.htm), accessed February 17, 2012.Google Scholar
Uppsala Conflict Data Program and International Peace Research Institute. 2011. UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset and Codebook, version 5-2011. (www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/datasets/ucdp_battle-related_deaths_dataset/), accessed February 17, 2012.Google Scholar
Uvin, Peter. 1998. Aiding Violence: The Development Enterprise in Rwanda. Hartford: Kumarian Press.Google Scholar
Valentino, Benjamin. 2004. Final Solutions: Mass Killing and Genocide in the Twentieth Century. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Valentino, Benjamin., Huth, Paul, and Balch-Lindsay, Dylan. 2004. “‘Draining the Sea’: Mass Killing and Guerrilla Warfare.” International Organization 58(1): 375–407.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Varshney, Ashutosh. 2002. Ethnic Conflict and Civic Life: Hindus and Muslims in India. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Waller, James. 2002. Becoming Evil: How Ordinary People Commit Genocide and Mass Killing. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weinstein, Jeremy. 2006. Inside Rebellion: The Politics of Insurgent Violence. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weitz, Eric. 2003. A Century of Genocide: Utopias of Race and Nation. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Wilkinson, Steven. 2004. Votes and Violence: Electoral Competition and Ethnic Riots in India. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wilshire, Bruce. 2006. Get 'Em All! Kill 'Em!: Genocide, Terrorism, Righteous Communities. Lanham: Lexington Books.Google Scholar
Wing, Susanna. 2008. Constructing Democracy in Transitioning Societies of Africa: Constitutionalism and Deliberation in Mali. New York: Palgrave: MacMillan.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wolpe, Howard, and McDonald, Steve. 2006. “Training Leaders for Peace.” Journal of Democracy 17(1): 126–132.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wood, Elisabeth Jean. 2006. “Variation of Sexual Violence during War.” Politics and Society 34(3): 307–341.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zimbardo, Phillip. 2007. The Lucifer Effect: Understanding How Good People Turn Evil. New York: Random House.Google Scholar