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The Impact of COVID-19 on Trump’s Electoral Demise: The Role of Economic and Democratic Accountability

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 August 2021

Anja Neundorf Open the ORCID record for Anja Neundorf [Opens in a new window]  and
Sergi Pardos-Prado Open the ORCID record for Sergi Pardos-Prado [Opens in a new window]
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Abstract

Did the COVID-19 crisis have a significant effect on Trump’s electoral demise? We present survey experimental evidence on two substantial effects of the pandemic. First, information on the unprecedented economic downturn significantly depressed Trump’s popular support across all partisan groups, and especially among middle-low and low-income respondents. Second, being primed on the poor public health record of the Trump administration reduced its electoral prospects among citizens between 55 and 70 years old. We conclude that the 2020 election was a normal contest compatible with theories of economic voting and political competence. Our results suggest that democratic accountability can be a powerful determinant of the fate of populist leaders once in power.

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Article
Information
Perspectives on Politics , Volume 20 , Issue 1 , March 2022 , pp. 170 - 186
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the American Political Science Association

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Footnotes

A list of permanent links to Supplemental Materials provided by the authors precedes the References section.

Data replication sets are available in Harvard Dataverse at: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/ZHGNOV

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Neundorf and Pardos-Prado Dataset

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https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/ZHGNOV
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