Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-dk4vv Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-25T19:08:09.411Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The Impact of COVID-19 on Trump’s Electoral Demise: The Role of Economic and Democratic Accountability

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 August 2021

Anja Neundorf Open the ORCID record for Anja Neundorf [Opens in a new window]  and
Sergi Pardos-Prado Open the ORCID record for Sergi Pardos-Prado [Opens in a new window]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Did the COVID-19 crisis have a significant effect on Trump’s electoral demise? We present survey experimental evidence on two substantial effects of the pandemic. First, information on the unprecedented economic downturn significantly depressed Trump’s popular support across all partisan groups, and especially among middle-low and low-income respondents. Second, being primed on the poor public health record of the Trump administration reduced its electoral prospects among citizens between 55 and 70 years old. We conclude that the 2020 election was a normal contest compatible with theories of economic voting and political competence. Our results suggest that democratic accountability can be a powerful determinant of the fate of populist leaders once in power.

Type
Article
Information
Perspectives on Politics , Volume 20 , Issue 1 , March 2022 , pp. 170 - 186
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the American Political Science Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

A list of permanent links to Supplemental Materials provided by the authors precedes the References section.

Data replication sets are available in Harvard Dataverse at: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/ZHGNOV

References

Acharya, Arnab, Gerring, John, and Reeves, Aaron. 2020. “Is Health Politically Irrelevant? Experimental Evidence during a Global Pandemic.” BMJ Global Health 5(10): e004222. http://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2020-004222 CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Akkerman, Agnes, Mudde, Cas, and Zaslove, Andrej. 2014. “How Populist Are the People? Measuring Populist Attitudes in Voters.” Comparative Political Studies 47(9): 1324–53.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Amat, Francesc, Arenas, Andreu, Falcó-Gimeno, Albert, and Muñoz, Jordi. 2020. “Pandemics Meet Democracy: Experimental Evidence from the COVID-19 Crisis in Spain.” SocArchiv Papers. https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/dkusw CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Arceneaux, Kevin, Bakker, Bert N., Hobolt, Sara, and de Vries, Catherine E.. 2020. “Is COVID-19 a Threat to Liberal Democracy?” PsyArXiv. https://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/8e4pa CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Arzheimer, Kai. 2009. “Contextual Factors and the Extreme Right Vote in Western Europe, 1980–2002.” American Journal of Political Science 53(2): 259–75.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Arzheimer, Kai. 2018. “Explaining Electoral Support for the Radical Right.” In The Oxford Handbook of the Radical Right, ed. Rydgren, Jens. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Bischof, Daniel. 2017. “New Graphic Schemes for Stata: Plotplain and Plottig.” Stata Journal 17(3): 748–59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bol, Damien, Giani, Marco, Blais, Andre, and Loewen, Peter. 2020. “The Effect of COVID‐19 Lockdowns on Political Support: Some Good News for Democracy?” European Journal of Political Research. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-6765.12401 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
van der Brug, Wouter, van der Eijk, Cees, and Franklin, Mark. 2007. The Economy and the Vote: Economic Conditions and Elections in Fifteen Countries. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Canning, D., Karra, M., Dayalu, R., Guo, M., and Bloom, D. E.. 2020. “The Association Between Age, COVID- 19 Symptoms, and Social Distancing Behavior in the United States.” medRxiv. doi:https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.19.20065219 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Daoust, J. F. 2020. “Elderly People and Responses to COVID-19 in 27 Countries.” Plos One 15(7):e0235590.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Duch, R. M., Palmer, H. D., and Anderson, C. J. 2000. “Heterogeneity in Perceptions of National Economic Conditions.” American Journal of Political Science 44:635–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Duch, R. M., and Stevenson, R.. 2010. “Context and Economic Expectations: When Do Voters Get It Right?” British Journal of Political Science 41(1): 1–31.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Duch, Raymond M., and Stevenson, Randolph T.. 2008. The Economic Vote: How Political and Economic Institutions Condition Election Results. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Evans, Geoffrey, and Andersen, Robert. 2006. “The Political Conditioning of Economic Perceptions.” Journal of Politics 68(1): 194–207.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Evans, Geoffrey, and Tilley, James. 2017. The New Politics of Class: The Political Exclusion of the British Working Class. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Federico, Christopher M., and de Zavala, Agnieszka Golec. 2018. “Collective Narcissism and the 2016 US Presidential Vote.” Public Opinion Quarterly 82(1): 110–21.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fraile, Marta, and Pardos-Prado, Sergi. 2014. “The Correspondence between the Objective and the Subjective Economies: The Role of Personal Economic Circumstances.” Political Studies 62(4): 895–912.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gidron, Noam, Adams, James, and Horne, Will. 2020. American Affective Polarization in Comparative Perspective. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gidron, Noam, and Jonathan, J. B. Mijs. 2019. “Do Changes in Material Circumstances Drive Support for Populist Radical Parties? Panel Data Evidence from the Netherlands During the Great Recession, 2007–2015.” European Sociological Review 35(5): 637–50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goetz, Stephan J., Davlasheridze, Meri, Han, Yicheol, and Fleming-Muñoz, David A.. 2018. “Explaining the 2016 Vote for President Trump across U.S. Counties.” Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy. https://doi.org/10.1093/aepp/ppy026 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Golder, Matt. 2016. “Far Right Parties in Europe.” Annual Review of Political Science 19: 477–97.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Green, Jane, and Jennings, Will. 2017. The Politics of Competence: Parties, Public Opinion and Voters. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Green, Jane, and Jennings, Will. 2019. “Party Reputations and Policy Priorities: How Issue Ownership Shapes Executive and Legislative Agendas.” British Journal of Political Science 49(2): 443–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grossman, Guy, Kim, Soojong, Rexer, Jonah M., and Thirumurthy, Harsha. 2020. “Political Partisanship Influences Behavioral Responses to Governors’ Recommendations for COVID-19 Prevention in the United States.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 117(39): 24144–24153.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Hobolt, Sara B., and Tilley, James. 2016. “Fleeing the Centre: The Rise of Challenger Parties in the Aftermath of the Euro Crisis.” West European Politics 39(5): 971–91.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hooghe, Marc, and Dassonneville, Ruth. 2018. “Explaining the Trump Vote: The Effect of Racist Resentment and Anti-Immigrant Sentiments.” PS: Political Science and Politics 51(3): 528–34.Google Scholar
Imai, Kosuke, Keele, Luke, Tingley, Dustin, and Yamamoto, Teppei. 2011. “Unpacking the Black Box of Causality: Learning about Causal Mechanisms from Experimental and Observational Studies.” American Political Science Review 105(4): 765–89.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Inglehart, Ronald, and Norris, Pippa. 2017. “Trump and the Populist Authoritarian Parties: The Silent Revolution in Reverse.” Perspectives on Politics 15(2): 443–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Iversen, Torben, and Soskice, David. 2006. “Electoral Institutions and the Politics of Coalitions: Why Some Democracies Redistribute More Than Others.” American Political Science Review 100(2): 165–81.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jones, S. R., Carley, S., and Harrison, M.. 2003. “An Introduction to Power and Sample Size Estimation.” Emergency Medicine Journal 20(5): 453–58.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Kenworthy, Lane, and Pontusson, Jonas. 2005. “Rising Inequality and the Politics of Redistribution in Affluent Countries.” Perspectives on Politics 3(3): 449–71.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Knuckey, Jonathan, and Hassan, Komysha. 2020. “Authoritarianism and Support for Trump in the 2016 Presidential Election.” Social Science Journal. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soscij.2019.06.008 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Krupnikov, Yanna, and Findley, Blake. 2018. “Survey Experiments: Managing the Methodological Costs and Benefits.” In The Oxford Handbook of Polling and Survey Methods, ed. Atkeson, Lonna Rae and Alvarez, R. Michael. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Kustov, Alexander, Laaker, Dillon, and Reller, Cassidy. 2019. “The Stability of Immigration Attitudes: Evidence and Implications.” Journal of Politics. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3322121 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Stegmaier, Mary. 2000. “Economic Determinants of Electoral Outcomes.” Annual Review of Political Science 3(1): 183–219.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Margalit, Yotam. 2013. “Explaining Social Policy Preferences: Evidence from the Great Recession.” American Political Science Review 107(1): 80–103.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morgan, Stephen L., and Lee, Jiwon. 2018. “Trump Voters and the White Working Class.” Sociological Science 5(10): 234–45.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mudde, Cas. 2007. Populist Radical Right Parties in Europe. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mutz, Diana C. 2018. “Status Threat, Not Economic Hardship, Explains the 2016 Presidential Vote.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 115(19): E4330–39.Google Scholar
Nadeau, Richard, Arel-Bundock, Vincent, and Daoust, Jean-François. 2019. “Satisfaction with Democracy and the American Dream.” Journal of Politics 81(3): 1080–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nadeau, Richard, Foucault, Martial, and Lewis-beck, Michael S.. 2010. “Patrimonial Economic Voting: Legislative Elections in France.” West European Politics 33(6): 1261–77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Norris, Pippa, and Inglehart, Ronald. 2019. Cultural Backlash. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Redlawsk, David P., Roseman, Ira J., Mattes, Kyle, and Katz, Steven. 2018. “Donald Trump, Contempt, and the 2016 GOP Iowa Caucuses.” Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 28(2): 173–89.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rehm, Philipp. 2009. “Risks and Redistribution: An Individual-Level Analysis.” Comparative Political Studies 42(7): 855–81.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reny, Tyler T., and Barreto, Matt A.. 2020. “Xenophobia in the Time of Pandemic: Othering, Anti-Asian Attitudes, and COVID-19.” Politics, Groups, and Identities. https://doi.org/10.1080/21565503.2020.1769693 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reny, Tyler T., Collingwood, Loren, and Valenzuela, Ali A.. 2019. “Vote Switching in the 2016 Election: How Racial and Immigration Attitudes, Not Economics, Explain Shifts in White Voting.” Public Opinion Quarterly 83(1): 91–113.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rudolph, Thomas. 2019. “Populist Anger, Donald Trump, and the 2016 Election.” Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 31(1): 33–58.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schaffner, Brian F., Macwilliams, Matthew, and Nteta, Tatishe. 2018. “Understanding White Polarization in the 2016 Vote for President: The Sobering Role of Racism and Sexism.” Political Science Quarterly 133(1): 9–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Setzler, Mark, and Yanus, Alixandra B.. 2018. “Why Did Women Vote for Donald Trump?” PS: Political Science and Politics 51(3): 523–27.Google Scholar
Sides, John, Tesler, Michael, and Vavreck, Lynn. 2017. “The 2016 U.S. Election: How Trump Lost and Won.” Journal of Democracy 28(2): 34–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Siemens, Ferdinand von. 2021. “Motivated Beliefs and the Elderly’s Compliance with COVID-19 Measures.” SAFE Working Paper 299. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3770589 Google Scholar
Spanje, Joost van. 2011. “Keeping the Rascals In: Anti‐Political‐Establishment Parties and Their Cost of Governing in Established Democracies.” European Journal of Political Research 50(5): 609–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stubager, Rune, Lewis-Beck, Michael, and Nadeau, Richard. 2013. “Reaching for Profit in the Welfare State: Patrimonial Economic Voting in Denmark.” Electoral Studies 32(3): 438–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tilley, James, Neundorf, Anja, and Hobolt, Sara B.. 2018. “When the Pound in People’s Pocket Matters: How Changes to Personal Financial Circumstances Affect Party Choice.” Journal of Politics 80(2): 555–69.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Vavreck, Lynn. 2009. The Message Matters: The Economy and Presidential Campaigns. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
de Vries, Catherine E., and Hobolt, Sara B.. 2020. Political Entrepreneurs: The Rise of Challenger Parties in Europe. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Yucesahin, M. Murat, and Sirkeci, Ibrahim. 2020. “Coronavirus and Migration: Analysis of Human Mobility and the Spread of COVID-19.” Migration Letters 17(2): 379–98.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Neundorf and Pardos-Prado supplementary material

Neundorf and Pardos-Prado supplementary material
Download Neundorf and Pardos-Prado supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 318.4 KB
Supplementary material: Link

Neundorf and Pardos-Prado Dataset

Dataset

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/ZHGNOV
Link