Hostname: page-component-745bb68f8f-cphqk Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-01-27T17:18:38.560Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Exit, Resistance, Loyalty: Military Behavior during Unrest in Authoritarian Regimes

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  21 March 2016

Holger Albrecht  and
Dorothy Ohl
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

A few years into the most recent wave of popular uprisings—the Arab Spring—studying regime trajectories in countries such as Syria, Egypt, and Yemen still seems like shooting at a moving target. Yet what has not escaped notice is the central role military actors have played during these uprisings. We describe how soldiers have three options when ordered to suppress mass unrest. They may exit the regime by remaining in the barracks or going into exile, resist by fighting for the challenger or initiating a coup d’état, or remain loyal and use force to defend the regime. We argue that existing accounts of civil-military relations are ill equipped to explain the diverse patterns in exit, resistance, and loyalty during unrest because they often ignore the effects of military hierarchy. Disaggregating the military and parsing the interests and constraints of different agents in that apparatus is crucial for explaining military cohesion during such crises. Drawing on extensive fieldwork we apply our principal-agent framework to explain varying degrees and types of military cohesion in three Arab Spring cases: Bahrain, Yemen, and Syria. Studying military hierarchy elucidates decision-making within authoritarian regimes amid mass mobilization and allows us to better explain regime re-stabilization, civil war onset, or swift regime change in the wake of domestic unrest.

Type
Articles
Information
Perspectives on Politics , Volume 14 , Issue 1 , March 2016 , pp. 38 - 52
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2016 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Al-Ali, Zaid. 2015. “Analysis: Here Is How to Beat ISIL in Iraq.” Al-Jazeera. April 15.Google Scholar
Albrecht, Holger. 2015. “The Myth of Coup-proofing: Risk and Instances of Military Coups d’état in the Middle East and North Africa, 1950–2013.” Armed Forces & Society 44(4): 659–87.Google Scholar
Albrecht, Holger and Bishara, Dina. 2011. “Back on Horseback: The Military and Political Transformation in Egypt.” Middle East Law and Governance 3(3): 13–23.Google Scholar
Aguero, Felipe. 1995. Soldiers, Civilians, and Democracy: Post-Franco Spain in Comparative Perspective. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Bahry, Luayy. 2000. “The Socioeconomic Foundations of the Shiite Opposition in Bahrain.” Mediterranean Quarterly 11(3): 129–43.Google Scholar
Bakke, Kristin, Gallagher Cunningham, Kathleen, and Seymour, Lee. 2012. “A Plague of Initials: Fragmentation, Cohesion, and Infighting in Civil Wars.” Perspectives on Politics 10(2): 265–83.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barany, Zoltan. 2011. “Comparing the Arab Revolts: The Role of the Military.” Journal of Democracy 22(4): 28–39.Google Scholar
Bassiouni, Mahmoud Cherif. 2011. Report of the Bahrain Independent Commission of Inquiry . Manama, online report (http://files.bici.org.bh/BICIreportEN.pdf), accessed December 16, 2015.Google Scholar
Bellin, Eva. 2004. “The Robustness of Authoritarianism in the Middle East: Exceptionalism in Comparative Perspective.” Comparative Politics 36(2): 139–57.Google Scholar
Bellin, Eva. 2012. “Reconsidering the Robustness of Authoritarianism: Lessons from the Arab Spring.” Comparative Politics 44(2): 127–49.Google Scholar
Bou Nassif, Hicham. 2015a. “A Military Besieged: The Armed Forces, the Police, and the Party in Bin Ali’s Tunisia, 1987–2011.” International Journal of Middle East Studies 47(1): 65–87.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bou Nassif, Hicham. 2015b. “‘Second Class:’ The Grievances of Sunni Officers in the Syrian Armed Forces.” Journal of Strategic Studies 38(5): 626–49.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brooks, Risa. 2013. “Abandoned at the Palace: Why the Tunisian Military Defected from the Ben Ali Regime in January 2011.” Journal of Strategic Studies 36(2): 205–20.Google Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce and Smith, Alastair. 2015. “Political Succession: A Model of Coups, Revolutions, Purges and Everyday Politics.” Journal of Conflict Resolution, online first (doi:10.1177/0022002715603100), accessed December 16, 2015.Google Scholar
Casper, Brett Allen and Tyson, Scott A.. 2014. “Popular Protest and Elite Coordination in a Coup d’état.” Journal of Politics 76(2): 548–64.Google Scholar
Chandra, Siddharth and Kammen, Douglas. 2002. “Generating Reforms and Reforming Generations: Military Politics in Indonesia’s Democratic Transition and Consolidation.” World Politics 55(1): 96–136.Google Scholar
Chulov, Martin and Hawramy, Fazel. 2014. “Iraqis Raise Questions over Army’s Collapse as Jihadi Advance Ssows.” The Guardian. June 17.Google Scholar
Cordesman, Anthony and Al-Rodhan, Khalid. 2006. Gulf Military Forces in an Era of Asymmetric Wars. Westport, CT: Greenwood International.Google Scholar
Decalo, Samuel. 1990. Coups and Army Rule in Africa. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Desch, Michael. 1999. Civilian Control of the Military: The Changing Security Environment. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Driscoll, Jesse. 2015. Warlords and Coalition Politics in Post-Soviet States. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Durac, Vincent. 2012. “Yemen’s Arab Spring—Democratic Opening or Regime Endurance?” Mediterranean Politics 17(2): 161–78.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Feaver, Peter. 2003. Armed Servants: Agency, Oversight, and Civil-Military Relations. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Gambill, Gary. 2002. “The Military-Intelligence Shakeup in Syria.” Middle East Intelligence Bulletin 4(2), online (http://www.meforum.org/meib/articles/0202_s1.htm), accessed December 16, 2015.Google Scholar
George, Alexander L. and Bennett, Andrew. 2005. Case Studies and Theory Development in the Social Sciences. Cambridge: MIT Press.Google Scholar
George, Princy. 2014. “Analysis: Why has the Iraqi army struggled to counter ISIL advance?” IHS Jane's 360. June 15, 2014. (http://www.janes.com/article/39259/analysis-why-has-the-iraqi-army-struggled-to-counter-isil-advance), accessed January 11, 2016.Google Scholar
Gerring, John. 2007. Case Study Research: Principles and Practices. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Gordon, Sasha and Zimmerman, Katherine. 2012. Yemen Order of Battle . At criticalthreats.org, accessed December 16, 2013.Google Scholar
Hale, Henry E. 2005. “Regime Cycles: Democracy, Autocracy, and Revolution in Post-Soviet Eurasia.” World Politics 58(1): 133–65.Google Scholar
Hirschman, Albert O. 1970. Exit, Voice, and Loyalty: Responses to Decline in Firms, Organizations, and States. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Holliday, Joseph. 2012. Syria’s Armed Opposition. Washington, DC: Institute for the Study of War.Google Scholar
Human Rights Watch. 2012. World Report 2012: Yemen. New York: HRW.Google Scholar
Hunter, Wendy. 1997. Eroding Military Influence in Brazil: Politicians against Soldiers. Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press.Google Scholar
International Crisis Group. 2005. Bahrain’s Sectarian Challenge. Brussels: ICG.Google Scholar
International Crisis Group. 2012. Yemen: Enduring Conflicts, Threatened Transition. Brussels: ICG.Google Scholar
International Crisis Group. 2013. Yemen’s Military-Security Sector Reform: Seeds of New Conflict? Brussels: ICG.Google Scholar
Kamrava, Mehran. 2000. “Military Professionalization and Civil-Military Relations in the Middle East.” Political Science Quarterly 115(1): 67–92.Google Scholar
Knights, Michael. 2013. “The Military Role in Yemen’s Protest: Civil-Military Relations in the Tribal Republic.” Journal of Strategic Studies 36(2): 261–88.Google Scholar
Kuran, Timur. 1991. “Now Out of Never: The Element of Surprise in the East European Revolution of 1989.” World Politics 44(1): 7–48.Google Scholar
Krebs, Ronald R. and Rapport, Aaron. 2012. “International Relations and the Psychology of Time Horizons.” International Studies Quarterly 56(4): 530–43.Google Scholar
Lee, Terence. 2005. “Military Cohesion and Regime Maintenance: Explaining the Role of the Military in 1989 China and 1998 Indonesia.” Armed Forces & Society 32(1): 80–104.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leenders, Reinoud and Heydemann, Steven. 2012. “Popular Mobilization in Syria: Opportunity and Threat, and the Social Network of the Early Risers.” Mediterranean Politics 17(2): 139–59.Google Scholar
Levitsky, Steven and Way, Lucan. 2010. Competitive Authoritarianism. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Levitsky, Steven, and Way, Lucan. 2012. “Beyond Patronage: Violent Struggle, Ruling Party Cohesion, and Authoritarian Durability.” Perspectives on Politics 10(4): 869–89.Google Scholar
Little, Andrew T. 2015. “Coordination, Learning, and Coups.” Journal of Conflict Resolution, online first (doi:10.1177/0022002714567953), accessed December 16, 2015.Google Scholar
Lutterbeck, Derek. 2013. “Arab Uprisings, Armed Forces, and Civil-Military Relations.” Armed Forces & Society 39(1): 28–52.Google Scholar
Lyall, Jason. 2014. “Why Armies Break: Explaining Mass Desertion in Conventional War.” Presented at the 2013 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association (APSA), Chicago, August 29 – September 1.Google Scholar
Makara, Michael. 2013. “Coup-Proofing, Military Defection, and the Arab Spring.” Democracy and Security 9(4): 334–59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Marinov, Nikolay and Goemans, Hein. 2014. “Coups and Democracy.” British Journal of Political Science 44(4): 799–825.Google Scholar
McLauchlin, Theodore. 2010. “Loyalty Strategies and Military Defection in Rebellion.” Comparative Politics 42(3): 333–50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McLauchlin, Theodore. 2015. “Desertion and Collective Action in Civil Wars.” International Studies Quarterly 59(4): 669–679.Google Scholar
“Mosul falls to militants, Iraqi forces flee northern city.” 2014. Reuters. June 11.Google Scholar
Nepstad, Sharon E. 2013. “Mutiny and Nonviolence in the Arab Spring: Exploring Military Defections and Loyalty in Egypt, Bahrain, and Syria.” Journal of Peace Research 50(3): 337–49.Google Scholar
Ohl, Dorothy, Albrecht, Holger, and Koehler, Kevin. 2015. “For Money or Liberty? The Political Economy of Military Desertion and Rebel Recruitment in the Syrian Civil War.” Carnegie Middle East Center. November 24, online (http://carnegieendowment.org/2015/10/24/for-money-or-liberty-political-economy-of-military-desertion-and-rebel-recruitment-in-syrian-civil-war/ilqf), accessed December 16, 2015.Google Scholar
O’Donnell, Guillermo and Schmitter, Philippe. 1986. Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Tentative Conclusions about Uncertain Democracies. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Phillips, Sarah. 2011. Yemen and the Politics of Permanent Crisis. London: Routledge.Google Scholar
Pion-Berlin, David, Esparza, Diego, and Grisham, Kevin. 2014. “Staying Quartered: Civilian Uprisings and Military Disobedience in the Twenty-First Century.” Comparative Political Studies 47(2): 230–59.Google Scholar
Pion-Berlin, David and Trinkunas, Harold. 2010. “Civilian Praetorianism and Military Shirking during Constitutional Crisis in Latin America.” Comparative Politics 42(4): 395–411.Google Scholar
Przeworski, Adam. 1991. Democracy and the Market. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Royal Embassy of Saudi Arabia. 2011. “Kingdom Stands by Bahrain.” Statement by the Government of Saudi Arabia, February 20, online (http://www.saudiembassy.net/latest_news/news02201101.aspx), accessed December 16 2015.Google Scholar
Russell, D. E. H. 1974. Rebellion, Revolution, and Armed Force: A Comparative Study of Fifteen Countries with Special Emphasis on Cuba and South Africa. New York, London: Academic Press.Google Scholar
Sagristano, Michael D., Trope, Yaacov, and Liberman, Nira. 2002. “Time Dependent Gambling: Odds Now, Money Later.” Journal of Experimental Psychology 131(3): 364–76.Google Scholar
Schedler, Andreas. 2013. The Politics of Uncertainty: Sustaining and Subverting Electoral Authoritarianism. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Seymour, Lee J. M. 2014. “Why Factions Switch Sides in Civil Wars: Rivalry, Patronage and Realignment in Sudan.” International Security 39(2): 92–131.Google Scholar
Shapiro, Susan P. 2005. “Agency Theory.” Annual Review of Sociology 31(1): 263–84.Google Scholar
Singh, Naunihal. 2014. Seizing Power: The Strategic Logic of Military Coups. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Snyder, Richard. 1992. “Explaining Transitions from Neopatrimonial Dictatorships.” Comparative Politics 24(4): 379–99.Google Scholar
Staniland, Paul. 2014. Networks of Rebellion: Explaining Insurgent Cohesion and Collapse. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Stepan, Alfred. 1988. Rethinking Military Politics: Brazil and the Southern Cone. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Svolik, Milan. 2012. The Politics of Authoritarian Rule. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Svolik, Milan. 2013. “Contracting on Violence: The Moral Hazard in Authoritarian Repression and Military Intervention in Politics.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 57(5): 765–94.Google Scholar
Trinkunas, Harold. 2005. Crafting Civilian Control of the Military in Venezuela. Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Van Dam, Nikolaos. 2011. The Struggle for Power in Syria. London: I.B. Tauris.Google Scholar
Waldner, David. 2015. “Process Tracing and Qualitative Causal Inference.” Security Studies 24(2): 239–50.Google Scholar
Weede, Erich and Muller, Edward N.. 1998. “Rebellion, Violence and Revolution: A Rational Choice Perspective.” Journal of Peace Research 35(1): 43–59.Google Scholar
Zisser, Eyal. 2001. “The Syrian Army: Between the Domestic and External Fronts.” Middle East Review of International Affairs 5(1), online (http://www.rubincenter.org/meria/2001/03/zisser.pdf), accessed December 16, 2015.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Albrecht and Ohl supplementary material

Online Appendix

Download Albrecht and Ohl supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 5.5 MB