The changes in Southern Black politics have been rapid, particularly in the last five years. So much so that as The South and the Transformation of US Politics—Charles Bullock et al.’s 2019 predecessor to the work reviewed here—was released, a number of important races in Florida, Georgia, and Virginia with competitive Black candidates were heating up. African American Statewide Candidates in the New South is the sequel, taking us through the salient statewide races in 2021.
Like its predecessor, the book is a collaborative effort, with each author taking the lead on a different case study. Charles Bullock takes Georgia, examining Stacey Abrams’s narrow loss in 2018, and Raphael Warnock’s win in 2020. Susan MacManus investigates Florida, and Andrew Gillum’s loss in the governor’s race. Mark Rozell authors the chapters on Black statewide candidates in Virginia and Jaime Harrison’s US Senate bid in South Carolina. And Jeremy Mayer takes the lead on the chapter reviewing African American presidential candidates, focusing on Kamala Harris, Cory Booker, and Deval Patrick.
Before diving into the case studies, the book zooms out, and looks more broadly at the factors influencing the likelihood of success for statewide candidates in the South. Specifically, the authors address two questions: (1) what are the patterns of success for Black candidates in the south, and (2) what is driving wins among Blacks—race or party? They build a dataset of statewide contests for the US Senate and constitutional offices in the South between 1998 and 2018 (n = 540 election contests). The first clear pattern is that Black statewide candidacies have been infrequent—74 contests over the 30-year span, and of these the vast majority (69) ran as Democrats. Second, Black candidates were more successful in the first 15 years of their analysis, although greater numbers of Black candidates ran in the second half.
The authors attribute the rise of Black statewide candidacies to several factors, including increased political activity among racial and ethnic minorities, changes in the share of racial and ethnic minorities in the Democratic Party, and more “qualified” candidates running. Together these factors have led to a weakening in the link between white population size and the failure of Black statewide candidate success.
To answer the question of race versus party, the authors run multivariate analyses, which suggest that it is often party. Indeed, the greatest driver of Democratic victories is Democratic incumbency, and Black Democrats consistently fare worse than their white counterparts. The authors conclude from this that although Black Democrats have won primaries more often, they have been less successful in converting those to general election wins.
The introductory chapter provides a detailed exploration of the statewide races between 1998 and 2018, but it is unclear how this multivariate modeling informs our understanding of the upcoming case studies. Extrapolating to the five case studies presented in the book, the results suggest that the Black statewide candidates examined in the book would be unlikely to win, and thus it is not surprising that only two of the five won their general elections. And the authors concede that additional factors not included in the multivariate models—being a political insider, having united party backing, campaign fundraising, multiracial coalitions—may also be important. So perhaps the cases are outliers, although the authors never concede this point.
Each of the case studies zoom into the elections, and includes all the “nonquantifiable factors” that influenced these elections. And for scholars interested in the deep dive, they will not be disappointed. Information about campaign finances, media and campaign strategy, legal battles during the campaign, poll results over time, election precinct maps, and historical analysis are provided in each of the case studies. The depth of data provided for each of these elections is impressive, and provides the reader with a play-by-play account. For scholars of state politics looking for detailed information, these chapters are captivating.
For example, the chapter centered on Stacey Abrams’s campaign and eventual defeat begins with a deep dive into her political experience prior to running for governor, and her success in rising through the ranks in the Georgia legislature. Bullock further details Abrams’s unique strategy—rather than looking to white voters, Abrams focused on increasing minority-voter and low-propensity voter turnout. Indeed, Brian Kemp (Abrams’s Republican rival in the general election) was accused of attempting to squash these efforts by removing options for mail-in absentee ballots and reducing the number of precincts in majority-Black wards. And Bullock concludes that although Abrams lost, her strategy was effective—she reduced the gap in votes by 75% compared to the last two Democratic governor candidates.
MacManus builds upon her earlier work on Florida’s Black trailblazers to elected office by extending her analysis to Andrew Gillum’s failed attempt for the governor’s office. She details his primary election, including registration rates by race and age, fundraising, television advertising, and the debates. She attributes his surprising win to many of the same factors Bullock discusses for Abrams in Georgia—particularly mobilization of Black voters who often have low turnout in midterm elections. MacManus then takes us through Gillum’s eventual loss to Trump acolyte Ron DeSantis, noting how race and racial cues clouded the debates and campaigning. Indeed, MacManus concludes that the significance of racialized language will influence and mobilize a new generation of Black candidacies in Florida.
The case study of Jaime Harrison’s race in South Carolina was equally engrossing. Rozell provides comprehensive details on voter characteristics, polling results, fundraising successes, and key endorsements, often month-by-month for the 12 months running up to the election. And despite expectations of a close race, Harrison lost to incumbent Lindsey Graham by a landslide—54 to 44%. Rozell’s analysis of the loss concludes that this outcome was predictable, following other elections with similar characteristics, particularly in the South.
Missing from the individual chapter case studies, however, is a unifying analytic framework. How do these cases collectively speak to larger changes in the South that the authors talk about in the introductory chapter? How do we understand the successes and failures in these case studies, as part of larger mechanisms at play? For scholars who want to examine the details of these elections, there is much to like. However, these chapters read more like an edited volume, rather than a coherent argument about how and why we see changes in the likelihood of Black statewide candidates.
In chapter 7, Mayer takes up the question of the presidency, and the role of Southern voters in the aspirations of Black presidential candidates. How, Mayer asks, do we understand the paradox of a crucial Black electorate in the South, but no Black candidates from the South? The author walks us through the last 50 years, starting with Shirley Chisholm in 1972; Jesse Jackson in 1984; Barack Obama in 2008; and Cory Booker, Kamala Harris, and Deval Patrick in 2020. Was Obama’s win transformative for Southern politics post 2012? How do we understand his win within the context of the other losses? Mayer argues that a crucial factor is Black voter turnout, as well as new voter regulations, and the racialized and polarized environment post-Trump. And he concludes that the barriers to a national Black candidate from the South have weakened over time.
The authors come back to the larger picture in the conclusion, reviewing the key factors that explain the success of Black candidates in the South, including changing demographics, partisanship, and the politics of race and religion. And then they compare the candidates explored along key variables—vote share by race and party and other demographics, and electability. The conclusion: Black victories require a mobilized and unified Black electorate and a substantial coalition of other Democrats, particularly white voters.
The last few paragraphs and postscript of the book remind us that the dynamics at play in these case studies are most likely the beginning of a new story of Black politics in the South, as we continue to watch candidates emerge for many statewide and national offices. African American Statewide Candidates in the New South will provide scholars with a foundation to understanding future Black electoral success.
