Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-l7hp2 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-30T23:08:09.608Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The Politics of Attributing Blame for Cyberattacks and the Costs of Uncertainty

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  23 November 2018

Marcus Schulzke
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Attribution is one of the most serious challenges associated with cyberattacks. It is often difficult to determine who launched an attack and why, which hinders efforts to formulate appropriate responses. Although the attribution problem has been discussed extensively in research on cybersecurity, it is generally approached as a technical challenge for security professionals and politicians. I contend that it is vital to take the attribution problem beyond this elite focus by considering how attributional challenges can interfere with the public’s efforts to understand security challenges and evaluate government actions. Faced with uncertainty and the confusion of attempting to understand novel cyber threats, citizens frequently lack the information they need to reliably identify the culprits behind attacks—or sometimes even to know whether an attack has taken place. I show that attributional uncertainty immediately following cyberattacks encourages dependence on a narrow range of elite frames and the assignment of blame to familiar enemies. Over time this promotes conspiratorial thinking and poses a risk to democratic accountability. When seen in light of these broader costs, the attribution problem becomes a vital political concern with implications that reach beyond the scope of elite-focused cybersecurity research.

Type
Special Section Article
Information
Perspectives on Politics , Volume 16 , Issue 4 , December 2018 , pp. 954 - 968
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2018 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Associated Press. 2014. “Evidence in Sony Hack Is Largely Circumstantial, Sources Say. Denver Post, December 18. Available at http://www.denverpost.com/2014/2012/2018/evidence-in-sony-hack-is-largely-circumstantial-sources-say/.Google Scholar
Arceneaux, Kevin. 2003. “The Conditional Impact of Blame Attribution on the Relationship Between Economic Adversity and Turnout.” Political Research Quarterly 56(1): 67–75.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Arkin, William M. 1999. “Sunrise, Sunset.” Washington Post, March 29. Available at https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/national/dotmil/arkin032999.htm.Google Scholar
Atkeson, Lonna Rae and Maestas, Cherie D.. 2012. Catastrophic Politics: How Extraordinary Events Redefine Perceptions of Government. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bartels, Larry M. 2002. “Beyond the Running Tally: Partisan Bias in Political Perceptions.” Political Behavior 24(2): 117–50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bartholomew, Brian and Guerrero-Saade, Juan Andres. 2016. “Wave Your False Flags!”. Presented at the Virus Bulletin Conference, Denver, CO, October 5–7.Google Scholar
Baum, Matthew A. and Groeling, Tim. 2010. “Reality Asserts Itself: Public Opinion on Iraq and the Elasticity of Reality.” International Organization 64: 443–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bennett, W. Lance, Lawrence, Regina G. and Livingston, Steven. 2007. When the Press Fails: Political Power and the News Media from Iraq to Katrina. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berinsky, Adam J. 2009. In Time of War: Understanding American Public Opinion from World War II to Iraq. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brader, Ted. 2006. Campaigning for Hearts and Minds: How Emotional Appeals in Political Ads Work. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Brenner, Joel. 2011. America the Vulnerable: Inside the New Threat Matrix of Digital Espionage, Crime, and Warfare. New York: PenguinGoogle Scholar
Brenner, Susan. 2014. Cyberthreats and the Decline of the Nation-State. London: Routledge.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brown, Adam R. 2010. “Are Governors Responsible for the State Economy? Partisanship, Blame, and Divided Federalism.” Journal of Politics 72(3): 605–15.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carlin, Ryan E. Love, Gregory J., and Martínez-Gallardo, Cecilia. 2014. “Security, Clarity of Responsibility, and Presidential Approval.” Comparative Political Studies 48(4): 438–63.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Corera, Gordon. 2016. “How France’s TV5 Was Almost Destroyed by ‘Russian Hackers’.” BBC News, October 10. Available at http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-37590375.Google Scholar
Druckman, James N. 2004. “Political Preference Formation: Competition, Deliberation, And The (Ir) Relevance Of Framing effects.” American Political Science Review 98(4): 671–86.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dyer, Geoff. 2016. “Hackers Attack Arizona and Illinois Election Computer Systems ” Financial Times, August 29. Available at https://www.ft.com/content/1ea03bf4-6e2e-11e6-9ac1-1055824ca907.Google Scholar
Economist. 2011. “Who Is to Blame?” December 24. Available at http://www.economist.com/blogs/newsbook/2011/2012/attacks-syria.Google Scholar
Entman, Robert M. 2004. Projections of Power: Framing News, Public Opinion, and U.S. Foreign Policy. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Eun, Yong-Soo and Sita Aßmann, Judith. 2016. “Cyberwar: Taking Stock of Security and Warfare in the Digital Age.” International Studies Perspectives 17(3): 343–60.Google Scholar
Farwell, James P. and Rohozinski, Rafal. 2011. “Stuxnet and the Future of Cyber War.” Survival: Global Politics and Strategy 53(1): 23–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Forsyth, Donelson R. 1980. “The Functions of Attributions.” Social Psychology Quarterly 43(2): 184–98.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fox-Brewster, Thomas. 2015. “Gaza Resident Linked to Cyber Attacks on Israel: Security Company Has Put My Life in Danger.” Forbes, February 24. Available at https://www.forbes.com/sites/thomasbrewster/2015/02/24/trend-micro-worrying-attribution-of-gaza-strip-businessman/#1dd668392e9e.Google Scholar
Garrett, R. Kelly. 2011. “Troubling Consequences of Online Political Rumoring.” Human Communication Research 37: 255–74.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gartzke, Erik and Lindsay, Jon R.. 2015. “Weaving Tangled Webs: Offense, Defense, and Deception in Cyberspace.” Security Studies 24(2): 316–48.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gomez, Brad T. and Matthew Wilson, J.. 2003. “Causal Attribution and Economic Voting in American Congressional Elections.” Political Research Quarterly 56(3): 271–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Graber, Doris A. 2005. Mass Media and American Politics. Washington, DC: CQ Press.Google Scholar
Green, James A., ed. 2015. Cyber Warfare: A Multidisciplinary Analysis. New York: Routledge.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Haider-Markel, Donald P. and Joslyn, Mark R.. 2001. “Gun Policy, Opinion, Tragedy, and Blame Attribution: The Conditional Influence of IssueFrames.” Journal of Politics 63(2): 520–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Henley, Jon and Traynor, Ian. 2015. “Fight against Isis Heats Up as UN Backs Action after Paris Attacks ” The Guardian, November 22. Available at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/21/fight-against-isis-heats-up-as-un-backs-action-after-paris-attacks.Google Scholar
Holsti, Ole Rudolf. 2011. American Public Opinion on the Iraq War. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hood, Christopher. 2010. The Blame Game: Spin, Bureaucracy, and Self-Preservation in Government. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Iyengar, Shanto. 1989. “How Citizens Think about National Issues: A Matter of Responsibility.” American Journal of Political Science 33(4): 878–900.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Iyengar, Shanto. 1990. “Framing Responsibility for Political Issues: The Case of Poverty. Political Behavior 12(1): 19–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kaplan, Fred. 2016. Dark Territory: The Secret History of Cyber War. New York: Simon & Schuster.Google Scholar
Kaufmann, Chaim. 2004. “Threat Inflation and the Failure of the Marketplace of Ideas: The Selling of the Iraq War.” International Security 29(1): 5–48.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kershner, Isabel. 2013. “Israel Says It Repelled Most Attacks on Its Web Sites by Pro-Palestinian Hackers.” New York Times, April 7. Available at http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/08/world/middleeast/pro-palestinian-hackers-attack-israeli-sites.html?_r=0.Google Scholar
Konkes, Claire and Lester, Libby. 2017. “Incomplete Knowledge, Rumour and Truth Seeking.” Journalism Studies 18(7): 826–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kühne, Rinaldo, Weber, Patrick, and Sommer, Katharina. 2015. “Beyond Cognitive Framing Processes: Anger Mediates the Effects of Responsibility Framing on the Preference for Punitive Measures.” Journal of Communication 65: 259–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Libickim Martin, C. 2009 Cyberdeterrence and Cyberwar. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation.Google Scholar
Lichtblau, Eric and Myers, Steven Lee. 2016. “Investigating Donald Trump, F.B.I. Sees No Clear Link to Russia.” New York Times, October 31. Available at http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/01/us/politics/fbi-russia-election-donald-trump.html?_r=0.Google Scholar
Lindsay, Jon R. 2015. “Tipping the Scales: The Attribution Problem and the Feasibility of Deterrence against Cyberattack.” Journal of Cybersecurity 1(1): 53–67.Google Scholar
Lui, Kevin. 2016. “Russian Hackers Could Fake Evidence of Electoral Fraud, Warn U.S. Officials.” Time, October 20. Available at http://time.com/4539904/fake-voter-fraud-russia-us-election-hack-warning/.Google Scholar
Maestas, Cherie D., Rae Atkeson, Lonna, Croom, Thomas, and Bryant, Lisa A.. 2008. “Shifting the Blame: Federalism, Media, and Public Assignment of Blame Following Hurricane Katrina.” Publius: The Journal of Federalism 38(4): 609–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Malhotra, Neil and Kuo, Alexander G.. 2008. “Attributing Blame: The Public’s Response to Hurricane Katrina.” Journal of Politics 70(1): 120–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Marcus, George E., Russell Neuman, W., and MacKuen, Michael. 2003. Affective Intelligence and Political Judgment. Chicago University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Mazzetti, Mark. 2013. Way of The Knife: The CIA, A Secret Army, and a War at the Ends of the Earth. New York: Penguin.Google Scholar
Miller, Joanne M., Saunders, Kyle L., and Farhart, Christina E.. 2015. “Conspiracy Endorsement as Motivated Reasoning: The Moderating Roles of Political Knowledge and Trust.” American Journal of Political Science 60(4): 824–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nawara, P. Steven. 2015. “Who Is Responsible, the Incumbent or the Former President? Motivated Reasoning in Responsibility Attributions.” Presidential Studies Quarterly 45(1): 110–31.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Newman, Lily Hay. 2017. “The Equifax Breach Exposes America’s Identity Crisis.” Wired, September 8. Available at https://www.wired.com/story/the-equifax-breach-exposes-americas-identity-crisis/.Google Scholar
Niva, Steve. 2013. “Disappearing Violence: JSOC and the Pentagon’s New Cartography of Networked Warfare.” Security Dialogue 44(3): 185–202.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nyhan, Brendan, Reifler, Jason, and Ubel, Peter A.. 2013. “The Hazards of Correcting Myths about Health Care Reform.” Medical Care 51(2): 127–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Oliver, J. Eric and Wood, Thomas J.. 2014. “Conspiracy Theories and the Paranoid Style(s) of Mass Opinion.” American Journal of Political Science 58(4): 952–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Peffley, Mark 1984. “The Voter as Juror: Attributing Responsibility for Economic Conditions.” Political Behavior 6(3): 275–94.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Poulsen, Kevin. 2008. “Did Hackers Cause the 2003 Northeast Blackout? Umm, No.” Wired, May 29. Available at https://www.wired.com/2008/05/did-hackers-cau/.Google Scholar
Poulsen, Kevin. 2009. “Report: Cyber Attacks Caused Power Outages in Brazil.” Wired, November 7. Available at https://www.wired.com/2009/11/brazil/.Google Scholar
Rid, Thomas. 2013. Cyber War Will Not Take Place. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Rid, Thomas and Buchanan, Ben. 2015. “Attributing Cyber Attacks.” Journal of Strategic Studies 38(1-2): 4–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rudolph, Thomas J. 2003. “Who’s Responsible for the Economy? The Formation and Consequences of Responsibility Attributions.” American Journal of Political Science 47(4): 698–713.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Russell, Alec. 2004. “CIA Plot Led to a HUGE BLAST in Siberian Gas Pipeline. The Telegraph, February 28. Available at http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/1455559/CIA-plot-led-to-huge-blast-in-Siberian-gas-pipeline.html.Google Scholar
Sanger, David. 2013. “U.S. Blames China’s Military Directly for Cyberattacks.” New York Times, May 6. Available at http://www.nytimes.com/2013/2005/2007/world/asia/us-accuses-chinas-military-in-cyberattacks.html?_r=2010.Google Scholar
Serjoie, Kay Armin. 2016. “Iran Investigates If Series of Oil Industry Accidents Were Caused by Cyber Attack.” Time, August 12. Available at http://time.com/4450433/iran-investigates-if-series-of-oil-industry-accidents-were-caused-by-cyber-attack/.Google Scholar
Sheldon, John. 2014. “Geopolitics and Cyber Power: Why Geography Still Matters.” American Foreign Policy Interests 36(5): 286–93.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Starr, Barbara 2016. “US blames Russia for Syria Convoy Attack; Moscow Points to Terrorists.” CNN, September 21. Available at http://edition.cnn.com/2016/2009/2020/politics/syria-convoy-strike-us-conclusion-russia/.Google Scholar
Stone, Deborah. 1989. “Causal Stories and the Formation of Policy Agendas.” Political Science Quarterly 104(2): 281–300.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Strohm, Chris, Dorning, Mike, and Riley, Michael. 2016. “FBI Investigating DNC Hack Some Democrats Blame on Russia.” Bloomberg, July 25. Available at http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-2007-2025/fbi-investigating-dnc-cyber-hack-some-democrats-blame-on-russia.Google Scholar
Swami, Viren, Voracek, Martin, Stieger, Stefan, Tran, Ulrich S., and Furnham, Adrian. 2014. “Analytic Thinking Reduces Belief in Conspiracy Theories.” Cognition 133(3): 572–85.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Swami, Viren and Furnham, A.. 2014. “Political Paranoia and Conspiracy Theories.” In Power Politics, and Paranoia: Why People Are Suspicious of Their Leaders, ed. Prooijen, J. P. and van Lange, P. A. M.. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Traynor, Ian. 2007. “Russia Accused of Unleashing Cyberwar to Disable Estonia.” The Guardian. Available at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2007/may/2017/topstories2003.russia.Google Scholar
Uscinski, Joseph E., Klofstad, Casey, and Atkinson, Matthew D.. 2016. “What Drives Conspiratorial Beliefs? The Role of Informational Cues and Predispositions.” Political Research Quarterly 69(1): 57–71.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Uscinski, Joseph E. and Parent, Joseph M.. 2014. American Conspiracy Theories. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Walker, Margaret Urban. 2006. Moral Repair: Reconstructing Moral Relations after Wrongdoing. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wong, Julia Carrie. 2017. “Uber Concealed Massive Hack that Exposed Data of 57m Users and Drivers.” The Guardian, November 22. Available at https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2017/nov/21/uber-data-hack-cyber-attack.Google Scholar
YouGov. 2016. “Belief in Conspiracies Largely Depends on Political Identity.” Available at https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/12/27/belief-conspiracies-largely-depends-political-iden/Google Scholar
Zaller, John. 1992. The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zetter, Kim. 2011. Countdown to Zero Day: Stuxnet and the Launch of the World’s First Digital Weapon. New York: Crown.Google Scholar
Zetter, Kim. 2014. “The Evidence that North Korea Hacked Sony Is Flimsy.”. Wired, December 17. Available at https://www.wired.com/2014/2012/evidence-of-north-korea-hack-is-thin/.Google Scholar
Zetter, Kim. 2016. “Inside the Cunning, Uncprecedented Hack of Ukraine’s Power Grid.” Wired, March 3. Available at https://www.wired.com/2016/03/inside-cunning-unprecedented-hack-ukraines-power-grid/.Google Scholar