Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-l7hp2 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-28T14:46:03.426Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Is There a Trump Effect? An Experiment on Political Polarization and Audience Costs

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  13 May 2019

Miles M. Evers Open the ORCID record for Miles M. Evers [Opens in a new window] ,
Aleksandr Fisher  and
Steven D. Schaaf Open the ORCID record for Steven D. Schaaf [Opens in a new window]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Does President Trump face domestic costs for foreign policy inconsistency? Will co-partisans and opposition-partisans equally punish Donald Trump for issuing flippant international threats and backing down? While the president said he could “stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody” without losing voters, the literature consistently shows that individuals, regardless of partisanship, disapprove of leaders who jeopardize the country’s reputation for credibility and resolve. Given the atypical nature of the Trump presidency, and the severe partisan polarization surrounding it, we investigate whether the logic of audience costs still applies in the Trump era. Using a unique experiment fielded during the 2016 presidential transition, we show that Republicans and Democrats impose equal audience costs on President Trump. And by varying the leader’s identity, between Donald Trump, Barack Obama, and “The President,” we demonstrate that the public adheres to a non-partisan logic in punishing leaders who renege on threats. Yet we also find Presidents Trump and Obama can reduce the magnitude of audience costs by justifying backing down as being “in America’s interest.” Even Democrats, despite their doubts of Donald Trump’s credibility, accept such justifications. Our findings encourage further exploration of partisan cues, leader-level attributes, and leader-level reputations.

Type
Special Section: Consequences
Information
Perspectives on Politics , Volume 17 , Issue 2 , June 2019 , pp. 433 - 452
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2019 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

A list of permanent links to Supplemental Materials provided by the authors precedes the References section.

They are especially grateful for the comments, criticisms, and support of John Sides, Rachel Stein, Eric Grynaviski, Yonatan Lupu, Elizabeth Saunders, Joshua Kertzer, Bill Pickens, as well as four anonymous reviewers and the editors of Perspectives on Politics.

References

Abramowitz, Alan I. and Webster., Steven 2016. “The Rise of Negative Partisanship and the Nationalization of US Elections in the 21st Century.” Electoral Studies 41: 12–22.10.1016/j.electstud.2015.11.001CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Agiesta, Jennifer. 2017. “CNN Poll: One Year Later: Less Confidence, Less Tryst in President Trump.” CNN, November 8. Retrieved July 10, 2018 (https://www.cnn.com/2017/11/08/politics/cnn-poll-trump-one-year-later/index.html).Google Scholar
Arceneaux, Kevin. 2008. “Can Partisan Cues Diminish Democratic Accountability?” Political Behavior 30(2): 139-60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bafumi, Joseph and Parent, Joseph M.. 2012. “International Polarity and America’s Polarization.” International Politics 49(1): 1–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baker, Peter and Sang-Hun, Chloe. 2017. “Trump Threatens ‘Fire and Fury’ Against North Korea and It Endangers U.S.” New York Times, August 8. Retrieved July 10, 2018 (https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/08/world/asia/north-korea-un-sanctions-nuclear-missile-united-nations.html).Google Scholar
Baum, Matthew. 2004. “Going Private: Public Opinion, Presidential Rhetoric, and the Domestic Politics of Audience Costs in U.S. Foreign Policy Crises.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 48(5): 603–31.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baum, Matthew A. and Groeling., Tim 2010. “Reality Asserts Itself: Public Opinion on Iraq and the Elasticity of Reality.” International Organization 64(3): 443–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baum, Matthew A. and Groeling., Tim 2010. “Reality Asserts Itself: Public Opinion on Iraq and the Elasticity of Reality.” International Organization 64(3): 443–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baum, Matthew A. and Potter, Philip B. K.. 2008. “The Relationships between Mass Media, Public Opinion, and Foreign Policy.” Annual Review of Political Science 11: 39–65.10.1146/annurev.polisci.11.060406.214132CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baum, Matthew A. and Groeling., Tim 2015. War and Democratic Constraint: How the Public Influences Foreign Policy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Berinsky, Adam J. 2007. “Assuming the Costs of War: Events, Elites, and American Public Support for Military Conflict.” Journal of Politics 69(4): 975–97.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berinsky, Adam J. 2009. In Time of War: Understanding American Public Opinion from World War II to Iraq. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.10.7208/chicago/9780226043463.001.0001CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boudreau, Cheryl and MacKenzie, Scott. 2014. “Informing the Electorate? How Party Cues and Policy Information Affect Public Opinion About Initiatives.” American Journal of Political Science 58(1): 48–62.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brody, Richard A. 1991. Assessing the President: The Media, Elite Opinion, and Public Support. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Brutger, Ryan and Kertzer, Joshua D.. 2018. “A Dispositional Theory of Reputation Costs.” International Organization 72(3): 1–32.10.1017/S0020818318000188CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Buhrmester, Michael, Kwang, Tracy, and Gosling, Samuel D.. 2011. “Amazon’s Mechanical Turk: A New Source of Inexpensive, Yet High-Quality, Data?” Perspectives on Psychological Science 6(1): 3–5.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, Morrow, James D., Siverson, Randolph M., and Smith., Alastair 1999. “An Institutional Explanation of the Democratic Peace.” American Political Science Review 93(4): 791–807.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cameron, Charles M. 2002. “Studying the Polarized Presidency.” Presidential Studies Quarterly 32(4): 647– 63.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chaudoin, Stephen, Milner, Helen V., and Tingley, Dustin H.. 2010. “The Center Still Holds: Liberal Internationalism Survives.” International Security 35(1): 75–94.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chapman, Terrence L. and Reiter., Dan 2004. “The United Nations Security Council and the Rally ’round the Flag Effect.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 48(6): 886–909.10.1177/0022002704269353CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chen, Ted Hsuan Yun. 2016. “Measuring Audience Cost: An Experimental Design that Recovers Preferences for Consistency with Less Confounding.” Prepared for NYU CESS 9th Annual Experimental Political Science Conference, February 19–20 (https://wp.nyu.edu/cesspolicon2016/wp-content/uploads/sites/3319/2016/02/Chen_Measuring-Audience-Cost_1600212NYUCESS.pdf).Google Scholar
Chiozza, Giacomo. 2015. “Presidents on the Cycle: Elections, Audience Costs, and Coercive Diplomacy, Presidents on the Cycle: Elections, Audience Costs, and Coercive Diplomacy.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 34(1): 3–26.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chiozza, Giacomo and Goemans, H. E.. 2011. Leaders and International Conflict. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Christenson, Dino P. and Kriner, Douglas L.. 2017. “Constitutional Qualms or Politics as Usual? The Factors Shaping Public Support for Unilateral Action.” American Journal of Political Science 61(2): 335–49.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clifford, Scott, Jewell, Ryan M, and Waggoner, Philip D.. 2015. “Are Samples Drawn from Mechanical Turk Valid for Research on Political Ideology?” Research & Politics 2(4): 1–9.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cohen, Geoffrey L. 2003. “Party over Policy: The Dominating Impact of Group Influence on Political Beliefs.” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 85(5): 808–22.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Colaresi, Michael. 2007. “The Benefit of the Doubt: Testing an Informational Theory of the Rally Effect.” International Organization 61(1): 99–143.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cook, Alexandra C., Hill, Nathan J., Trichka, Mary I., Hwang, Grace J., and Sommers, Paul M.. 2017. “Who Voted for Trump in 2016?” Open Journal of Social Sciences 5(7): 199–210.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Croco, Sarah E. 2011. “The Decider’s Dilemma: Leader Culpability, War Outcomes, and Domestic Punishment.” American Political Science Review 105(3): 457–77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Croco, E. Sarah and McDonald, Jared A.. 2017. “Trump’s Supporters Don’t Care about His Flip-Flops on Syria. We Checked.” Washington Post. Retrieved July 10, 2018 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/05/03/trumps-supporters-dont-care-about-his-policy-reversal-on-syria-we-checked/?utm_term=.9b6b47be4029).Google Scholar
Dafoe, Allen, Renshon, Jonathon, and Huth, Paul. 2014. “Reputation and Status as Motives for War.” Annual Review of Political Science, 17: 371–93.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dafoe, Allan, Zhang, Baobao, and Caughey, Devin. 2018. “Information Equivalence in Survey Experiments.” Unpublished manuscript. Retrieved July 10, 2018 (http://www.allandafoe.com/ie).Google Scholar
Davies, Graeme A. M. and Johns., Robert 2013. “Audience Costs among the British Public: The Impact of Escalation, Crisis Type, and Prime Ministerial Rhetoric.” International Studies Quarterly 57(4): 725–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
de la Torre, Carlos. 2017. “Trump’s Populism: Lessons from Latin America.” Postcolonial Studies 20(2): 187-98.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Diamond, Jeremy. 2016. “Trump: I could ’Shoot Somebody and I Wouldn’t Lose Voters’” CNN Politics. Retrieved March 1, 2018 (https://www.cnn.com/2016/01/23/politics/donald-trump-shoot-somebody-support/index.html).Google Scholar
Downie, James. 2017. “Dear Democrats: Stop Rehabilitating George W. Bush.” Washington Post. Retrieved March 1, 2018 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/wp/2017/10/26/dear-democrats-stop-rehabilitating-george-w-bush/?utm_term=.998324d1b23a).Google Scholar
Downs, Anthony. 1957. “An Economic Theory of Political Action in a Democracy.” Journal of Political Economy 65(2): 135–50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Drezner, Daniel. 2018. “The Strange Thing about Polarization and Foreign Policy.” Washington Post. Retrieved June 14, 2018 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/posteverything/wp/2018/04/12/the-stranger-things-about-polarization-and-foreign-policy/?utm_term=.d82aa9d0810a).Google Scholar
Druckman, James N., Peterson, Erik, and Slothuus, Rune. 2013. “How Elite Partisan Polarization Affects Public Opinion Formation.” American Political Science Review 107(1): 57–79.10.1017/S0003055412000500CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eichenberg, Richard C. 2005. “Victory Has Many Friends: US Public Opinion and the Use of Military Force, 1981–2005.” International Security 30(1): 140–77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Farrell, Henry. 2017. “North Korea Just Called Trump’s Bluff. So What Happens Now?” Washington Post. Retrieved July 23, 2018 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/08/08/donald-trump-is-playing-a-dangerous-game-with-north-korea/?utm_term=.f7eae64bcf8b).Google Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1994. “Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes.” American Political Science Review 88(3): 577–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Federico, Christopher M. and Hunt., Corrie V. 2013. “Political Information, Political Involvement, and Reliance on Ideology in Political Evaluation.” Political Behavior 35(1): 89–112.10.1007/s11109-011-9184-7CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gartner, Scott Sigmund. 2008. “The Multiple Effects of Casualties on Public Support for War: An Experimental Approach.” American Political Science Review 102(1): 95–106.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gartzke, Erik and Lupu, Yonatan. 2012. “Still Looking for Audience Costs.” Security Studies 21(3): 391–97.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gaubatz, Kurt Taylor. 1996. “Democratic States and Commitment in International Relations.” International Organization 50(1): 109–39.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gelpi, Christopher, Feaver, Peter D., and Reifler, Jason. 2009. Paying the Human Costs of War: American Public Opinion and Casualties in Military Conflicts. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gelpi, Christopher and Grieco, Joseph M.. 2015. “Competency Costs in Foreign Affairs: Presidential Performance in International Conflicts and Domestic Legislative Success, 1953–2001.” American Journal of Political Science 59(2): 440–56.10.1111/ajps.12169CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gerber, Alan and Malhotra, Neil. 2008. “Do Statistical Reporting Standards Affect What Is Published? Publication Bias in Two Leading Political Science Journals.” Quarterly Journal of Political Science 3(3): 313–26.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gowa, Joanne. 1998. “Politics at the Water’s Edge: Parties, Voters, and the use of Force Abroad.” International Organization 52(2): 307–24.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Guisinger, Alexandra and Saunders, Elizabeth N.. 2017. “Mapping the Boundaries of Elite Cues: How Elites Shape Mass Opinion across International Issues.” International Studies Quarterly 61(2): 425–41.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Guisinger, Alexandra and Smith, Alastair. 2002. “Honest Threats: The Interaction of Reputation and Political Institutions in International Crises.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 46(2): 175–200.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Haynes, Kyle. 2012. “Lame Ducks and Coercive Diplomacy: Do Executive Term Limits Reduce the Effectiveness of Democratic Threats?” Journal of Conflict Resolution 56(5): 771–98.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Herrmann, Richard K., Tetlock, Philip E., and Visser., Penny S. 1999. “Mass Public Decisions on Going to War: A Cognitive-Interactionist Framework.” American Political Science Review 93(3): 553–73.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hetherington, Marc J. 2001. “Resurgent Mass Partisanship: The Role of Elite Polarization.” American Political Science Review 95(3): 619–31.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hirschfeld Davis, Julie. 2018. “Trump Drops Push for Immediate Withdrawal of Troops from Syria.” New York Times. Retrieved July 23, 2018 (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/04/world/middleeast/trump-syria-troops.html).Google Scholar
Holsti, Ole R. 2004. Public Opinion and American Foreign Policy. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Horowitz, Michael C., Stam, Allan C., and Ellis, Cali M.. 2015. Why Leaders Fight. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hurwitz, Jon and Peffley, Mark. 1987. “How Are Foreign Policy Attitudes Structured? A Hierarchical Model.” American Political Science Review 81(4): 1099–120.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ikenberry, G. John, Parmar, Inderjeet, and Stokes, Doug. 2018. “Introduction: Ordering the World? Liberal Internationalism in Theory and Practice.” International Affairs 94(1): 1–5.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Imai, Kosuke, Keele, Luke, Tingley, Dustin, and Yamamoto, Teppei. 2011. “Unpacking the Black Box of Causality: Learning about Causal Mechanisms from Experimental and Observational Studies.” American Political Science Review 105(4): 765–89.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Imai, Kosuke ,and Yamamoto, Teppei. 2013. “Identification and Sensitivity Analysis for Multiple Causal Mechanisms: Revisiting Evidence from Framing Experiments.” Political Analysis 21(2): 141–71.10.1093/pan/mps040CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jacobs, Ben. 2017. “Trump Threatens ’Military Option’ in Venezuela As Crisis Escalates.” The Guardian. Retrieved March 1, 2018 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/11/donald-trump-venezuela-crisis-military-intervention).Google Scholar
Jentleson, Bruce W. 1992. “The Pretty Prudent Public: Post Post-Vietnam American Opinion on the Use of Military Force.” International Studies Quarterly 36(1): 49–74.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jentleson, Bruce W. and Britton, Rebecca L.. 1998. “Still Pretty Prudent: Post-Cold War American Public Opinion on the Use of Military Force.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 42(4): 395–417.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kagan, Donald. 1995. On the Origins of War and the Preservation of Peace. New York: Doubleday.Google Scholar
Kam, Cindy D. 2005. “Who Toes the Party Line? Cues, Values, and Individual Differences.” Political Behavior 27(2): 163–82.10.1007/s11109-005-1764-yCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kertzer, Joshua D., Brooks, Stephen G., and Brooks, Deborah Jordan. 2017. “Do Partisan Types Stop at the Water’s Edge?” Unpublished manuscript. Retrieved July 10, 2018 (http://www.people.fas.harvard.edu/∼jkertzer/Research_files/Against_Type_Web.pdf).Google Scholar
Kertzer, Joshua D. and Brutger, Ryan. 2016. “Decomposing Audience Costs: Bringing the Audience Back into Audience Cost Theory.” American Journal of Political Science 60(1): 234–49.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kertzer, Joshua D. and Zeitzoff., Thomas 2017. “A Bottom‐Up Theory of Public Opinion about Foreign Policy.” American Journal of Political Science 61(3): 543–58.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Krebs, Ronald R. 2015. Narrative and the Making of US National Security. Cambridge Studies in International Relations 138. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kreps, Sarah, Albertson, Bethany, Kushner Gadarian, Shana, Baum, Matthew A., Potter, Philip B. K., Drezner, Daniel W., and Jentleson, Bruce W.. 2017. “Public Opinion and the Trump Administration’s Foreign Policy.” H-Diplo | ISSF. Retrieved March 1, 2018 (http://issforum.org/roundtables/policy/2-1-public-opinion).Google Scholar
Kriner, Douglas and Shen, Francis. 2014. “Responding to War on Capitol Hill: Battlefield Casualties, Congressional Response, and Public Support for the War in Iraq.” American Journal of Political Science 58(1): 157–74.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kupchan, Charles A. and Trubowitz, Peter L.. 2007. “Dead Center: The Demise of Liberal Internationalism in the United States.” International Security 32(2): 7–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levay, Kevin. E., Freese, Jeremy, and Druckman, James N.. 2016. “The Demographic and Political Composition of Mechanical Turk Samples.” Sage Open 6(1): 1–17.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levendusky, Matthew S. and Horowitz, Michael C.. 2012. “When Backing Down Is the Right Decision: Partisanship, New Information, and Audience Costs.” Journal of Politics 74(2): 323–38.10.1017/S002238161100154XCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levitsky, Steven and Ziblatt, Daniel. 2018. How Democracies Die. New York: Penguin Random House.Google Scholar
Levy, Jack S., McKoy, Michael K., Poast, Paul ,and Wallace, Geoffrey P. R.. 2015. “Backing Out or Backing In? Commitment and Consistency in Audience Costs Theory.” American Journal of Political Science 59(4): 988–1001.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lipson, Charles. 2003. Reliable Partners: How Democracies Have Made a Separate Peace. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Lupton, Danielle L. 2018. “Signaling Resolve: Leaders, Reputations, and the Importance of Early Interactions.” International Interactions 44(1): 59–87.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McManus, Roseanne W. 2017. “The Impact of Context on the Ability of Leaders to Signal Resolve.” International Interactions 43(3): 453–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
MacWilliams, Matthew C. 2016. “Who Decides When the Party Doesn’t? Authoritarian Voters and the Rise of Donald Trump.” PS: Political Science & Politics 49(4): 716–21.Google Scholar
Malhotra, Neil and Kuo, Alexander G.. 2008. “Attributing Blame: The Public’s Response to Hurricane Katrina.” Journal of Politics 70(1): 120–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Milner, Helen V. and Tingley, Dustin. 2016. Sailing the Water’s Edge: The Domestic Politics of American Foreign Policy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Morse, Julia C. 2016. “Do ‘Red Lines’ Produce Audience Costs? Results from a Survey Experiment on US Policy Toward Syria.” Presented at the Midwest Political Science Association Conference, Chicago, April 16–19 (https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/jcmorse/files/syria_spring2016.pdf).Google Scholar
Mueller, John E. 1971. “Trends in Popular Support for the Wars in Korea and Vietnam.” American Political Science Review 65(2): 358–75.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nexon, Dan, 2018. “Normalizing Trump.” Lawyers, Guns, & Money Blog. Retrieved May 10, 2018 (http://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2018/04/normalizing-trump).Google Scholar
Nicholson, Stephan P. 2012. “Polarizing Cues.” American Journal of Political Science 56(1): 52–66.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Oliver, J. Eric and Rahn, Wendy M.. 2016. “Rise of the Trumpenvolk: Populism in the 2016 Election.” Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 667(1): 189–206.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ortiz, Erik. 2017. “Trump Reverses Policy on Syrian Airstrikes after Years of Tweeting Disapproval.” NBC News. Retrieved July 23, 2018 (https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-reverses-policy-syrian-airstrikes-after-years-tweeting-disapproval-n743756).Google Scholar
Partell, Peter J. and Palmer., Glenn 1999. “Audience Costs and Interstate Crises: An Empirical Assessment of Fearon’s Model of Dispute Outcomes.” International Studies Quarterly 43(2): 389–405.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Potter, Philip B. K. and Baum, Matthew A.. 2013. “Looking for Audience Costs in All the Wrong Places: Electoral Institutions, Media Access, and Democratic Constraint.” Journal of Politics 76(1): 167–81.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ramzy, Austin. 2018. “Trump Threatens Iran on Twitter Warning of Dire ‘Consequences.’” New York Times. Retrieved July 23, 2018 (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/22/world/middleeast/trump-threatens-iran-twitter.html).Google Scholar
Rathbun, Brian C., Kertzer, Joshua D., Reifler, Jason, Goren, Paul, and Scotto, Thomas J.. 2016. “Taking Foreign Policy Personally: Personal Values and Foreign Policy Attitudes.” International Studies Quarterly 60(1): 124–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rauhala, Emily. 2018. “Ending Military Exercises? Trump’s Plan for North Korea Was China’s Plan First.” Washington Post. Retrieved July 23, 2018 (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2018/06/12/ending-military-exercises-trumps-plan-for-north-korea-was-chinas-plan-first/?utm_term=.89ab0d68da9b).Google Scholar
Reiter, Dan and Stam, Allan C.. 2002. Democracies at War. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Renshon, Jonathon. Dafoe, Allen, and Huth, Paul. 2018. “Leader Influence and Reputation Formation in World Politics.” American Journal of Political Science 62(2): 325–39.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Reuters. 2017. “Trump Says NATO Not Obsolete, Reversing Campaign Stance.” Reuters. Retrieved July 23, 2018 (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-nato/trump-says-nato-not-obsolete-reversing-campaign-stance-idUSKBN17E2OK).Google Scholar
Roediger, H. L. and DeSoto, K. A.. 2014. “Forgetting the Presidents.” Science 346(6213): 1106–09.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Roese, Neal J. 1997. “Counterfactual Thinking.” Psychological Bulletin 121(1): 133–48.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Rosenau, James. N. 1961. Public Opinion and Foreign Policy: An Operational Formulation. Studies in Political Science PS35. New York: Random House.Google Scholar
Rottinghaus, Brandon and Vaughn, Justin S.. 2018. “Official Results of the 2018 Presidents and Executive Politics Presidential Greatness Survey” American Political Science Association. Retrieved July 10, 2018 (https://sps.boisestate.edu/politicalscience/files/2018/02/Greatness.pdf).Google Scholar
Saunders, Elizabeth N. 2015. “War and the Inner Circle: Democratic Elites and the Politics of Using Force.” Security Studies 24(3): 466–501.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schultz, Kenneth A. 1998. “Domestic Opposition and Signaling in International Crises. American Political Science Review 92(4): 829–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schultz, Kenneth A. 2001. “Looking for Audience Costs.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 45(1): 32–60.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schultz, Kenneth A. 2012. “Why We Needed Audience Costs and What We Need Now.” Security Studies 21(3): 369–75.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schultz, Kenneth A. 2018. “Perils of Polarization for US Foreign Policy.” Washington Quarterly 40(4): 7–28.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Slantchev, Branislav. 2006. “Politicians, the Media, and Domestic Audience Costs.” International Studies Quarterly 50(2): 445–77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Snyder, Jack, Shapiro, Robert Y., and Bloch-Elkon, Yaeli. 2009. “Free Hand Abroad, Divide and Rule at Home.” World Politics 61(1): 155–87.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stoycheff, Elizabeth and Nisbet, Eric C.. 2016. “Priming the Costs of Conflict? Russian Public Opinion about the 2014 Crimean Conflict.” International Journal of Public Opinion Research 29(4): 657–75.Google Scholar
Tang, Shiping. 2005. “Reputation, Cult of Reputation, and International Conflict.” Security Studies 14(1): 34–62.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tingley, Dustin and Walter, Barbara. 2011. “Reputation Building in International Relations: An Experimental Approach.” International Organization 65: 343–65.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tomz, Michael. 2007. “Domestic Audience Costs in International Relations: An Experimental Approach.” International Organization 61(4): 821–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tomz, Michael and Weeks, Jessica. 2013. “Public Opinion and the Democratic Peace.” American Political Science Review 107(3): 1–16.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Walt, Stephen. 2016. “10 Ways to Tell If Your President Is a Dictator.” Foreign Policy. Retrieved July 10, 2018 (https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/11/23/ten-ways-to-tell-if-your-president-is-a-dictator/).Google Scholar
Walt, Stephen. 2017. “Top 10 Signs of Creeping Authoritarianism, Revisited.” Foreign Policy. Retrieved July 10, 2018: (https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/07/27/top-10-signs-of-creeping-authoritarianism-revisited/).Google Scholar
Wolford, Scott. 2007. “The Turnover Trap: New leaders, Reputation, and International Conflict.” American Journal of Political Science 51(4): 772–88.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Yarhi-Milo, Keren. 2018. “After Credibility: American Foreign Policy in the Trump Era.” Foreign Affairs. Retrieved July 23, 2018 (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2017-12-12/after-credibility).Google Scholar
Zaller, John. 1992. The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: File

Evers et al. supplementary material

Online Appendix

Download Evers et al. supplementary material(File)
File 1.1 MB