Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-dlnhk Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-24T10:45:25.843Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The Developing World’s “New Middle Classes”: Implications for Political Research

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  07 February 2018

Frank-Borge Wietzke  and
Andy Sumner
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Rapid middle-income growth over the past decades has led to increasing public interest in the developing world’s “new middle classes”. However, these transformations have received less attention in the comparative democratization and welfare-state regime literature. In this review article, we aim to fill this gap by identifying emerging evidence and new directions for research about the social and political consequences of lower-middle income growth. We note that, while socio-cultural and political transformations traditionally associated with expanding middle classes are unlikely to materialize at current levels of socio-economic wellbeing in most developing countries, new pressures for reform may arise out of demands to better protect modest increases in private assets and from improved educational outcomes among lower-middle income groups. We also identify signs of increased distributional conflicts between economically vulnerable lower-middle income groups and more-affluent middle classes that may undermine the transition to stable democracy and more inclusive social policy systems.

Type
Reflections
Information
Perspectives on Politics , Volume 16 , Issue 1 , March 2018 , pp. 127 - 140
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2017 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Acemoglu, Daron and Robinson, James A.. 2006. Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
African Development Bank (AfDB). 2011. “The Middle of the Pyramid: Dynamics of the Middle Class in Africa.” Market Brief, April 20.Google Scholar
Ali, Shimelse and Dadush, Uri. 2012. “The Global Middle Class Is Bigger Than We Thought.” Foreign Policy, May 16.Google Scholar
Amoranto, Glenita, Chun, Natalie, and Deolalikar, Anil. 2010. “Who Are the Middle Classes and What Values Do They Hold?” Economics Working Paper Series No 229, Mandaluyong City: Asian Development Bank.Google Scholar
Ansell, Ben and Samuels, David. 2010. “Inequality and Democratization: A Contractarian Approach.” Comparative Political Studies 43(12): 1543–74.Google Scholar
Ansell, Ben and Samuels, David. 2011. “Inequality and Democratization: Individual-Level Evidence of Preferences for Redistribution under Autocracy.” Presented at the American Political Science Association annual meeting, Seattle, September 1–4.Google Scholar
Asian Development Bank (ADB). 2010. Key Indicators. “Part I: Special Chapter on ‘The Rise of Asia’s Middle Class.’” Mandaluyong City, Philippines: Asian Development Bank.Google Scholar
Baldwin, Kate and Huber, John D.. 2010. “Economic versus Cultural Differences: Forms of Ethnic Diversity and Public Goods Provision.” American Political Science Review 104(4): 644–62.Google Scholar
Banerjee, Abhijit and Duflo, Esther 2008. “What Is Middle Class about the Middle Classes around the World?” Journal of Economic Perspectives 222: 3–28.Google Scholar
Barro, Robert J. 1999. “Determinants of Democracy.” Journal of Political Economy 107(6): 158–83.Google Scholar
Benabou, Roland and Ok, Efe A.. 2001. “Social Mobility and the Demand for Redistribution: The POUM Hypothesis.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 116: 447–87.Google Scholar
Bernhard, Michael. 2016. “The Moore Thesis: What’s Left after 1989?” Democratization 23: 118–140.Google Scholar
Biekart, Kees. 2015. “The Choice of the New Latin American Middle Classes: Sharing or Self-Caring.” European Journal of Development Research, 27(2): 238–45.Google Scholar
Birdsall, Nancy. 2015. “Does the Rise of the Middle Class Lock in Good Government in the Developing World?” European Journal of Development Research 27(2): 217–29.Google Scholar
Birdsall, Nancy, Graham, Carol, and Pettinato, Stefano. 2000. “Stuck in the Tunnel: Is Globalization Muddling the Middle Class?” Brookings Institution Working Paper 14. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution.Google Scholar
Birdsall, Nancy, Lustig, Nora, and Meyer, Christian. 2013. “The Strugglers: The New Poor in Latin America?” Center for Global Development Working Paper. Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Blofield, Merike and Luna, Juan P.. 2011. “Public Opinion on Redistribution in Latin America.” In The Great Gap: Inequality and the Politics of Redistribution in Latin America, ed. Blofield, Merike. University Park: Pennsylvania State University Press.Google Scholar
Boix, Carles. 2003. Democracy and Redistribution. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Boix, Carles. 2011. “Democracy, Development and the International System.” American Political Science Review 105(4): 809–28.Google Scholar
Bourdieu, Pierre. 1984. Distinction: A Social Critique of the Judgement of Taste. London: Routledge.Google Scholar
Bowles, Samuel, Gintis, Herbert, and Groves, Melissa Osborne. 2005. Unequal Chances: Family Background and Economic Success. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press Google Scholar
Burbidge, Dominic. 2014. “‘Can Someone Get Me Outta This Middle Class Zone?!’ Pressures on Middle Class Kikuyu in Kenya’s 2013 Election.” Journal of Modern African Studies 52: 205–25.Google Scholar
Castellani, Francesca and Parent, Gwenn. 2011. Being “Middle-Class” in Latin America, OECD Development Centre Working Papers, No. 305. Paris: OECD.Google Scholar
Cheeseman, Nick. 2015. “No Bourgeoisie, No Democracy? The Political Attitudes of the Kenyan Middle Class.” Journal of International Development 27: 647–64.Google Scholar
Chen, Feng. 2000. “Subsistence Crises, Managerial Corruption and Labour Protests in China.” China Journal 44: 41–63.Google Scholar
Chun, Natalie. 2010. Middle Class Size in the Past, Present, and Future: A Description of Trends in Asia. ADB Economics Working Paper Series 217, Asian Development Bank.Google Scholar
Cobham, Alex and Sumner, Andy. 2013. “Putting the Gini Back in the Bottle.” Unpublished manuscript. King’s College London.Google Scholar
Collier, David and Collier, Ruth Berins. 2002. Shaping the Political Arena Critical Junctures, the Labor Movement, and Regime Dynamics in Latin America. Notre Dame, IN: University of Notre Dame.Google Scholar
Collier, Ruth Berins. 1999. Paths toward Democracy: Working Class and Elites in Western Europe and South America. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Cook, Sarah and Kwon, Huck-Ju. 2007. “Social Protection in East Asia.” Global Social Policy 7(2): 223–29.Google Scholar
Coppedge, Michael, Gerring, John, Lindberg, Staffan I., et al. 2017. V-Dem Codebook v7.1. Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) Project, University of Gothenburg.Google Scholar
Cramer, Brian D. and Kaufman, Robert R.. 2011. “Views of Economic Inequality in Latin America.” Comparative Political Studies, 44(9): 1206–37.Google Scholar
de Ferranti, David, Perry, Guillermo E., Ferreira, Francisco G. G., and Walton, Michael. 2004. Inequality in Latin America: Breaking with History? Washington, DC: The World Bank.Google Scholar
De La O, Ana L. 2013. “Do Conditional Cash Transfers Affect Electoral Behavior? Evidence from A Randomized Experiment in Mexico.” American Journal of Political Science 57(1): 1–14.Google Scholar
Deaton, Angus. 1997. The Analysis of Household Surveys: AMicroeconometric Approach to Development Policy. Washington, DC The World Bank.Google Scholar
Desai, Raj M. 2015. “Social Protection and the End of Extreme Poverty.” In The Last Mile in Ending Extreme Poverty, ed. Chandy, Laurence, Kato, Hiroshi, and Kharas, Homi. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution.Google Scholar
Díaz-Cayeros, Alberto and Magaloni, Beatriz. 2009. “Aiding Latin America’s Poor.” Journal of Democracy 20(4): 36–49.Google Scholar
Dion, Michelle L. and Birchfield, Vicky. 2010. “Economic Development, Income Inequality, and Preferences for Redistribution.” International Studies Quarterly 54: 315–34.Google Scholar
Easterlin, Richard A. 1974. “Does Economic Growth Improve the Human Lot? Some Empirical Evidence.” In Nations and Households in Economic Growth: Essays in Honor of Moses Abramowitz, ed. David, Paul A. and Reder, Melvin. W.. New York: Academic Press, Inc.Google Scholar
Easterly, William. 2001. “The Middle Class Consensus and Economic Development.” Journal of Economic Growth 6: 317–35.Google Scholar
The Economist . “The New Class War.” July 9. Available at https://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21701653-chinas-middle-class-larger-richer-and-more-vocal-ever-threatens; accessed June 21, 2017.Google Scholar
Edward, Peter and Sumner, Andy. 2014. “Estimating the Scale and Geography of Global Poverty Now and in the Future: How Much Difference Do Method and Assumptions Make?” World Development 58: 67–82.Google Scholar
Edward, Peter and Sumner, Andy. 2015. “New Estimates of Global Poverty and Inequality: How Much Difference Do Price Data Really Make?” CGD Working Paper 403. Washington, DC: Center for Global Development..Google Scholar
Ferreira, Francisco H. G., Messina, Julian, Rigolini, Jamele, Lopez-Calva, Luis-Felipe, Lugo, Maria A., and Vakis, Renos. 2013. Economic Mobility and the Rise of the Latin American Middle Class. Washington, DC: World Bank.Google Scholar
Forsyth, Tim. 2010. “Thailand’s Red Shirt Protests: Popular Movement or Dangerous Street Theatre?” Social Movement Studies (4): 461–67.Google Scholar
Frank, Robert H. 2007. Falling Behind: How Rising Inequality Harms the Middle Class. Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Genschel, Philipp and Seelkopf, Laura. 2016. “Did They Learn To Tax? Taxation Trends Outside the OECD.” Review of International Political Economy 23(2): 316–44.Google Scholar
Gerring, John, Thacker, Strom C., and Alfaro, Rodrigo. 2012. “Democracy and Human Development.” Journal of Politics 74: 1–17.Google Scholar
Goldthorpe, John H. and McKnight, Abigail. 2004. “The Economic Basis of Social Class.” CASE Paper 80. London School of Economics.Google Scholar
Graham, Carol and Pettinato, Stefano. 2002. Happiness and Hardship: Opportunity and Insecurity in New Market Economies. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press.Google Scholar
Grusky, David B. and Kanbur, Ravi. 2006. “Introduction: The Conceptual Foundations of Poverty and Inequality Measurement.” In Poverty and Inequality, ed. Grusky, David B. and Kanbur, Ravi. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Guarin, Alejandro and Knorringa, Peter. 2014. “New Middle-Class Consumers in Rising Powers: Responsible Consumption and Private Standards.” Oxford Development Studies 42(2): 151–71.Google Scholar
Haggard, Stephan and Kaufman, Robert R.. 2008. Development, Democracy, and Welfare States: Latin America, East Asia, and Eastern Europ., Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Haggard and Kaufman 2012 – see n. 42Google Scholar
Haggard, Stephan, Kaufman, Robert R., and Long, James D.. 2013. “Income, Occupation, and Preferences for Redistribution in the Developing World.” Studies in Comparative International Development 48: 113–40.Google Scholar
Harttgen, Kenneth, Klasen, Stephan, and Vollmer, Sebastian. 2013. “An African Growth Miracle? Or: What do Asset Indices Tell Us about Trends in economic Performance?” Review of Income and Wealth 59 (Supplement): 37–61.Google Scholar
Hicken, Allen. 2011. “Clientelism.” Annual Review of Political Science 14: 289–310.Google Scholar
Hirschman, Albert O. 1973. “The Changing Tolerance for Income Inequality in the Course of Economic Development.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 87: 544–66.Google Scholar
Houle, Christian. 2009. “Inequality and Democracy: Why Inequality Harms Consolidation but Does Not Affect Democratization.” World Politics 61(4): 589–622.Google Scholar
Huber, Evelyne. 2009. “Politics and Inequality in Latin America.” Political Science and Politics 42(4): 651–655.Google Scholar
Huber, Evelyne, Mustillo, Thomas, and Stephens, John D.. 2008. “Politics and Social Spending in Latin America.” Journal of Politics.” 70(2): 420–36.Google Scholar
Huber, Evelyne and Stephens, John D.. 2012. Democracy and the Left. Chicago: Chicago University Press.Google Scholar
Ianchovichina, Elena, Mottaghi, Lili, and Devarajan, Shantayanan. 2015. Inequality, Uprisings, and Conflict in the Arab World. Washington, DC: The World Bank.Google Scholar
Inglehart, Ronald and Welzel, Christian. 2009. “How Development Leads to Democracy: What We Know about Modernization.” Foreign Affairs 88(2): 33–48.Google Scholar
International Labor Organization (ILO) 2015. “World Employment Social Outlook Trends.” Geneva, Switzerland.Google Scholar
Johnson, John J. 1958. Political Change in Latin America: The Emergence of the Middle Sectors. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Kaufman, Robert R. 2009a. “The Political Effects of Inequality in Latin America: Some Inconvenient Facts.” Comparative Politics 41(3): 359–79.Google Scholar
Kaufman, Robert R. 2009b. “Inequality and Redistribution: Some Continuing Puzzles.” Political Science and Politics 42(2): 657–60.Google Scholar
Kaufmann, Daniel, Kraay, Aart, and Mastruzzi, Massimo. 2011. “The Worldwide Governance Indicators: Methodology and Analytical Issues.” Hague Journal on the Rule Law 3: 220–46.Google Scholar
Kharas, Homi. 2010. “The Emerging Middle Class in Developing Countries.” OECD Development Center Working Paper 285. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution.Google Scholar
Kharas, Homi. 2017. “The Unprecedented Expansion of the Global Middle Class: An Update.” Global Economy and Development Working Paper 100. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution.Google Scholar
Kharas, Homi and Gertz, Geoffrey. 2010. “The New Global Middle Class: A Cross-Over from West to East.” Wolfensohn Center for Development. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution.Google Scholar
Kitschelt, Herbert and Wilkinson, Steven I.. (eds.) 2007. Patrons, Clients, and Policies. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Kochhar, Rakesh. 2015. A Global Middle Class Is More Promise than Reality: From 2001 to 2011, Nearly 700 Million Step Out of Poverty, But Most Only Barely. Washington, DC: Pew Research Center.Google Scholar
Krishna, Anirudh, ed. 2008. Poverty, Participation, and Democracy: A Global Perspective. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Landes, David. 1998. The Wealth and Poverty of Nations. New York: Norton Google Scholar
Le Mons Walker, Kathy. 2006. “Gangster Capitalism’ and Peasant Protest in China: The Last Twenty Years.” Journal of Peasant Studies 33(1): 1–33.Google Scholar
Leventoglu, Bahar. 2013. “Social Mobility, Middle Class, and Political Transitions.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 58(5): 825–64.Google Scholar
Liechty, Mark. 2003. Suitably Modern: Making Middle Class Culture in a New Consumer Society. Oxford: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Lindert, Kathy, Skoufias, Emmanuel, and Shapiro, Joseph. 2006. “Redistributing Income to the Poor and the Rich: Public Transfers in Latin America and the Caribbean.” SP Discussion Paper No.0605, Washington, DC: World Bank.Google Scholar
Lindert, Peter. 2004. Growing Public. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Lipset, Seymour M. 1960. Political Man. The Social Bases of Politics. New York: Doubleday.Google Scholar
Loayza, Norman, Rigolini, Jamele, and Llorente, Gonzalo. 2012. “Do Middle Classes Bring About Institutional Reforms?” Economic Letters 116: 440–44.Google Scholar
López-Calva, Luis-Felipe and Ortiz-Juarez, Eduardo. 2014. “A Vulnerability Approach to the Definition of the Middle Class.” Journal of Economic Inequality 12(1): 23–47.Google Scholar
Lopez-Calva, Luis-Felipe, Rigolini, Jamele, and Torche, Florencia. 2011. “Is There Such Thing as Middle Class Values? Class Differences, Values and Political Orientations in Latin America.” Policy Research Working Paper No. 5874, Washington, DC: World Bank.Google Scholar
Lora, Eduardo A. and Fajardo, Johanna. 2011. “Latin American Middle Classes: The Distance between Perception and Reality.” IDB Working Paper No. 275. Washington, DC: Inter-American Development Bank.Google Scholar
Mattes, Robert. 2015. “South Africa’s Emerging Black Middle Class: A Harbinger of Political Change?” Journal of International Development 27: 665–92.Google Scholar
McGuire, James W. 2010. Wealth, Health, and Democracy in East Asia and Latin America. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Meltzer, Allan H. and Richard, Scott F.. 1981. “A Rational Theory of the Size of Government.” Journal of Political Economy 89(5): 914–27.Google Scholar
Mercer, Claire 2014. “Middle Class Construction: Domestic Architecture, Aesthetics and Anxieties in Tanzania.” Journal of Modern African Studies 52(2): 227–50.Google Scholar
Milanovic, Branko and Yitzhaki, Shlomo. 2002. “Decomposing World Income Distribution: Does the World Have a Middle Class?” Review of Income and Wealth 482: 155–78.Google Scholar
Moore, Barrington. 1966. The Social Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy. Boston: Beacon Press.Google Scholar
Oberschall, Anthony. 2000. “Social Movements and the Transition to Democracy.” Democratization 7(3): 25–45.Google Scholar
O’Donnell, Guillermo and Schmitter, Philippe C.. 1986. Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Tentative Conclusions about Uncertain Democracies. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Ottaway, M. and Hamzawy, A.. 2011. Protest Movements and Political Change in the Arab World, Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.Google Scholar
Piketty, Thomas. 1995. “Social Mobility and Redistributive Politics.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 110(3): 551–84.Google Scholar
Ravallion, Martin. 2010. “The Developing World’s Bulging but Vulnerable ‘Middle Class.’” World Development 38(2): 445–54.Google Scholar
Ravallion, Martin. 2012. “Why Don’t We See Poverty Convergence?” American Economic Review 102(1): 504–23.Google Scholar
Ravallion, Martin and Lokshin, Michael. 2000. “Who Wants to Redistribute? The Tunnel Effect in 1990s Russia.” Journal of Public Economics 76(1): 87–104.Google Scholar
Reenock, Christopher, Bernhard, Michael, and Sobek, David. 2007. “Regressive Socioeconomic Distribution and Democratic Survival.” International Studies Quarterly (5): 677–99.Google Scholar
Resnick, Danielle. 2015a. “The Political Economy of Africa’s Emergent Middle Class: Retrospect and Prospects.” Journal of International Development 27(5): 573–87.Google Scholar
Resnick, Danielle. 2015b. “The Middle Class and Democratic Consolidation in Zambia.” Journal of International Development, 27(5): 693–715.Google Scholar
Roberts, Kenneth M. 2012. “The Politics of Inequality and Redistribution in Latin America’s Post-Adjustment Era.” Working Paper 8/2012. Helsinki: UNU-Wider.Google Scholar
Rodrik, Dani. 2016. “Premature deindustrialization.” Journal of Economic Growth 21(1): 1–33.Google Scholar
Ross, Michael. 2006. “Is Democracy Good for the Poor?” American Journal of Political Science 50(4): 860–74.Google Scholar
Rueschemeyer, Dietrich, Stephens, Evelyne, and Stephens, John D.. 1992. Capitalist Development and Democracy. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Rudra, Nita. 2002. “Globalization and the Decline of the Welfare State in Less Developed Countries.” International Organization 56(2): 411–45.Google Scholar
Rudra, Nita. 2004. “Openness, Welfare Spending, and Inequality in the Developing World.” International Studies Quarterly 48(3): 683–709.Google Scholar
Sampaio, Antonio. 2014. “Brazil’s Angry Middle Class.” Survival 56(4): 107–18.Google Scholar
So, Alvin Y. 2007. “Peasant Conflict and the Local Predatory State in the Chinese Countryside.” Journal of Peasant Studies 34(3-4): 560–81.Google Scholar
Stewart, Frances, ed. 2008. Horizontal Inequalities and Conflict: Understanding Group Violence in Multiethnic Societies. London: Palgrave.Google Scholar
Sumich, Jason. 2015. “The Uncertainty of Prosperity: Dependence and the Politics of Middle Class Privilege in Maputo.” Ethnos 1: 1–21.Google Scholar
Sumner, Andy. 2012. “Poverty, Vulnerability and Class: The Expanding Non-Polar Groups and Development.” Public Administration and Development 32(4–5): 444–54.Google Scholar
Teorell, Jan. 2010. Determinants of Democratization: Explaining Regime Change in the World, 1972–2006. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Thabchumpon, Naruemon and McCargo, Duncan. 2011. “Urbanized Villagers in the 2010 Thai Redshirt Protests.” Asian Survey 51(6): 993–1018.Google Scholar
Thurlow, James, Resnick, Danielle, and Ubogu, Dumebi. 2015. “Matching Concepts with Measurement: Who Belongs to Africa’s Middle Class?” Journal of International Development 27: 588–608.Google Scholar
Torche, Florencia and López-Calva, Luis-Felipe. 2012. “Stability and Vulnerability of the Latin American Middle Class.” Oxford Development Studies 41(4): 409–35.Google Scholar
Tschirley, David, Reardon, Thomas, Dolislager, Michael, and Snyder, Jason. 2015. “The Rise of a Middle Class in East and Southern Africa: Implications for Food System Transformation.” Journal of International Development 27: 628–46.Google Scholar
Ungpakorn, Giles J. 2009. Class Struggle between the Coloured T-Shirts in Thailand, Journal of Asia Pacific Studies 1(1): 76–100.Google Scholar
Weitz-Shapiro, Rebecca. 2012. “What Wins Votes: Why Some Politicians Opt Out of Clientelism.” American Journal of Political Science 56: 568–83.Google Scholar
Wiemann, Juergen. 2015. “Sharing Global Responsibility: The Role of the Middle Classes on the Way to a Just and Sustainable Global Economy.” European Journal of Development Research 27(2): 205–16.Google Scholar
Wietzke, Frank-Borge. 2016. “Kicking Away the Ladder? Poverty Reduction and Public Support for Redistribution in Emerging Economies.” Socio-Economic Review 14(3): 419–42. doi: 10.1093/ser/mwv027.Google Scholar
Wilson, Dominic and Dragusanu, Raluca. 2008. “The Expanding Middle: The Exploding World Middle Class and Falling Global Inequality.” Goldman Sachs Global Economics Paper No. 170. Available at http://www.ryanallis.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/expandingmiddle.pdf.Google Scholar
Wilson, William T. 2013. Hitting the Sweet Spot: The Growth of the Middle Class in Emerging Markets. London: Ernst and Young.Google Scholar
Wright, Erik O. 2005. “Foundations of A Neo-Marxist Class Analysis.” In Approaches to Class Analysis, ed. Wright, Erik O.. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Yitzhaki, Shlomo. 1982. “Relative Deprivation and Economic Welfare.” European Economic Review 17(1): 99–113.Google Scholar
Yuan, Zhang, Wan, Guanghua, and Khor, Niny. 2010. “The Rise of the Middle Class in the People’s Republic of China.” Economics Working Paper Series No. 247. Mandaluyong City: Asian Development Bank.Google Scholar