Hostname: page-component-745bb68f8f-b95js Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-02-05T17:40:12.723Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Confidence intervals for pulsed mass extinction events

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 July 2015

Steve C. Wang  and
Philip J. Everson
Steve C. Wang
Affiliation:
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Swarthmore College, Swarthmore, Pennsylvania 19081. E-mail: [email protected]
Philip J. Everson
Affiliation:
Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Swarthmore College, Swarthmore, Pennsylvania 19081. E-mail: [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Many authors have proposed scenarios for mass extinctions that consist of multiple pulses or stages, but little work has been done on accounting for the Signor-Lipps effect in such extinction scenarios. Here we introduce a method for computing confidence intervals for the time or stratigraphic distance separating two extinction pulses in a pulsed extinction event, taking into account the incompleteness of the fossil record. We base our method on a flexible likelihood ratio test framework that is able to test whether the fossil record is consistent with any extinction scenario, whether simultaneous, pulsed, or otherwise. As an illustration, we apply our method to a data set on marine invertebrates from the Permo-Triassic boundary of Meishan, China. Using this data set, we show that the fossil record of ostracodes and that of brachiopods are each consistent with simultaneous extinction, and that these two extinction pulses are separated by 720,000 to 1.2 million years with 95% confidence. With appropriate data, our method could also be applied in other situations, such as tests of origination patterns, coordinated stasis, and recovery after a mass extinction.

Type
Articles
Information
Paleobiology , Volume 33 , Issue 2 , Spring 2007 , pp. 324 - 336
Copyright
Copyright © The Paleontological Society 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Literature Cited

Alvarez, L. W., Alvarez, W., Asaro, F., and Michel, H. V. 1980. Extraterrestrial cause for the Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction. Science 208:1095–1108.Google Scholar
Brett, C. E., and Baird, G. C. 1995. Coordinated stasis and evolutionary ecology of Silurian to Middle Devonian faunas in the Appalachian basin. Pp. 285–314 in Erwin, D. H. and Anstey, R. L., eds. New approaches to studying speciation in the fossil record. Columbia University Press, New York.Google Scholar
Casella, G., and Berger, R. L. 2002. Statistical inference, 2d ed. Duxbury, Pacific Grove, Calif. Google Scholar
Foote, M. 1997. Estimating taxonomic durations and preservation probability. Paleobiology 23:278–300.Google Scholar
Holland, S. M. 2003. Confidence limits on fossil ranges that account for facies changes. Paleobiology 29:468–479.Google Scholar
Huelsenbeck, J. P., and Rannala, B. 1997. Maximum likelihood estimation of phylogeny using stratigraphic data. Paleobiology 23:174–180.Google Scholar
Isozaki, Y. 2002. End-Permian double-phased mass extinction and killer volcanism. Geological Society of America Abstracts with Programs 34:360.Google Scholar
Jin, Y. G., Wang, Y., Wang, W., Shang, Q. H., Cao, C. Q., and Erwin, D. H. 2000. Pattern of marine mass extinction near the Permian-Triassic boundary in South China. Science 289:432–436.Google Scholar
Keller, G., Stinnesbeck, W., Adatte, T., and Stüben, D. 2003. Multiple impacts across the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary. Earth-Science Reviews 62:327–363.Google Scholar
Knoll, A. H., Bambach, R. K., Canfield, D. E., and Grotzinger, J. P. 1996. Comparative Earth history and late Permian mass extinction. Science 273:452–457.Google Scholar
Macellari, C. E. 1986. Late Campanian-Maastrichtian ammonite fauna from Seymour Island (Antarctic Peninsula). Journal of Paleontology 60(Suppl.).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Marshall, C. R. 1995. Distinguishing between sudden and gradual extinctions in the fossil record: predicting the position of the Cretaceous-Tertiary iridium anomaly using the ammonite fossil record on Seymour Island, Antarctica. Geology 23:731–734.Google Scholar
Marshall, C. R., and Ward, P. D. 1996. Sudden and gradual molluscan extinctions in the latest Cretaceous in western European Tethys. Science 274:1360–1363.Google Scholar
McConway, K. J., and Sims, H. J. 2004. A likelihood-based method for testing for nonstochastic variation of diversification rates in phylogenies. Evolution 58:12–13.Google Scholar
McGhee, G. R. Jr. 2001. The ‘multiple impacts hypothesis’ for mass extinction: a comparison of the Late Devonian and the Eocene. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 176:47–58.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Paul, C. R. C., Lamolda, M. A., Mitchell, S. F., Vaziri, M. R., Gorostidi, A., and Marshall, J. D. 1999. The Cenomanian–Turonian boundary at Eastbourne (Sussex, UK): a proposed European reference section. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 150:83–121.Google Scholar
Payne, J. L., Lehrmann, D. J., Wei, J., and Knoll, A. H. 2006. The pattern and timing of biotic recovery from the end-Permian extinction on the Great Bank of Guizhou, Guizhou Province, China. Palaios 21:63–85.Google Scholar
Sadler, P. M. 2004. Quantitative biostratigraphy—achieving finer resolution in global correlation. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 32:187–213.Google Scholar
Sadler, P. M., and Cooper, R. A. 2003. Best-fit intervals and consensus sequences. Pp. 49–94 in Harries, P. J., ed. Approaches in high-resolution stratigraphic paleontology. Kluwer Academic, Dordrecht.Google Scholar
Signor, P. W., and Lipps, J. H. 1982. Sampling bias, gradual extinction patterns, and catastrophes in the fossil record. In Silver, L. T. and Schultz, P. H., eds. Geological implications of large asteroids and comets on the Earth. Geological Society of America Special Paper 190:291–296.Google Scholar
Solow, A. R. 1996. Tests and confidence intervals for a common upper endpoint in fossil taxa. Paleobiology 22:406–410.Google Scholar
Solow, A. R., and Smith, W. K. 1997. On fossil preservation and the stratigraphic ranges of taxa. Paleobiology 23:271–277.Google Scholar
Solow, A. R., and Smith, W. K. 2000. Testing for a mass extinction without selecting taxa. Paleobiology 26:647–650.2.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Springer, M. S. 1990. The effect of random range truncations on patterns of evolution in the fossil record. Paleobiology 16:512–520.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stanley, S. M., and Yang, X. 1994. A double mass extinction at the end of the Paleozoic Era. Science 266:1340–1344.Google Scholar
Strauss, D., and Sadler, P. M. 1989. Classical confidence intervals and Bayesian probability estimates for ends of local taxon ranges. Mathematical Geology 21:411–427.Google Scholar
Twitchett, R. J., Looy, C. V., Morante, R., Visscher, H., and Wignall, P. B. 2001. Rapid and synchronous collapse of marine and terrestrial ecosystems during the end-Permian biotic crisis. Geology 29:351–354.Google Scholar
Wagner, P. J. 2000. Likelihood tests of hypothesized durations: determining and accommodating biasing factors. Paleobiology 26:431–449.Google Scholar
Wang, S. C., and Marshall, C. R. 2004. Improved confidence intervals for estimating the position of a mass extinction boundary. Paleobiology 30:5–18.Google Scholar
Ward, P. D., Botha, J., Buick, R., de Kock, M. O., Erwin, D. H., Garrison, G. H., Kirschvink, J. L., and Smith, R. 2005. Abrupt and gradual extinction among Late Permian land vertebrates in the Karoo Basin, South Africa. Science 307:709–713.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Wilf, P., and Johnson, K. R. 2004. Land plant extinction at the end of the Cretaceous: a quantitative analysis of the North Dakota megafloral record. Paleobiology 30:347–368.Google Scholar
Xie, S., Pancost, R. D., Yin, H., Wang, H., and Evershed, R. P. 2005. Two episodes of microbial change coupled with Permo/Triassic faunal mass extinction. Nature 434:494–497.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed