Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-mkpzs Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-25T05:21:50.507Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Solar activity and its influence on climate

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 April 2016

C. de Jager
C. de Jager*
Affiliation:
Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, P.O. Box 59, 1790 AB Texel, the Netherlands. Email:[email protected]

Abstract

Core share and HTML view are not available for this content. However, as you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

Solar activity, as manifested by its many equatorial as well as high-latitude components of short-term variability is regulated by the Sun’s dynamo. This constitutes an intricate interplay between the solar toroidal and poloidal magnetic field components. The dynamo originates in the tachocline, which is a thin layer situated about 200,000 km beneath the solar surface. The dynamo is a non-linear system with deterministic chaotic elements, hence in principle unpredictable. Yet there are regularities in the past behaviour, such as the Grand Maxima (example: the recent high maximum of the 2nd half of the 20th century) the Grand Minima (e.g. the Maunder Minimum between 1650 and 1710) and the Regular Oscillations such as those between 1730 and 1923. Their occurrences are described by a phase diagram in which a specific point can be identified: the Transition Point. This diagram plays an essential role in determining the future solar activity. Guided by its quasi-regularities and by recent measurements of the solar magnetic fields we find that the Sun is presently undergoing a transition between the past Grand Maximum and a forthcoming period of Regular Oscillations. We forecast that this latter period will start in a few years and will continue for at least one Gleissberg cycle and that the next solar maximum (expected for 2014) will be low (Rmax ~ 68).

We discuss the heliospheric drivers of Sun-climate interaction and find that the low-latitude magnetic regions contribute most to tropospheric temperatures but that also the influence of the - so far always neglected - polar activity is significant. Subtraction of these components from the observed temperatures of the past 400 years shows a residual series of relative peaks and dips in the temperature. These tops and lows last for periods of the order of the Gleissberg cycle. One of these is the recent period of global warming, which, from this point of view, is not an exceptional period.

Type
Research Article
Information
Netherlands Journal of Geosciences , Volume 87 , Issue 3 , September 2008 , pp. 207 - 213
Copyright
Copyright © Stichting Netherlands Journal of Geosciences 2008

References

Akasofu, S.I. & Frey, C.D., 1986. Heliospheric current sheet and its solar cycle variation. Journal of Geophysical Research, 91: 13679–13688.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brun, A.S., 2004. On the interaction between differential rotation and magnetic fields in the sun, Solar Physics, 220: 333–345 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clilverd, M.A., Clarke, C., Risbeth, H., Clark, T.D.G. & Ulich, T., 2003. Solar cycle: solar activity levels in 2100, Astronomy and Geophysics, 44, 5.20–5.21 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
De Jager, C., 1983. Development of the flare morphology in X-rays and the flare scenario, Solar Physics, 86: 21–30.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
De Jager, C. Knijpers, J., Correla, E. & Kaufmann, P., 1987. A high-energy flare burst and the physical properties of its source region. Solar Physics, 110: 357–326.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
De Jager, C. 2005. Solar forcing of climate; 1. Solar variability. Space Science Reviews, 120: 197–241.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
De Jager, C. & Usoskin, L.G., 2006. On possible drivers of sun-induced climate change. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 68: 2053 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
De Jager, C. & Duhau, S., 2008, Forecasting the parameters of sunspot cycle 24 and beyond. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, submittedGoogle Scholar
Dikpati, M., De Toma, G. and Gilman, P.A., Arge, C.N. & Withe, O.R., 2004. Diagnosis of solar cycle 23 using a flux-transport dynamo model. Astrophysical Journal, 601: 1136.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Duhau, S., 2003. An early prediction of sunspot cycle maximum 24. Solar Physics, 213: 203.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Duhau, S. & Chen, C.Y., 2002. The sudden increase of solar and geomagnetic activity after 1923 as a manifestation of a non-linear solar dynamo, Geophysical Research Letters, 29, (13): 6-1.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Duhau, S. & De Jager, C., 2008. The solar dynamo and its phase transitions during the last Millennium, Solar Physics, 250: 1–15.Google Scholar
Erofeev, D.V. & Erofeeva, A.V., 2000. On the relationship between polar faculae and large-scale magnetic field, Solar Phys. 191: 281.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Feynmann, J. & Gabriel, S.B., 1990. Period and phase of the 88-year solar cycle and the Maunder minimum - Evidence for a chaotic sun, Solar Phys. 127: 393–403.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Harvey, K.L. & Martin, S.F., 1973. Ephemeral active regions, Solar Physics 35: 389–402.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hundhausen, A., 1999. Coronal Mass Ejections. In: Strong, K.T., Saba, J.R.L., Haisch, B.M. & Schmelz, J.T. (eds): ‘The many phases of the Sun’, Springer (New York): pp. 143–200.Google Scholar
Lockwood, M., Stamper, R. & Wild, M.N., 1999. A doubling of the Sun’s coronal magnetic field during the past 100 years, Nature, 399: 437–439.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Moberg, A., Sonechkin, D.M., Holmgren, K., Datsenko, N.M. & Karlen, M., 2005. Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data, Nature, 433: 613–617.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Muscheler, R., Beer, J. & Kromer, B., 2003. Long-term climate variations and solar effects. In: Wu, S.T., Obridko, V., Schmieder, B. & Sykora, J. (eds): ‘SCS Symposium, 2003’, ESTEC, Noordwijk: 305–316.Google Scholar
Nandy, D., 2004. Exploring magnetic activity from the Sun to the stars, Solar Physics, 224: 161–169.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ogurtsov, M.G., Nagovitsyn, J.A., Kocharov, G.E. & Jungner, H., 2002. Long-period cycles of the Sun’s activity recorded in direct solar data and proxies, Solar Physics, 211: 371–394.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ostriakov, V.M. & Usoskin, I.G., 1990. On the dimension of the solar attractor, Solar Physics, 127: 405–412.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Richardson, J.G., 2004. Energetic particles and corotating interaction regions in the solar wind, Space Science Reviews, 111: 267–376.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sakai, J.I. & De Jager, C., 1996. Solar flares and collisions between current-carrying loops, Space Science Reviews, 77: 1–192.Google Scholar
Shrivastava, P.K. & Jaiswal, K.L., 2003. High-speed solar wind streams and cosmic-ray intensity variations during 1991–1996, Solar Physics, 214:195–200.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Spiegel, E.A. & Weiss, N.O., 1980. Magnetic activity and variations in solar luminosity, Nature 287: 616–619.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stoykova, D.A., Shopov, Y.Y., Garbeva, D., Tsankov, L.T. & Yonge, C.J., 2008. Origin of the climatic changes from orbital to sub-annual scales, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar Terrestrial Physics, 70: 293–302 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tobias, S., Hughes, D. & Weiss, N., 2006, Unpredictable sun leaves researchers in the dark, Nature, 442: 26.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Weiss, N.O., 2002. Presidential Address, Dynamos in planets, stars and galaxies, Astronomy and Geophysics, 43: 3.9–3.13.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weiss, N.O. & Tobias, S.M., 2000. Physical causes of solar activity, Space Science Reviews, 94: 99–112.CrossRefGoogle Scholar