Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-gbm5v Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-24T06:16:56.206Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

From “frozen conflict” to enduring rivalry: reassessing the Nagorny Karabakh conflict

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 November 2018

Laurence Broers
Laurence Broers*
Affiliation:
Centre for the Contemporary Central Asia and Caucasus, School of Oriental and African Studies, London, UK
*
* Email: [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

This article draws on international relations theory to attempt a reframing of the Armenian–Azerbaijani conflict in Nagorny Karabakh as an enduring rivalry (ER): a particular kind of interstate conflict known for its longevity and stability. The article begins by identifying a number of conceptual deficits circulating around this conflict, notably the notion that it is a “frozen conflict,” before introducing the ER framework and its analytical dividends for this case. Different layers of the ER between Armenia and Azerbaijan are then explored at systemic, interstate, domestic, decision-maker, and temporal levels, with a view more toward identifying directions for future research than conclusive findings. Among the article's tentative conclusions are the primacy of endogenous over exogenous factors in explaining the durability of the rivalry between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the impacts of the passage of time on the human and physical geography of the territory under dispute, and the convergence of conflict dynamics across disparate levels.

Keywords

territorial conflictenduring rivalryArmeniaAzerbaijanKarabakh
Type
Articles
Information
Nationalities Papers , Volume 43 , Issue 4 , July 2015 , pp. 556 - 576
Copyright
Copyright © 2015 Association for the Study of Nationalities 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Alieva, Leila, ed. 2013. The Soviet Legacy 22 Years on: Reversed or Reinforced? Baku: Qanun.Google Scholar
ArmeniaNow. 2013. “Maine Becomes Third U. S. State to Recognize NKR's Independence.” www.armenianow.com/karabakh/45228/armenia_karabakh_united_states_maine_recognition.Google Scholar
Asbarez. 2013. “Louisiana State Senate Recognizes Karabakh Independence.” http://asbarez.com/110347/louisiana-state-senate-recognizes-karabakh-independence/.Google Scholar
Aslanov, Bakhtiyar. 2013. “Azerbaijan and Armenia Stockpile New Weapons.” Central Asia and Caucasus Analyst, October 30. www.cacianalyst.org/publications/field-reports/item/12841-azerbaijan-and-armenia-stockpile-new-weapons.html.Google Scholar
Asmus, Ronald. 2010. A Little War that Shook the World: Georgia, Russia, and the Future of the West. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.Google Scholar
Bennet, D. Scott. 1997. “Measuring Rivalry Termination 1816–1992.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 41 (2): 227–254.Google Scholar
Bolukbasi, Suha. 2011. Azerbaijan. A Political History. London: I. B. Tauris.Google Scholar
Bremer, Stuart. 1992. “Dangerous Dyads: Conditions Affecting the Likelihood of Interstate War, 1816–1965.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 36 (2): 309–341.Google Scholar
Broers, Laurence. 2014. “Nagorno-Karabakh's Summer of Violence.” Feature Report. World Politics Review.Google Scholar
Broers, Laurence and Toal, Gerard. 2013. “Cartographic Exhibitionism? Visualizing the Territory of Armenian and Karabakh.” Problems of Post-Communism 60 (3): 16–35.Google Scholar
Knot, Caucasian. 2014. “In 2014 Azerbaijan Already has Fourth Suicide Committed by Soldier.” Accessed January 16, 2014. http://eng.kavkaz-uzel.ru/articles/26947/.Google Scholar
Cheterian, Vicken. 2008. War and Peace in the Caucasus. Russia's Troubled Frontier. London: Hurst.Google Scholar
Conciliation Resources. 2005. The Limits of Leadership: Elites and Societies in the Nagorny Karabakh Peace Process. Accord 17. London: Conciliation Resources.Google Scholar
Conciliation Resources. 2011a. Forced Displacement in the Nagorny Karabakh Conflict: Return and its Alternatives. London: Conciliation Resources.Google Scholar
Conciliation Resources. 2011b. Individual Rights, Societal Choices: Confronting Legacies of Displacement in the Nagorny Karabakh Conflict. London: Conciliation Resources.Google Scholar
Conciliation Resources. 2012. Beyond Exclusion: Rethinking Approaches to Status in the Nagorny Karabakh Peace Process. London: Conciliation Resources.Google Scholar
Cornell, Svante. 2001. Small Nations and Great Powers. A Study of Ethnopolitical Conflict in the Caucasus. Richmond: Curzon.Google Scholar
Croissant, Michael, P. 1998. The Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict. Causes and Implications. Westport: Praeger.Google Scholar
Deriglazova, Larisa and Minasyan, Sergey. 2011. Nagorno-Karabakh: The Paradoxes of Strength and Weakness in an Asymmetric Conflict. Yerevan: Caucasus Institute.Google Scholar
Diehl, Paul, F., ed. 1998. The Dynamics of Enduring Rivalries. Champaign: University of Illinois Press.Google Scholar
Diehl, Paul F., and Goertz, Gary. 2000. War and Peace in International Rivalry. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Federal Foreign Office. 2009. Conflict in Post-Soviet Europe. The South Caucasus: Are there Scenarios for Resolution? The 2009 Berlin Roundtable on Diplomacy. Berlin: Auswärtiges Amt.Google Scholar
Freizer, Sabine. 2014. “Twenty Years after the Nagorny Karabakh Ceasefire: An Opportunity to Move towards More Inclusive Conflict Resolution.” Caucasus Survey 1 (2): 109–122.Google Scholar
Giragosian, Richard. 2013. Cause for Concern: The Shifting Balance of Power in the South Caucasus. Yerevan: Regional Studies Center.Google Scholar
Giragosian, Richard. 2014a. Nagorno Karabakh. Situational Assessment. Yerevan: Regional Studies Center.Google Scholar
Giragosian, Richard. 2014b. Nagorno Karabakh. Situational Assessment. Yerevan: Regional Studies Center.Google Scholar
Goertz, Gary and Diehl, Paul. 1993. “Enduring Rivalries: Theoretical Constructs and Empirical Patterns.” International Studies Quarterly 37 (2): 147–171.Google Scholar
Goertz, Gary, Jones, Bradford, and Diehl, Paul F. 2005. “Maintenance Processes in International Rivalries.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 49 (5): 742–769.Google Scholar
Grigoryan, Armen. 2014. “Armenia: Joining Under the Gun.” In Putin's Grand Strategy: The Eurasian Union and its Discontents, edited by Frederick Starr, S. and Cornell, Svante E., 98–109. Washington, DC: Central Asia and Caucasus Institute.Google Scholar
Gureyeva-Alieva, Yulia and Huseynov, Tabib. 2011. Can You Be an IDP for 20 Years?” A Comparative Field Study on the Protection Needs and Attitudes towards Displacement among IDPs and Host Communities in Azerbaijan. Baku: Brookings Institute/London School of Economics Project on Internal Displacement.Google Scholar
Hakobyan, Tatul. 2010. Karabakh Diary: Green and Black. Antelias.Google Scholar
Hassner, Ron E. 2006–2007. “The Path to Intractability: Time and the Entrenchment of Territorial Disputes.” International Security 31 (3): 107–138.Google Scholar
Hensel, Paul R. 1999. “An Evolutionary Approach to the Study of Interstate Rivalry.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 17 (12): 175–206.Google Scholar
Holtom, Paul. 2012. “Arms Transfers to Armenia and Azerbaijan, 2007–11.” In Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Yearbook 2012, Armaments, Disarmament and International Security, edited by International Peace Research Institute Stockholm, 286–292. Oxford: Oxford University Press on behalf of Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.Google Scholar
HRW (Human Rights Watch). 2012–2014. “World Report.” www.hrw.org/publications.Google Scholar
Huseynov, Tabib. 2010. “Mountainous Karabakh: New Paradigms for Peace and Development in the 21st Century.” International Negotiation 15: 7–31.Google Scholar
Huseynov, Tabib. 2011. “Return and Its Alternatives: A Case Study on the Armenian-Azerbaijani Conflict.” In Forced Displacement in the Nagorny Karabakh Conflict: Return and its Alternatives, edited by Resources, Conciliation, 33–46. London: Conciliation Resources.Google Scholar
Huth, Paul K. 1998. Standing Your Ground. Territorial Disputes and International Conflict. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
International Alert. 2013. Advancing the Prospects for Peace: 20 years of Peacebuilding in the Context of the Nagorny Karabakh Conflict. London: International Alert.Google Scholar
International Crisis Group. 2007. “Nagorno-Karabakh: Risking War.” Europe Report No. 187.Google Scholar
International Crisis Group. 2011. “Armenia and Azerbaijan: Preventing War.” Europe Briefing No. 60.Google Scholar
International Crisis Group. 2013. “Armenia and Azerbaijan: A Season of Risks.” Europe Briefing No. 71.Google Scholar
IWPR (Institute for War and Peace Reporting). 2011. “Armenian Army Non-Combat Deaths Probed.” http://iwpr.net/report-news/armenian-army-non-combat-deaths-probed.Google Scholar
Kameck, Michael and Ghazaryan, Sargis, eds. 2013. Europe's Next Avoidable War: Nagorno-Karabakh. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.Google Scholar
Kazimirov, V. N. 2009. Mir Karabakhu. Moscow: Mezhdunarodnye Otnoshcheniia.Google Scholar
Kucera, Joshua. 2013. “Azerbaijan Looking for Weapons in South Korea?” Eurasianet, August 27. www.eurasianet.org/node/67438 Google Scholar
Leng, Russell J. 1983. “When Will they Ever Learn? Coercive Bargaining in Recurrent Crises.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 27 (3): 379–419.Google Scholar
Leng, Russell J. 2000. Bargaining and Learning in Recurring Crises. The Soviet-American, Egyptian-Israeli and Indo-Pakistan Rivalries. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Leng, Russell J. 2005. “Realpolitik and Learning in the India-Pakistan Rivalry.” In The India-Pakistan Conflict. An Enduring Rivalry, edited by Paul, T. V., 103–127. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
LINKS (London Information Network on Conflicts and State-building). 2010. Karabakh. The Big Debate. Parts 1 and 2. London: LINKS.Google Scholar
Maoz, Zeev, and Mor, Ben D. 2002. Bound by Struggle. The Strategic Evolution of Enduring International Rivalries. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Maresca, John J. 1996. “Lost Opportunities in Negotiating the Conflict over Nagorno Karabakh.” International Negotiation 1: 471–499.Google Scholar
Mesbahi, Mohiaddin. 2013. “Islam and Security Narratives in Eurasia.” Caucasus Survey 1 (1): 5–26.Google Scholar
Balance, Military. 2014. The Military Balance: The Annual Assessment of Global Military Capabilities and Defence Economics. London: International Institute for Strategic Studies.Google Scholar
Minasyan, Sergey. 2010. Nagorno-Karabakh After Two Decades of Conflict: Is Prolongation of the Status Quo Inevitable? Yerevan: Caucasus Institute.Google Scholar
Morar, Filon. 2010. “Frozen Conflicts: Transcending Illusive Dilemmas.” Per Concordiam 1 (2): 10–17.Google Scholar
Oskanian, Kevork. 2013. Fear, Weakness and Power in the Post-Soviet South Caucasus. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.Google Scholar
Oskanian, Kevork. 2014a. “Nationalism Sparks a Summer of Deadly Violence In the Caucasus.” The Conversation, August 28. http://theconversation.com/nationalism-sparks-a-summer-of-deadly-violence-in-the-caucasus-30933.Google Scholar
Oskanian, Vartan. 2014b. “Will Armenia and Azerbaijan Reach a Negotiated Settlement?” Al-Jazeera, August 10.Google Scholar
Ó Tuathail, Gearóid, and Dalby, Simon. 1998. “Introduction: Rethinking Geopolitics. Towards a Critical Geopolitics.” In Rethinking Geopolitics, edited by Tuathail, Gearóid Ó. and Dalby, Simon, 1–15. London: Routledge.Google Scholar
Özkan, Behlül. 2008. “Who Gains from the ‘No war, No Peace’ Situation? A Critical Analysis of the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict.” Geopolitics 13 (3): 572–599.Google Scholar
Panossian, Razmik. 2006. The Armenians. From Kings and Priests to Merchants and Commissars. London: Hurst.Google Scholar
Paul, T. V., ed. 2005a. The India-Pakistan Conflict: An Enduring Rivalry. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Paul, T. V., ed. 2005b. “Causes of the India-Pakistan Enduring Rivalry.” In The India-Pakistan Conflict: An Enduring Rivalry, edited by Paul, T. V., 3–24. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Paul, T. V., ed. 2006. “Why has the India-Pakistan Rivalry been So Enduring? Power Asymmetry and an Intractable Conflict.” Security Studies 15 (4): 600–630.Google Scholar
Popescu, Nicu. 2013. “Behind – and Beyond – Armenia's Choice.” European Union Institute for Security Studies.Google Scholar
Ramet, Sabrina P. 2004. “Explaining the Yugoslav Meltdown, 1. ‘For a Charm of Powerful Trouble, Like a Hell-Broth Boil and Bubble': Theories about the Roots of the Yugoslav Troubles.” Nationalities Papers 32 (4): 731–763.Google Scholar
Rasier, Karen, Thompson, William R., and Ganguly, Sumit. 2013. How Rivalries End. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press.Google Scholar
Saferworld. 2012. Putting People First. Reducing Frontline Tensions in Armenia and Azerbaijan, Nagorny Karabakh. London: Saferworld.Google Scholar
Saparov, Arsène. 2012. “Why Autonomy? The making of Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region 1918–1925.” Europe-Asia Studies 64 (2): 281–323.Google Scholar
Sheets, Lawrence Scott. 2012. “A ‘Frozen Conflict’ that Could Boil Over.” New York Times, March 8.Google Scholar
Slaq.am. 2013. “John Kerry Pledges to Help end Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict.” June 4. Accessed February 20, 2014. www.slaq.am/eng/news/136460/.Google Scholar
Souleimanov, Emil. 2013. Understanding Ethnopolitical Conflict. Karabakh, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia Wars Reconsidered. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.Google Scholar
Stinnet, Douglas M., and Diehl, Paul F. 2001. “The Path(S) to Rivalry: Behavioral and Structural Explanations of Rivalry Development.” Journal of Politics 63 (3): 717–740.Google Scholar
Tir, Jaroslav, and Diehl, Paul F. 2002. “Geographic Dimensions of Enduring Rivalries.” Political Geography 21: 263–286.Google Scholar
Tokluoglu, Ceylan. 2011. “The Political Discourse of the Azerbaijani Elite on the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict (1991–2009).” Europe-Asia Studies 63 (7): 1223–1252.Google Scholar
Tremblay, Reeta Chowdhari, and Schofield, Julian. 2005. “Institutional Causes of the India-Pakistan Rivalry.” In The India-Pakistan Conflict. An Enduring Rivalry, edited by Paul, T. V., 225–248. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Vasquez, John A. 1996. “Distinguishing Rivals that Go to War from Those That Do Not.” International Studies Quarterly 40 (4): 531–558.Google Scholar
Vasquez, John A. 2005. “The India-Pakistan Conflict in Light of General Theories of War, Rivalry, and Deterrence.” In The India-Pakistan Conflict. An Enduring Rivalry, edited by Paul, T. V., 54–79. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Vasquez, John A., and Henehan, Marie T. 2011. Territory, War, and Peace. London: Routledge.Google Scholar
de Waal, Thomas. 2013. Black Garden. Armenia and Azerbaijan through Peace and War, 2nd ed. New York: New York University Press.Google Scholar
Walker, Edward W. 1998. No Peace, No War in the Caucasus: Secessionist Conflicts in Chechnya, Abkhazia and Nagorno-Karabakh. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University John F. Kennedy School of Government.Google Scholar
Weisskopf Bleill, Laura. 2005–2006. “Enduring rivalries.” LASNews, Fall/Winter; www.las.illinois.edu/alumni/magazine/articles/2005/enduringrivalries/.Google Scholar
Wolff, Stefan, and Peen Rodt, Annemarie. 2013. “Self-Determination after Kosovo.” Europe-Asia Studies 65 (5): 799–822.Google Scholar
Zolyan, Mikayel. 2009. “Karabakh 2014 Scenarios.” In Karabakh 2014. Six Analysts on the Future of the Nagorny Karabakh Peace Process, edited by Resources, Conciliation, 48–53. London: Conciliation Resources.Google Scholar
Zürcher, Christoph. 2007. The Post-Soviet Wars. New York: New York University Press.Google Scholar