This article first examines the trends and prospects in the various elements of home demand and the prospects for exports in the light of world developments. It then looks at the effects on production and imports, and reviews the changes in costs and prices. After discussing the general outlook and the Budget, it analyzes the employment position in some detail.

Having stayed at about 2.4 per cent (seasonally adjusted) from October to December last year, unemployment (including the temporarily stopped) rose to 2.6 per cent in January and February but then fell back to the rate of 2.4 per cent in March.

In the past year, the high rate at which gold has flowed out of the United States has attracted attention. There has been talk of the ‘weakness’ of the dollar and even of the possibilities of devaluation. This article examines the developments in the United States balance of payments which underlie these opinions.

Any government in this country which pursues a policy of economic expansion needs to consider how big an increase in imports would result from it. It has been suggested that there has been a recent tendency in Britain for imports to rise faster than national output, and that this tendency justified restrictions on expansion in the recent past and may justify further restrictions in the future.