Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-dsjbd Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-28T06:54:52.256Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Prospects for the UK Economy

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

Ehsan Khoman  and
Simon Kirby
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Extract

During 2006, output in the UK economy grew by 2.8 per cent and the robust pace of economic growth has continued in the first half of this year. After a first estimate of quarterly GDP growth of 0.7 per cent into the first quarter of this year, the official preliminary estimate suggests that the economy expanded by 0.8 per cent into the second quarter. The economy continues to be driven by business services and finance, although the production sector actually reported quarterly growth for the first time since the first quarter of 2006. The economy is now operating around full capacity, and has recovered from the weakness that was apparent in 2005. We have revised up our forecast for this year to 2.8 per cent per annum, from 2.7 per cent per annum in our April forecast. This is due to an upward revision to estimates of GDP growth at the end of 2006 and more robust growth than we had anticipated in the first half of this year. We expect growth of just below the trend rate for the remainder of the forecast period as domestic demand growth moderates.

Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 201 , July 2007 , pp. 37 - 54
Copyright
Copyright © 2007 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Barrell, R., Choy, A., Holland, D. and Riley, R. (2005), ‘The sterling effective exchange rate and other measures of UK competitiveness’, National Institute Economic Review, 191, pp. 54–63.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barrell, R., Choy, A. and Riley, R. (2003), ‘Consumption and housing wealth in the UK economy’, National Institute Economic Review, 186, pp. 53–6.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barrell, R., Khoman, E. and Kirby, S. (2007), ‘Evaluating forecast uncertainty’, National Institute Economic Review, 201, pp. 55–60CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barrell, R. and Kirby, S. (2007), ‘Managing a decline in inflation’, National Institute Economic Review, 200, pp. 53–5.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barrell, R., Riley, R. and Fitzgerald, J. (2007), ‘EU enlargement and migration: assessing the macroeconomic impacts’, NIESR Discussion Paper No. 292.Google Scholar
Beadle, J. (2007), ‘Modernising the UK's National Accounts’, Economic & Labour Market Review, 1, 4, pp. 32–8.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chamberlin, G., Clayton, T. and Farooqui, S. (2007), ‘New measures of UK private sector software investment’, Economic & Labour Market Review, 1, 5, pp. 17–28.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Khoman, E. and Weale, M. (2006), ‘The UK Savings Gap’, National Institute Economic Review, 198, pp. 97–111.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kirby, S. and Mitchell, J. (2006), ‘Prudence and UK Trend growth’, National Institute Economic Review, 197, pp. 58–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mitchell, J. (2003), ‘Should we be surprised the unreliability of real-time output gap estimates? Density estimates for the Euro Area?’, revised 2005, NIESR Discussion Paper 225.Google Scholar
Ruffles, D., Tily, G., Caplan, D. and Tudor, S. (2003), ‘VAT missing trade intra-Community fraud: the effect on balance of payments statistics and UK national accounts’, Economic Trends, 597, August, pp. 58–70.Google Scholar
Ruffles, D. and Williams, T. (2005), ‘Report on further research into the impact of missing trader fraud on UK trade statistics, Balance of Payments and National Accounts’, http://www.statistics.giv.uk/CCI/article.asp?ID-1066.Google Scholar