Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-8ctnn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-26T20:56:40.228Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

PROSPECTS FOR THE UK ECONOMY

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  28 July 2020

Cyrille Lenoël
Affiliation:
NIESR. E-mail: [email protected].
Rory Macqueen
Affiliation:
NIESR. E-mail: [email protected].
Garry Young
Affiliation:
NIESR. E-mail: [email protected].
Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Image of the first page of this content. For PDF version, please use the ‘Save PDF’ preceeding this image.'
Type
Forecast Summaries
Copyright
© National Institute of Economic and Social Research, 2020

Footnotes

We are grateful to Jagjit Chadha for helpful comments and suggestions, and to Patricia Sanchez Juanino for compiling the database. Unless otherwise stated, the source of all data reported in the figures and tables is the NiGEM database and forecast baseline. The UK forecast analysis was completed on 17 July 2020, more recent data are incorporated in the text.

References

REFERENCES

Anderson, A.L., Hansen, E.T., Johannesen, N. and Sheridan, A. (2020), ‘Pandemic, shutdown and consumer spending: lessons from Scandinavian Policy Responses to COVID-19’, CEPOS, May.Google Scholar
Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin Q3 (2012), ‘The distributional effects of asset purchases’.Google Scholar
Brzezinski, A., Kecht, V. and Van Dijcke, D. (2020), ‘The cost of staying open: voluntary social distancing and lockdowns in the US’, CEPR VoxEU, June.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chadha, J. (2020a), ‘Time for the UK’s ‘budgetarians’ to make way for some proper fiscal policy’,VoxEU, March.Google Scholar
Chadha, J. (2020b), ‘Commentary: monetary policy in troubled times’, National Institute Economic Review, May.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Crafts, N. and Mills, T. (2020), ‘Is the UK productivity slowdown unprecedented?’, National Institute Economic Review, February.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cross, R., Grinfeld, R. and Lamba, H. (2009), ‘Hysteresis and economics -taking the economic past into account’, IEEE Control Systems, 29(1).Google Scholar
Demirgüç-Kunt, A., Lokshin, M. and Torre, I. (2020),‘The sooner, the better: early lockdowns save more lives and livelihoods’, CEPR VoxEU, July.Google Scholar
Diewert, W.E. and Fox, K. (2020),‘Measuring real consumption and CPI bias under lockdown conditions’, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 27144, May.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Göcke, M. (2002), ‘Various concepts of hysteresis applied in economics’, Journal of Economic Surveys, 16(2).CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goolsbee, A. and Syverson, C. (2020), ‘Fear, lockdown, and diversion: comparing drivers of pandemic economic decline 2020’, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 27432.Google Scholar
Hacioglu, S., Känzig, D. and Surico, P. (2020), ‘Consumption in the time of Covid-19: evidence from UK transaction data’, Centre for Economic Policy Research Discussion Paper 14733, May.Google Scholar
Hantzsche, A. and Young, G. (2019),‘Prospects for the UK economy’, National Institute Economic Review, November.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hantzsche, A. and Young, G (2020), ‘Can Budget 2020 deliver growth?’, NIESR, March.Google Scholar
Jaravel, X. and O’Connell, M. (2020), ‘Inflation spike and falling product variety during the Great Lockdown’, Institute for Fiscal Studies Briefing Note BN292, June.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Joseph, A., Kneer, C., van Horen, N. and Salaheen, J. (2019), ‘All you need is cash: corporate cash holdings and investment after the financial crisis’, Bank of England Staff Working Paper 843.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kozlowski, J., Veldkamp, L. and Venkateswaran, V. (2020), ‘Scarring body and mind: the long-term belief-scarring effects of COVID-19’, National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 27439.Google Scholar
Malmendier, U. and Shen, L. (2020),‘Scarred consumption’, CEPR Discussion Paper 14937, June.Google Scholar
Rusticelli, E. (2014), ‘Rescuing the Phillips curve: making use of long-term unemployment in the measurement of the NAIRU’, OECD Journal: Economic Studies Volume 2014.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smith, R. (2020), ‘Government debt, deficits and interest rates 1870–2016’, Birkbeck College.Google Scholar
Tenreyro, S. (2020), ‘Covid-19 and the economy: what are the lessons so far?’, Speech given at London School of Economics webinar, July.Google Scholar