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Medium-Run Implications of Changing Demographic Structures for the Macro-Economy

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 January 2020

Yunus Aksoy ,
Henrique S. Basso  and
Ron P. Smith
Yunus Aksoy*
Affiliation:
Birkbeck, University of London
Henrique S. Basso*
Affiliation:
Banco de España
Ron P. Smith*
Affiliation:
Birkbeck, University of London
*
e-mail: [email protected]: [email protected]
e-mail: [email protected]
e-mail: [email protected]: [email protected]
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Abstract

While there may be an important, but transitory, cyclical component in the poor performance of the past decade, we will emphasise the secular forces: the impact of demographic structure and innovation. We draw on the empirical and theoretical work reported in Aksoy, Basso, Smith and Grasl (2015), ABSG, about the impact of changes in demographic structure on macroeconomic outcomes. This suggests that changes in age profile not only have significant implications for savings, investment, real interest rates and growth but also for innovation. The size of the effects seems plausible. For instance, if in 2015 the UK had the 1970 age structure, it would have added 0.68 percentage points to the long-run annual growth rate. The model suggests that the population ageing predicted for the next decades will tend to reduce output growth and real interest rates across OECD countries.

Keywords

population age profilemedium-termoutput growthinnovationlifecycleKuznets cyclesE32J11
Type
Research Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 241 , August 2017 , pp. R58 - R64
Copyright
Copyright © 2017 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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