Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-lj6df Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-09T01:21:36.907Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Immigration Policy from Post-War to Post-Brexit: How New Immigration Policy can Reconcile Public Attitudes and Employer Preferences

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 January 2020

Nathan Hudson-Sharp*
Affiliation:
NIESR

Abstract

As Britain prepares to leave the EU immigration policy has come to the top of the policy agenda. The Brexit vote was seen as a vote against free movement and new policies are aimed at introducing more restrictive controls. The report by the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) in September 2018 recommended little new provision for low-skilled migration post-Brexit (MAC, 2018). This was then adopted by the Home Office in its Immigration White Paper, published in November 2018 (Home Affairs Committee, 2018). The White Paper explicitly references public concerns that migrant labour reduces opportunities for British workers and undermines their pay and conditions. Yet employers have argued that they need to be able to continue to recruit lower, as well as highly skilled labour because the supply of British workers is insufficient. The paper explores the likely impact of proposed restrictions on immigration post-Brexit, using data from NIESR studies of employers and of the general public. It combines an assessment of what is needed to meet the needs of employers, the economy and to address public concerns, finding that there is more consensus than there is often considered to be.

Type
Research Articles
Copyright
Copyright © 2019 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

We would like to thank Scott Blinder and Rob Ford for their comments and the ESRC and Leverhulme Trust (Grant No. RG-2017-127) for funding the reaearch we present in the paper.

References

Blinder, B. (2015), ‘Imagined immigration: the impact of different meanings of Immigrants' in public opinion and policy debates in Britain’, Political Studies, 63, pp. 80100.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blinder, B. (2018), ‘Immigration by category: workers, students, family members, asylum applicants’, The Migration Observatory.Google Scholar
Blinder, B. and Markaki, M. (2018), ‘Public attitudes toward EU mobility and non-EU immigration: a distinction with little difference’, Working Paper, Reminder Project, August, available at: https://www.reminder-project.eu/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/D10.2-Final-June-2018-with-cover.pdf.Google Scholar
Blinder, B. and Richards, R. (2018), ‘Briefing: UK public opinion toward immigration: overall attitudes and level of concern’, Migration Observatory, available at: http://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/BRIEFING-Public-Opinion-pdf.pdf.Google Scholar
Blinder, B., Ruhs, R. and Vargas-Silva, S. (2011), ‘Thinking behind the numbers: understanding public opinion on immigration in Britain’, The Migration Observatory.Google Scholar
Blinder, B. and Schaffner, S. (2019, forthcoming), ‘Going with the flows: information that changes Americans’ immigration preferences, International Journal of Public Opinion Research.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cerna, C. (2011), ‘Selecting the best and brightest’, Migration Observatory, policy primer, University of Oxford.Google Scholar
Chan, C., Clarke, C. and Dainty, D. (2008), ‘Staff shortages and immigration in construction, a report prepared for the Migration Advisory Committee’, Migration Advisory Committee (MAC), London.Google Scholar
CIPD (2014), The Growth of EU Labour. Assessing the Impact on the UK Labour Market, CIPD.Google Scholar
CIPD (2015), Labour Market Outlook: Views from Employers, Autumn 2015 report.Google Scholar
CIPD (2018), Labour Market Outlook, London: CIPDGoogle Scholar
Curtice, C. and Tipping, T. (2018), ‘Europe’, in Phillips, P., Curtice, C., Phillips, P. and Perry, P. (eds) (2018), British Social Attitudes: The 35th Report, London: The National Centre for Social Research, available at: http://www.bsa.natcen.ac.uk/media/39250/bsa35_europe.pdf.Google Scholar
Davies, D. and Rolfe, R. (2017), ‘Facing the future: tackling post-Brexit labour and skills shortages’, CIPD and NIESR.Google Scholar
Dolton, D., Nguyen, N., Rolfe, R. and Castellanos, C. (2018), ‘Brexit and the Health & Social Care Workforce in the UK’, Report to the Cavendish Coalition, NIESR.Google Scholar
Duffy, D. and Frere-Smith, S. (2014), Perceptions and Reality: Public Attitudes to Immigration, London: IPSOS-MORI Social Research Institute.Google Scholar
Ford, F. (2011), ‘Acceptable and unacceptable immigrants: how opposition to immigration in Britain is affected by migrants' region of origin’, Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 37, pp. 1017–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ford, F. (2012), ‘Parochial and cosmopolitan Britain: examining the social divide in reactions to immigration’, Transatlantic Trends: Immigration Focus Papers, German Marshall Fund.Google Scholar
Ford, F. (2018), ‘How have attitudes to immigration changed since Brexit’, Blog post. https://medium.com/@robfordmancs/how-have-attitudes-to-immigration-changed-since-brexit-e37881f55530.Google Scholar
Ford, F. and Heath, H. (2014), ‘Immigration: a nation divided?’, in British Social Attitudes: the 31st Report, London: NatCen Social Research.Google Scholar
Ford, F. and Lymperopoulou, L. (2017) Immigration: how attitudes in the UK compare with Europe, in British Social Attitudes 34.Google Scholar
Ford, F. and Mellon, M. (2019), ‘The skills premium and the ethnic premium: a cross-national experiment on European attitudes to immigrants’, Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gaston, G. (2018), Citizens' Voices Insights from focus groups conducted in England for the project, At Home in One's Past, DEMOS.Google Scholar
Geddes, G. (2003), The Politics of Migration and Immigration in Europe, London: Sage Publications Ltd.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Geddes, G. (2008), ‘Staff shortages and immigration in food processing’, A report prepared for the Migration Advisory Committee, London: Migration Advisory Committee (MAC).Google Scholar
George, G., Lalani, L., Mason, M., Rolfe, R. and Bondibene, B. (2012), ‘Skilled immigration and strategically important skills in the UK economy, Final report to the Migration Advisory Committee’, February.Google Scholar
Goodwin, G. and Heath, H. (2016), Brexit Vote Explained: Poverty, Low Skills and Lack of Opportunities, York: Joseph Rowntree Foundation.Google Scholar
Green, G., Atfield, A., Adam, A. and Staniewicz, S. (2013), ‘Determinants of the composition of the workforce in low skilled sectors of the economy’, Warwick Institute for Employment Research report to the Migration Advisory Committee.Google Scholar
Grigorieff, G., Roth, R. and Ubfal, U. (2016), ‘Does information change attitudes towards immigrants? Representative evidence from survey experiments’, Discussion Paper Series, IZA DP No. 10419, Institute of Labour Economics.Google Scholar
Hainmueller, H. and Hiscox, H.J. (2007), ‘Educated preferences: explaining attitudes towards immigration in Europe’, International Organization, 61(2), pp. 399442.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hainmueller, H. and Hiscox, H.J. (2010), ‘Attitudes toward highly skilled and low-skilled immigration: evidence from a survey experiment’, American Political Science Review, 104, pp. 6184.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hansen, H. (1999), ‘The Kenyan Asians, British politics, and the Commonwealth Immigrants Act, 1968’, The Historical Journal, 42, 3, September, pp. 809–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Home Affairs Committee (2018), Policy Options for Future Migration from the European Economic Area: Interim Report, London: HMSO.Google Scholar
Home Office (2018), The UK's Future Skills-based Immigration System (White Paper), London: HMSO.Google Scholar
Hopkins, H.J., Sides, S. and Citrin, C. (2016), ‘The muted consequences of correct information about immigration’, available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2798622.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
House of Commons Science and Technology Committee (2018), An Immigration System that Works for Science and Innovation: Eighth Report of Session 2017–19, London: HMSO.Google Scholar
Ipsos MORI (2018), ‘Attitudes towards immigration have softened since referendum but most still want to see it reduced’, available at: https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/attitudes-immigrationhave-softened-referendum-most-still-want-see-it-reduced.Google Scholar
Ipsos MORI (2019), ‘A world apart? Global study for the BBC Crossing Divides season’, available at: https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2019-03/bbc_crossing_divides_2019_0.pdf.Google Scholar
Kaufmann, K. (2017), ‘Levels or changes? Ethnic context, immigration and the UK Independence Party vote’, Electoral Studies, 48, pp. 5769.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lawrence, L.D. and Sides, S. (2014), ‘The consequences of political innumeracy’, Research & Politics, 1(2), pp.18.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
London First (2018), Building the Workforce of the Future, London: London First.Google Scholar
McCollum, M. and Findlay, F. (2015), ‘Flexible workers for flexible jobs? The labour market function of A8 migrant labour in the UK’, Work Employment & Society, 29(3), pp. 427–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McGuinness, M. and Hawkins, H. (2016), ‘Impacts of immigration on population and the economy’, House of Commons Library, Briefing Paper, July 2016.Google Scholar
Migration Advisory Committee (2018), EEA migration in the UK: Final Report, September.Google Scholar
Newman, N., Booth, B., and Shankar, S. (2017), ‘Beyond the Westminster bubble: what people really think about immigration’, Open Europe, available at: http://2ihmoy1d3v7630ar9h2rsglp-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/Open-Europe_Immigration-Public-Opinion_211217.pdf.Google Scholar
Oxford Economics (2018), The Fiscal Impact of Immigration on the UK: A report for the Migration Advisory Committee, June.Google Scholar
Portes, P. (2018), ‘The economic impacts of immigration’, 6 April, available at: https://voxeu.org/article/economic-impacts-immigration-uk.Google Scholar
Rienzo, R. (2018), ‘Migrants in the UK labour market: an overview’, Migration Observatory, University of Oxford.Google Scholar
Rolfe, R. (2016), ‘Employers' responses to Brexit: the perspective of employers in low skilled sectors’, London: NIESR.Google Scholar
Rolfe, R. (2017), ‘Preference, flexibility and power in the employment of EU migrants in low-skilled sectors’, Social Policy and Society, 16, 4.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rolfe, R., Portes, P. and Hudson-Sharp, S. (2016), ‘The impact of free movement on the labour market: case studies of hospitality, food processing and construction’, London: NIESR.Google Scholar
Rolfe, H, Ahlstrom-Vij, V., Hudson-Sharp, S. and Runge, R. (2018), ‘The role of evidence and perceptions in the Brexit immigration debate’, Leverhulme Trust, NIESR and Birkbeck.Google Scholar
Ruhs, R. and Anderson, A. (2011), ‘Responding to employers: labour shortages and immigration policy’, Migration Observatory policy primer, COMPAS, University of Oxford.Google Scholar
Rutter, R. and Carter, C. (2018), ‘National conversation on immigration: final report’, British Future and HOPE not hate, September.Google Scholar
Scott, S. (2013), ‘Migrant–local hiring queues in the UK Food industry’, Population, Space and Place, 19(5), pp. 459–71.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sides, S. and Citrin, C. (2007), ‘European opinion about immigration: the role of identities, interests and information’, British Journal of Political Science, 37, pp. 477504.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sumption, S. and Fernandez, Reino R. (2018), ‘Exploiting the opportunity? Low-skilled work migration after Brexit’, Migration Observatory, University of Oxford.Google Scholar
Vargas-Silva, S. (2016), ‘Potential implications of admission criteria for EU nationals coming to the UK’, Migration Observatory, University of Oxford.Google Scholar
Wadsworth, W. (2014), ‘Immigration, the European Union and the UK labour market’, Centre for Economic Performance (CEP) Analysis, May.Google Scholar
Williams, W. (2015), ‘Patriality, work permits and the European Economic Community: the introduction of the 1971 Immigration Act’, Contemporary British History, 29(4), pp. 508–38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar