Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-gxg78 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-29T10:41:49.007Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Global Economic Outlook

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  08 February 2023

Corrado Macchiarelli ,
Barry Naisbitt ,
Janine Boshoff ,
Ian Hurst ,
Iana Liadze ,
Xuxin Mao  and
Patricia Sanchez Juanino
Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

An abstract is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. As you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.
Image of the first page of this content. For PDF version, please use the ‘Save PDF’ preceeding this image.'
Type
World Forecast
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 260: THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF DEVOLUTION IN, AND SECESSION FROM, THE UK – PART ONE , Spring 2022 , e2
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2023. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of National Institute Economic Review

Footnotes

1

We would like to thank Jagjit Chadha and Stephen Millard for helpful comments and Patricia Sanchez Juanino and Joanna Nowinska for preparing the charts and the database underlying the forecast. The forecast was completed on 20 April 2022. Exchange rate, interest rate and equity price assumptions are based on information available to 14 April 2022. Unless otherwise specified, the source of all data reported in tables and figures is the NiGEM database and NIESR forecast baseline. All questions and comments related to the forecast and its underlying assumptions should be addressed to Iana Liadze ([email protected]).

References

Axioglou, C., and Wozniak, P. (2022) “The impact of shortages on manufacturing in the EU: Evidence from the Business and Consumer Surveys”, VoxEU.org, 18 January 2022Google Scholar
Bachmann, R., Baqaee, D., Bayer, C., Kuhn, M., Löschel, A., Moll, B., Peichl, A., Pittel, K., and Schularick, M. (2022), ‘What if Germany is cut off from Russian energy?’ VoxEU, 25 March.Google Scholar
Bundesbank (2022), ‘War against Ukraine: energy embargo could significantly weaken German economy’, 22 April at https://www.bundesbank.de/en/tasks/topics/war-against-ukraine-energy-embargo-could-significantly-weaken-germaneconomy-889696 Google Scholar
Çakmaklı, C., Demiralp, S., Kalemli-Özcan, S., Yeşiltaş, S., and Yıldırım, M.A. (2021), “The Economic Case for Global Vaccinations: An Epidemiological Model with International Production Networks”, NBER Working Paper 28395CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Daly, K. and Chankova, R.D. (2021), “Inflation in the aftermath of wars and pandemics”, VoxEU, 15 April.Google Scholar
Danninger, S., Kang, K. and Poirson, H. (2022), “Emerging Economies Must Prepare for Fed Policy Tightening”, IMF Blog, 10 January, available at https://blogs.imf.org/2022/01/10/emerging-economies-must-prepare-for-fed-policy-tightening/ Google Scholar
Giacon, R., and Macchiarelli, C. (2021), “Serendipity or a missed chance? On the interaction between vaccine distribution and the EU Recovery Funds”, The Economists’ Voice, forthcoming.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goodhart, C. and Pradhan, M. (2021), “What may happen when central banks wake up to more persistent inflation?”, VoxEU.org, 25 October.Google Scholar
Gros, D. and Ounnas, A. (2021), “Labour market responses to the Covid-19 crisis in the United States and Europe”, CEPS Working Document No. 2021-01, AprilGoogle Scholar
Hale, T., Petherick, A., Phillips, T. and Webster, S. (2020), “Variation in government responses to COVID-19”, Version 3.0, Blavatnik School of Government Working Paper, 31 March, available at: www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/covidtracker.Google Scholar
Haache, G. and Liadze, I. (2017), ‘US monetary policy and its impact on emerging market economies’, National Institute Economic Review, 240, May, F62-3.Google Scholar
Holland, D. and Liadze, I. (2020), “Quantifying the global macroeconomic spillovers of illness and lockdown measures”, National Institute Economic Review, 252, May, F61–62.Google Scholar
Holland, D., Sanchez Juanino, P., Liadze, I. and Naisbitt, B. (2021a), “Modelling the impact of the American Rescue Plan in NiGEM”, National Institute Global Economic Outlook, NiGEM Topical Feature 1, Series B. No.2, Spring.Google Scholar
Holland, D., Küҫük, H. and Macchiarelli, C. (2021b), “Financial spillovers of the American Rescue Plan on emerging markets”, National Institute Global Economic Outlook, NiGEM Topical Feature 2, Series B. No.2, Spring.Google Scholar
Küçük, H. (2020), “Effects of Covid-19 in emerging economies”, National Institute Economic Review, 253, August, F59–63.Google Scholar
Liadze, I. and Macchiarelli, C. (2021), “Simulating the effect of the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility in NiGEM”, National Institute Global Economic Outlook, NiGEM Topical Feature, Series B. No. 3, Summer.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Liadze, I., Macchiarelli, C., Mortimer-Lee, P. and Sanchez Juanino, P. (2022a), “The economic costs of the Russia - Ukraine conflict”, NIESR Policy Paper 32, March.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Liadze, I., Macchiarelli, C., Naisbitt, B. and Sanchez Juanino, P. (2022b), “Monetary policy spillovers: the Euro Area and the United States in NiGEM”, National Institute Global Economic Outlook, NiGEM Topical Feature, Series B. No. 1, Winter.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Liadze, I. and Naisbitt, B (2018), “Global spillover effects of US monetary tightening”, National Institute Economic Review, 246, November, F42–3.Google Scholar
Macchiarelli, C. (2021), “How is Covid-19 affecting international travel and tourism?”, The Economics Observatory, 22 AprilGoogle Scholar
Macchiarelli, C. (2022), “UK short-term interest rate expectations highlight upside inflation risks”, NIESR Term Premium Tracker No. 4, Mar.Google Scholar
Mao, X., Naisbitt, B. and Whyte, K. (2019), “Recent inflation trends in emerging economies”, National Institute Economic Review, November, 250, F50–51.Google Scholar
Mortimer-Lee, P. (2022), “US inflation: is it back to the future?”, National Institute Global Economic Outlook, Series B, No. 1, Winter, pp 21–27.Google Scholar
Naisbitt, B. (2020b), “Vulnerability from Debt in the Coronavirus Crisis”, NIESR Policy Paper, No. 20, May.Google Scholar
Naisbitt, B. and Whyte, K. (2020), “A new kind of economic downturn – a lockdown recession affecting services”, National Institute Economic Review, November, 254, F57–59.Google Scholar
Naisbitt, B. and Whyte, K. (2021), “Services rebound from the Covid-19 shock”, National Institute Global Economic Outlook, Autumn, pp 32-37.Google Scholar
OECD (2021), Sovereign Borrowing Outlook 2021, May.Google Scholar
Sanchez-Juanino, P., Macchiarelli, C. and Naisbitt, B. (2021), “US inflation – peaking soon?”, National Institute Global Economic Outlook, Autumn, pp 24–31.CrossRefGoogle Scholar