Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-rdxmf Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-27T11:31:59.093Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Global Economic Outlook: Slowing growth, rising inflation fears

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  02 December 2021

Abstract

Image of the first page of this content. For PDF version, please use the ‘Save PDF’ preceeding this image.'
Type
World Forecast
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of National Institute Economic Review

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

1

We would like to thank Jagjit Chadha and Paul Mortimer-Lee for helpful comments and Patricia Sanchez Juanino for preparing the charts and the database underlying the forecast. The forecast was completed on 24 October 2021. Exchange rate, interest rate and equity price assumptions are based on information available to 14 October 2021. Unless otherwise specified, the source of all data reported in tables and figures is the NiGEM database and NIESR forecast baseline. All questions and comments related to the forecast and its underlying assumptions should be addressed to Iana Liadze ([email protected]).

References

Allen, B., Chadha, J. and Turner, P. (2021). ‘Keeping monetary policy safe from fiscal encroachment ‘, National Institute Economic Review 257, Summer, July.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, The Economics Daily, ‘Labor force participation declines for mothers and fathers in 2020’, available at https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2021/labor-force-participation-declines-for-mothers-and-fathers-in-2020.htm (visited October 14, 2021).Google Scholar
Çakmaklı, C., Demiralp, S., Kalemli-Özcan, S., Yeşiltaş, S., and Yıldırım, M.A. (2021), ‘The Economic Case for Global Vaccinations: An Epidemiological Model with International Production Networks’, NBER Working Paper 28395CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y. and Ulate, M. (2017), ‘The Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential Output’, NBER Working Paper 23580, National Bureau of Economic Research.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Daly, K. and Chankova, R.D. (2021), ‘Inflation in the aftermath of wars and pandemics’, VoxEU, 15 April.Google Scholar
Dixon, H. (2020), ‘Measuring inflation in the pandemic’, NIESR blog, 17 June.Google Scholar
Giacon, R., Macchiarelli, C. (2021), ‘Serendipity or a missed chance? On the interaction between vaccine distribution and the EU Recovery Funds’, The Economists’ Voice, forthcoming.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goodhart, C., Pradhan, M. (2021), ‘What may happen when central banks wake up to more persistent inflation?’, VoxEU.org, 25 October.Google Scholar
Gros, D. and Ounnas, A. (2021), ‘Labour market responses to the Covid-19 crisis in the United States and Europe’, CEPS Working Document No. 2021-01, AprilGoogle Scholar
Hale, T., Petherick, A., Phillips, T. and Webster, S. (2020), ‘Variation in government responses to Covid-19’, Version 3.0, Blavatnik School of Government Working Paper, 31 March, available at: www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/covidtracker.Google Scholar
Hodbod, A., Hommes, C., Huber, S. and Salle, I. (2021), ‘The Covid-19 Consumption Game-Changer: Evidence from a Large-Scale Multi-Country Survey’. ECB Working Paper No. 2599Google Scholar
Holland, D., Juanino, P.S., Liadze, I. and Naisbitt, B. (2021), ‘Modelling the impact of the American Rescue Plan in NiGEM’, National Institute Global Economic Outlook, NiGEM Topical Feature 1, Series B. No.2, Spring.Google Scholar
Holland, D., Küҫük, H. and Lenoël, C. (2021), ‘Modelling the change in US monetary policy framework in NiGEM’, National Institute Global Economic Outlook, NiGEM Topical Feature 2, Series B. No.1.Google Scholar
Holland, D., Küҫük, H. and Macchiarelli, C. (2021), ‘Financial spillovers of the American Rescue Plan on emerging markets’, National Institute Global Economic Outlook, NiGEM Topical Feature 2, Series B. No.2, Spring.Google Scholar
Holland, D. and Liadze, I. (2020), ‘Quantifying the global macroeconomic spillovers of illness and lockdown measures’, National Institute Economic Review, 252, May, F6162.Google Scholar
Holland, D., Macchiarelli, C. and Mao, X. (2021), ‘Trade and the unequal race to the Covid-19 vaccine’, National Institute Global Economic Outlook, NiGEM Topical Feature 1, Series B. No.1.Google Scholar
International Monetary Fund (2021), ‘World Economic Outlook: Recovery During a Pandemic’, Washington DC.Google Scholar
Kohlscheen, E., Mojon, B. and Rees, D. (2020), ‘The macroeconomic spillover effects of the pandemic on the global economy’, BIS Bulletin No. 4, 6 April.Google Scholar
Küçük, H. (2020), ‘Effects of Covid-19 in emerging economies’, National Institute Economic Review, 253, August, F5963.Google Scholar
Lenoël, C. and Macchiarelli, C. (2020), ‘Is it all quiet on the inflation front?’, NIESR blog, 10 September.Google Scholar
Liadze, I. and Hacche, G. (2017), ‘US monetary policy and its impact on emerging market economies’, National Institute Economic Review, 240, May, F62–3.Google Scholar
Liadze, I. and Macchiarelli, C. (2021), ‘Simulating the effect of the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility in NiGEM’, National Institute Global Economic Outlook, NiGEM Topical Feature, Series B. No. 3, Summer.Google Scholar
Liadze, I. and Naisbitt, B (2018), ‘Global spillover effects of US monetary tightening’, National Institute Economic Review, 246, November, F42–3.Google Scholar
Mao, X., Naisbitt, B. and Whyte, K. (2019), ‘Recent inflation trends in emerging economies’, National Institute Economic Review, November, 250, F5051.Google Scholar
Macchiarelli, C. (2021), ‘How is Covid-19 affecting international travel and tourism?’, The Economics Observatory, 22 AprilGoogle Scholar
Naisbitt, B. (2018), ‘The risks of rising global indebtedness’, National Institute Economic Review, 245, August.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Naisbitt, B. (2020a), ‘Vulnerability from debt in the coronavirus crisis’, National Institute Economic Review, 252, May.Google Scholar
Naisbitt, B. (2020b), ‘Vulnerability from Debt in the Coronavirus Crisis’, NIESR Policy Paper, No. 20, May.Google Scholar
Naisbitt, B. and Whyte, K. (2020), ‘A new kind of economic downturn – a lockdown recession affecting services’, National Institute Economic Review, November, 254, F5759.Google Scholar
OECD (2021), Sovereign Borrowing Outlook 2021, May.Google Scholar