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Forecast Comparisons

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 March 2020

Ray Barrell ,
Simon Kirby  and
Robert Metz
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Abstract

This paper compares the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) forecasts for output, inflation and key public sector finance variables against the corresponding forecasts from HM Treasury (HMT), the Bank of England (Bank) and the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS). We find that NIESR outperforms, on average, other major bodies in its forecasts for output and in particular inflation where simple scores are used. It also performs well on the forecasting of the government current budget surplus but not public sector net borrowing. Statistical estimates of accuracy provide a less clear picture but their reliability is blighted by the small sample size.

Keywords

evaluating forecastsoutput forecastinginflation forecastingpublic sector finance forecastingC53E17
Type
Articles
Information
National Institute Economic Review , Volume 193 , July 2005 , pp. 70 - 74
Copyright
Copyright © 2005 National Institute of Economic and Social Research

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References

Pain, N., Riley, R. and Weale, M. (2001), ‘The performance of the National Institute's UK forecasts’, National Institute Economic Review, 178, October.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Poulizac, D., Weale, M. and Young, G. (1996), ‘The performance of National Institute economic forecasts’, National Institute Economic Review, 156, pp. 55–62.CrossRefGoogle Scholar